caulfield12 Posted January 14, 2009 Share Posted January 14, 2009 (edited) http://www.replacementlevel.com/index.php/...ected_standings Things to keep in mind... 1) It's from a Yankees' blog, so there's lots of NYC/Boston bias built in...although the numbers supposedly come from Hardball Times. 2) Almost 3 90 win teams in the AL East...although this has happened a couple of times recently (06 Central, 02 AL West) 3) The White Sox are far from finished...we hope...in setting their roster 4) Projections for young Sox players are very difficult to make (well, just being optimistic!) 5) The A's over the Angels, and nobody finishing over .500 in the AL West? 6) SF Giants to go on a tear, well, maybe...with Manny Ramirez and dumping Zito/Rowand somehow From what I've read, the Vegas line for the White Sox is somewhere around 80-82 wins. I wonder where BP will come in this year? If they predict 72 wins again, everyone will freak out, because that was the exact correct prediction in 2007. Of course, they were very wrong last year and in 2005...as well as 2004, for example. This is kind of like the Sox "doomsday" scenario...but pretty unlikely: 1) 2/4 (Konerko/AJ/Thome/Dye) get injured and miss significant portions of the season 2) One of Jenks/Dotel/Linebrink breaks down 3) Quentin is just an "average" major league LFer statistically and doesn't display MVP power or RBI numbers, or gets injured 4) Owens, Anderson, Fields and Getz/Lillibridge all prove not to be ready for full prime-time play 5) The back end of the rotation turns out to be the CR/AP pile that everyone's afraid of 6) KW decides to hold off on rushing Beckham, Viciedo, Flowers and Poreda into the mix...waiting for 2010. 7) The middle infield defense falls apart...and Fields commits 25+ errors...all bad signs for a team without many strikeout pitchers 8) Danks and/or Floyd regress or have to be sidelined 9) Alexei Ramirez has a sophomore slump offensively and ends up with a 290 OBP and 675 OPS. 10) Getz, Lillibridge and Ramirez are all tried at leadoff, with each of them ending up freaking out like Swisher trying to deal with it...after Owens gets hurt in ST Edited January 14, 2009 by caulfield12 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoodAsGould Posted January 14, 2009 Share Posted January 14, 2009 according to that, 4 of the top 5 teams record wise will be in the AL East, a bit ridiculous if you ask me. Idonno predictions are meaningless, who saw Tampa winning that division or us for that matter this last season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaTank Posted January 14, 2009 Share Posted January 14, 2009 I'm really surprised that the Twins aren't projected to take first in our division. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chunk23 Posted January 14, 2009 Share Posted January 14, 2009 QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jan 14, 2009 -> 04:21 AM) http://www.replacementlevel.com/index.php/...ected_standings Things to keep in mind... 1) It's from a Yankees' blog, so there's lots of NYC/Boston bias built in...although the numbers supposedly come from Hardball Times. 2) Almost 3 90 win teams in the AL East...although this has happened a couple of times recently (06 Central, 02 AL West) 3) The White Sox are far from finished...we hope...in setting their roster 4) Projections for young Sox players are very difficult to make (well, just being optimistic!) 5) The A's over the Angels, and nobody finishing over .500 in the AL West? 6) SF Giants to go on a tear, well, maybe...with Manny Ramirez and dumping Zito/Rowand somehow From what I've read, the Vegas line for the White Sox is somewhere around 80-82 wins. I wonder where BP will come in this year? If they predict 72 wins again, everyone will freak out, because that was the exact correct prediction in 2007. Of course, they were very wrong last year and in 2005...as well as 2004, for example. The AL East is easily the best division in baseball. The Angels outplayed their pythag last year and regressed this offseason. Meanwhile, the A's have improved significantly. 6 The Giants have a great rotation, and really, the West is pretty weak. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrunkBomber Posted January 14, 2009 Share Posted January 14, 2009 8 games behind KC for last huh... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoxAce Posted January 14, 2009 Share Posted January 14, 2009 Even though the Taveras signing was a bit pukeable, the Reds will surprise alot of people this season, assuming Dusty doesn't f*** the kids' arms off. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted January 14, 2009 Author Share Posted January 14, 2009 Nobody really has a clue who will win the AL Central at this point. Cleveland has improved on paper the most, but Hafner and their bullpen (overall) are still question marks, as well as the defense of Peralta and DeRosa on that infield. Minnesota, as usual, has basically stood still, after making some interesting moves last offseason (the Young for Garza/Bartlett trade). Detroit, seemingly, MIGHT improve with that offense and if the pitching (both starting and bullpen) comes around. The Edwin Jackson move could turn out great, but going with Everett at SS on the cheap? Then there's Sheffield and Willis, Ordonez/Guillen/Polanco possibly aging a bit...whether Bonderman will come back at something close to his "prime" and whether Robertson will be out of baseball at the rate he's going. KC has made some really, really strange signings and wasted $10-12 million in the eyes of most, but if someone like Hochevar or Cortes really picks it up at the back of the rotation, to go with Meche, Greinke, Bannister and Davies/Duckworth, they might be at least an 85 win team. It's still very hard for me to believe they will be a high 80 win team. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted January 14, 2009 Author Share Posted January 14, 2009 QUOTE (SoxAce @ Jan 13, 2009 -> 11:35 PM) Even though the Taveras signing was a bit pukeable, the Reds will surprise alot of people this season, assuming Dusty doesn't f*** the kids' arms off. If they get Abreu, their young hitters play as well as they are capable/projected and the starting pitching holds up, they could definitely threaten for the Wild Card. But lots of things have to fall into place and break the right way for this to transpire. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
almagest Posted January 14, 2009 Share Posted January 14, 2009 QUOTE (SoxAce @ Jan 13, 2009 -> 10:35 PM) ...assuming Dusty doesn't f*** the kids' arms off.That is a disturbing mental image. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heads22 Posted January 14, 2009 Share Posted January 14, 2009 fat f***ing chance Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted January 14, 2009 Author Share Posted January 14, 2009 Well, if all those 10 implausible things I listed of the top of my head actually happened to the White Sox, and they ran the simulation 100 times as the claimed, well, the Sox theoretically COULD lose 70 games. But it would still be pretty difficult to do in our division, or the AL West. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scenario Posted January 14, 2009 Share Posted January 14, 2009 (edited) Here are last years' projections (2008 preseason) from the same site... ALCntrl W L RF RA DIV WC Cle07 91.0 71.1 852 739 54.5 3.5 Det07 90.4 71.6 901 792 42.5 13.8 KC07 75.0 87.0 779 862 2.0 0.0 Min07 73.7 88.3 727 816 1.0 1.0 ChA07 67.6 94.4 753 894 0.0 0.0 Edited January 14, 2009 by scenario Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoxAce Posted January 14, 2009 Share Posted January 14, 2009 Usually when were projected to suck, we usually do very well in the season. (vice versa on the projected to win) Not sayin it's gonna happen this year, but it'll be interesting to see how these kids were playing respond. They will also be fun to watch. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3E8 Posted January 14, 2009 Share Posted January 14, 2009 Do you guys realize these predictions are made using the roster we have right now? I think 72 wins is optimistic Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted January 14, 2009 Author Share Posted January 14, 2009 QUOTE (scenario @ Jan 13, 2009 -> 11:13 PM) Here are last years' projections (2008 preseason) from the same site... ALCntrl W L RF RA DIV WC Cle07 91.0 71.1 852 739 54.5 3.5 Det07 90.4 71.6 901 792 42.5 13.8 KC07 75.0 87.0 779 862 2.0 0.0 Min07 73.7 88.3 727 816 1.0 1.0 ChA07 67.6 94.4 753 894 0.0 0.0 Was that pretty similar to where Baseball Prospectus had us heading into 2008? I guess these kinds of things are fun to talk about at SoxFest and in the media and probably don't help convince the casual fan to go out and buy season tickets, but attendance is virtually always driven by where the Sox are at the beginning of late May anyway, not preseason projections. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmags Posted January 14, 2009 Share Posted January 14, 2009 White sox preseason predictions: either dead on or dead wrong. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThunderBolt Posted January 14, 2009 Share Posted January 14, 2009 What lineup are they running anyway? We have a lot of question marks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg775 Posted January 14, 2009 Share Posted January 14, 2009 I can't understand why KW hasn't moved one of our vet slow guys yet. Except for the no trade clause stuff. Now is the time to change the makeup of our everyday 9 a bit, and I don't mean just having Getz at second and Owens/Brian in cf. On paper, we don't look like a contender that is for sure. Unless our bullpen really really rallies. I mean if Danks, Floyd and Mark are unstoppable and our bullpen is great for once I guess we could surprise. I'd feel better if we had added one inning eater starter, take our chances with our current bullpen and add a stud center fielder and either a good third baseman or second baseman. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimbo's Drinker Posted January 14, 2009 Share Posted January 14, 2009 People will keep saying, dont worry its only January. Too bad, I am nervous that this lineup has more holes than any sox team I have seen in recent years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted January 14, 2009 Author Share Posted January 14, 2009 You can excuse KW for trying to re-establish the value of Fields at 3B...even trying Lillibridge/Getz/Nix at 2B. However, going into the season with the CF/leadoff issue and not adding at least one more veteran starting pitcher, those are kind of inexcusable IMO...IF IF IF the team as currently constituted goes into Opening Day exactly as is, as of January 14th, 2009. KW still has 2 1/2 months to make improvements, and there are still around 125 free agents and many non-tenders out there as well. All we can do is think positively, that the bottom of the market will continue to fall out. UNFORTUNATELY, that doesn't leave many options for solving those aforementioned CF and pitching problems. With the competition for Wolf, Garland, Pettitte, Sheets and Perez expected to now heat up again with Lowe receiving $60 million for 4 years (where the heck did the Liberty Media Group get that money to spend...you'd think they had changed places with the White Sox...hopefully the results over the last three years for the Braves don't mirror/echo our future as well!) That still leaves the BEST possible option as trading Dye or Konerko for younger/youngish pitching (as well as a leadoff hitter) and signing an Abreu/Dunn/Anderson/Griffey, Jr. for LF and moving CQ to RF. Or we give up our Type A compensation and bring in Orlando Hudson for one year...Hudson's market value and number of years/total value has shrunk from $48 million/4 years to now in the vicinity of a one year deal for $6-8 million, Dunn's demands for $56 million and four years notwithstanding. At least Hudson solves the 2B/leadoff issue and gives Lillibridge/Getz/Nix some time to get their games together...with Lillibridge at SS in Charlotte, Nix at 2B and maybe Getz as the utility player with the Sox unless they pick Eider Torres instead. Beckham plays SS at Birmingham or in the Carolina League to start the year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BearSox Posted January 14, 2009 Share Posted January 14, 2009 If we go into the season with our current roster, I would not be surprised. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthSideSox72 Posted January 14, 2009 Share Posted January 14, 2009 1. Making predictions about team standings before late March is absolutely pointless. You'd have better luck picking names out of a hat. 2. Conveniently, NYY is the one team who really seems to have bulked up their roster first, so naturally this blog would like to do standings NOW. 3. Evidence: QUOTE (scenario @ Jan 13, 2009 -> 11:13 PM) Here are last years' projections (2008 preseason) from the same site... ALCntrl W L RF RA DIV WC Cle07 91.0 71.1 852 739 54.5 3.5 Det07 90.4 71.6 901 792 42.5 13.8 KC07 75.0 87.0 779 862 2.0 0.0 Min07 73.7 88.3 727 816 1.0 1.0 ChA07 67.6 94.4 753 894 0.0 0.0 Conculsion: LOLOLOLOLOLOL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted January 14, 2009 Author Share Posted January 14, 2009 http://baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/ They say projected 2009 records...but this has to be last year's. A little bit more optimistic on the White Sox than many were, but stay well off the mark. They really missed the boat on Minnesota, though. Just wow! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BFirebird Posted January 14, 2009 Share Posted January 14, 2009 They are way off on some teams. The Twins always out perform their supposed lack of talent, and they still have Morneau and Mauer. The Marlins are going to challenge to win that division in my opinion. I don't remember who said it, but lots of people believe they have the best rotation in that division. The Sox probably won't be more than .500, but I cannot see them losing 90 games, even with the current roster. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Melissa1334 Posted January 14, 2009 Share Posted January 14, 2009 QUOTE (3E8 @ Jan 13, 2009 -> 11:26 PM) Do you guys realize these predictions are made using the roster we have right now? I think 72 wins is optimistic i couldnt agree more , 4th, 5th starters, 3b, 2b, cf, the health of pk, thome dye, cq.... i dont see how anyone should expect the experts or those websites from choosing us to finish 1st or 2nd. if the sox r truly going to go with the roster as it stands, might as well trade dye and the older players. we wont win anything this year. go all young. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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