The 2010 DH Slot -- What it is, what it isn't

[Vance Law]

And as far as letting some of the regulars get some rest, well that's what having a bench is for. Vizquel, Kotsay and Jones are fine bench players and I'm fine with them relieving a starter every now and than but having one of them in the lineup everyday is just unacceptable.

 

Precisely.

 

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

It's still the same thing. When you add it all up at the end of the year (assuming our roster stays healthy and we don't acquire or call up another bat) you're still going to be giving ABs that would normally go to a DH to Mark Kotsay and Andruw Jones. Everyone loves versatility and the ability to rest productive players with other productive players, but the issue is that there doesn't appear to be many hardcore Sox fans who think Kotsay and Jones will be productive. I'd absolutely love a rotating DH if Andruw Jones and Mark Kotsay were close to the same players they were several years ago, but they're not. Jones has fallen off the face of the earth and Kotsay can't stay healthy, nor can he play CF which is what made his offensive contributions so valuable in the past. Hopefully Kenny acts quickly if a change needs to be made.

 

I also don't think it's pessimistic in any way to doubt Kotsay and Jones. We're already hoping for rebounds from the following players: JJ Putz, Scott Linebrink, Tony Pena, Freddy Garcia, Mark Teahen, Alex Rios, and Carlos Quentin. We're hoping Konerko has at least a decent year which is no certainty either. In general I think it's safe to say that most Sox fans are very optimistic about Peavy's ability to adjust to the Cell, Beckham's development, Alexei putting his crappy Aprils and powerless 2009 2nd half behind him, Floyd's hip, Jenks' injury issues, Pierre's first AL season, Hudson's ability to pitch well as a rookie should we need him to fill a big hole in the pen or rotation, etc. I know that every team out there has question marks, but it seems like we have a ton, and it's hard to be optimistic about every player on this club. Kotsay and Jones appear to be the least likely of them all to produce the way an AL club needs it's DH to produce.

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

I think he'll be DHing a lot, probably most of the times time Pierre is hurting or needing rest against a LH starter.

Don't say that.

[gatnom]

It's still the same thing. When you add it all up at the end of the year (assuming our roster stays healthy and we don't acquire or call up another bat) you're still going to be giving ABs that would normally go to a DH to Mark Kotsay and Andruw Jones. Everyone loves versatility and the ability to rest productive players with other productive players, but the issue is that there doesn't appear to be many hardcore Sox fans who think Kotsay and Jones will be productive. I'd absolutely love a rotating DH if Andruw Jones and Mark Kotsay were close to the same players they were several years ago, but they're not. Jones has fallen off the face of the earth and Kotsay can't stay healthy, nor can he play CF which is what made his offensive contributions so valuable in the past. Hopefully Kenny acts quickly if a change needs to be made.

 

I also don't think it's pessimistic in any way to doubt Kotsay and Jones. We're already hoping for rebounds from the following players: JJ Putz, Scott Linebrink, Tony Pena, Freddy Garcia, Mark Teahen, Alex Rios, and Carlos Quentin. We're hoping Konerko has at least a decent year which is no certainty either. In general I think it's safe to say that most Sox fans are very optimistic about Peavy's ability to adjust to the Cell, Beckham's development, Alexei putting his crappy Aprils and powerless 2009 2nd half behind him, Floyd's hip, Jenks' injury issues, Pierre's first AL season, Hudson's ability to pitch well as a rookie should we need him to fill a big hole in the pen or rotation, etc. I know that every team out there has question marks, but it seems like we have a ton, and it's hard to be optimistic about every player on this club. Kotsay and Jones appear to be the least likely of them all to produce the way an AL club needs it's DH to produce.

 

Win.

[CyAcosta41]

It's still the same thing. When you add it all up at the end of the year (assuming our roster stays healthy and we don't acquire or call up another bat) you're still going to be giving ABs that would normally go to a DH to Mark Kotsay and Andruw Jones. . . . Kotsay and Jones appear to be the least likely of them all to produce the way an AL club needs it's DH to produce.

 

This is where I differ. I don't believe it's the same thing at all.

 

In the past, if you wanted to rest a regular like CQ, PK, or JD, the only way to get him that rest was by sitting him. Why? Because you had the prototype "DH is all I can do" type monopolizing the AB's coming out of the DH slot. So, as a consequence, two things happened, both of them bad: (1) there was a pronounced tendency to not rest these guys because of the fear of the steep drop-off when you did (resulting in tired fading players in the dog days of the season); and (2) when reality set in and it was recognized that you had to rest these guys, I think this is when we started seeing the beginnings of that dreaded "Sunday lineup" (the mindset seeming to be: let's rest the lot of them ... sure, we're likely to lose today ... but live to fight another day).

 

That was then (the old approach), this is now. In theory, now you can "rest" CQ, PK, Pierre, and even AJ (easier still if Retherford could become the 3rd string catcher/utility guy) without losing his bat altogether. Simply give each of these guys a day here or there at DH, or if they're really dragging a day off entirely followed by a block of days at DH. All AB's over the course of the season are not the same. If you implement "rest" intelligently (and to major league hitters, DH-ing for a few games is most definitely "rest"), you can have a more sensible way of giving a player say 600-700 plate appearances than another way of giving him the same number of plate appearances.

 

I think that's all this new theory is really about -- using flexibility to maximize the chances of overall lineup maximum performance. Let's be smarter about the 600 AB's for our most important guys; let's keep our bench uniformly sharp so we maximize their talents and have them ready as can be for the stretch and post-season; let's not give away games by the Sunday lineup.

 

I recognize that many of us might not like the talent level of our bench (I happen to think it's league average at worst, but with a chance of being significantly better -- can you hear me Andruw Jones?); lots of us might think that Ozzie might not have the managerial abilities or discipline to implement this new philosophy. I also believe Sox fans as a whole are traditionally very aware of the limitations of our players (starters and bench), but don't spend nearly as much time analyzing the rosters of other elite teams (and you'll find true "dog" players on every team's bench -- far inferior, in my mind, to the much better than we usually have bench now).

 

But, that aside, I have no doubt whatsoever that this is their plan. In the end, we arguably give some of our aging or injury-starters the best chance to put up strong numbers. Yes, when we pull them out of a defensive position and into the DH slot we're going to give AB's to players like Jones and Kotsay. But that was going to happen anyway. At least now, on those games we have a better DH in Quentin, Konerko, and occasionally Pierre, then we would have had for 2010-model Jim Thome. If we go with this approach all year, I think the overall numbers produced by the six or seven headed monster slotting in as our DH will be very strong. And that doesn't even factor in the benefit provided by sliding these guys over to DH now and then, giving them the chance for real, intelligent, and meaningful rest, and staying out of this Sunday lineup mentality.

 

I'm repeating myself and am not trying to convince anybody that this will work. Reasonable minds can differ. Like Rongey, I think we're likely a better offensive team than most people think. Sure, we need guys like Rios and Q to return to form. I don't think this is a real leap of faith. But, I think we're better than people think even with realistic projections for a guy like Andruw Jones. And if Jones somehow channels the ghosts of Oscar Gamble, Eric Soderholm, and Ellis Burks, then we'll have something special offensively to pair with what SHOULD BE (I remember a year like 1984 too vividly to be too confident of pitching projections) a truly special pitching staff.

 

I'm pumped for this year. I have no problem rooting for this team, this configuration, these guys. Go Sox.

[SoxAce]

This is where I differ. I don't believe it's the same thing at all.

 

In the past, if you wanted to rest a regular like CQ, PK, or JD, the only way to get him that rest was by sitting him. Why? Because you had the prototype "DH is all I can do" type monopolizing the AB's coming out of the DH slot. So, as a consequence, two things happened, both of them bad: (1) there was a pronounced tendency to not rest these guys because of the fear of the steep drop-off when you did (resulting in tired fading players in the dog days of the season); and (2) when reality set in and it was recognized that you had to rest these guys, I think this is when we started seeing the beginnings of that dreaded "Sunday lineup" (the mindset seeming to be: let's rest the lot of them ... sure, we're likely to lose today ... but live to fight another day).

 

That was then (the old approach), this is now. In theory, now you can "rest" CQ, PK, Pierre, and even AJ (easier still if Retherford could become the 3rd string catcher/utility guy) without losing his bat altogether. Simply give each of these guys a day here or there at DH, or if they're really dragging a day off entirely followed by a block of days at DH. All AB's over the course of the season are not the same. If you implement "rest" intelligently (and to major league hitters, DH-ing for a few games is most definitely "rest"), you can have a more sensible way of giving a player say 600-700 plate appearances than another way of giving him the same number of plate appearances.

 

I think that's all this new theory is really about -- using flexibility to maximize the chances of overall lineup maximum performance. Let's be smarter about the 600 AB's for our most important guys; let's keep our bench uniformly sharp so we maximize their talents and have them ready as can be for the stretch and post-season; let's not give away games by the Sunday lineup.

 

I recognize that many of us might not like the talent level of our bench (I happen to think it's league average at worst, but with a chance of being significantly better -- can you hear me Andruw Jones?); lots of us might think that Ozzie might not have the managerial abilities or discipline to implement this new philosophy. I also believe Sox fans as a whole are traditionally very aware of the limitations of our players (starters and bench), but don't spend nearly as much time analyzing the rosters of other elite teams (and you'll find true "dog" players on every team's bench -- far inferior, in my mind, to the much better than we usually have bench now).

 

But, that aside, I have no doubt whatsoever that this is their plan. In the end, we arguably give some of our aging or injury-starters the best chance to put up strong numbers. Yes, when we pull them out of a defensive position and into the DH slot we're going to give AB's to players like Jones and Kotsay. But that was going to happen anyway. At least now, on those games we have a better DH in Quentin, Konerko, and occasionally Pierre, then we would have had for 2010-model Jim Thome. If we go with this approach all year, I think the overall numbers produced by the six or seven headed monster slotting in as our DH will be very strong. And that doesn't even factor in the benefit provided by sliding these guys over to DH now and then, giving them the chance for real, intelligent, and meaningful rest, and staying out of this Sunday lineup mentality.

 

I'm repeating myself and am not trying to convince anybody that this will work. Reasonable minds can differ. Like Rongey, I think we're likely a better offensive team than most people think. Sure, we need guys like Rios and Q to return to form. I don't think this is a real leap of faith. But, I think we're better than people think even with realistic projections for a guy like Andruw Jones. And if Jones somehow channels the ghosts of Oscar Gamble, Eric Soderholm, and Ellis Burks, then we'll have something special offensively to pair with what SHOULD BE (I remember a year like 1984 too vividly to be too confident of pitching projections) a truly special pitching staff.

 

I'm pumped for this year. I have no problem rooting for this team, this configuration, these guys. Go Sox.

 

Another insightful poster. You'll fit it quite well here at soxtalk. :cheers

[caulfield12]

Ellis Burks was actually pretty good for the White Sox...we rehabilitated him and then lost him, if I remember correctly.

 

As KHP noted, at least 50-60% of those at-bats are going to be going to Jones and Kotsay. There's no way around it...now maybe it does sound BETTER to look at other players slotting in there to maximize the match-ups and rest the regulars AND avoid the Sunday line-up surrenders (we saw that a lot in 2005, too), then those are all legitimate arguments and valid to KW or he wouldn't have signed off on this whole new conceptualization of the offense from Ozzie.

 

Then there's the elephant in the conversation...CQ's health, which player is he, the 2008 or 2009 version?

 

If you told me Carlos Quentin was going to be the everyday DH and that Andruw Jones would play RF close to everyday (which is scary enough), at least that protects the most important bat in the line-up from injury or re-injury. I don't know if I would go as far as wanting Jordan Danks to play RF in 2010, but there's no doubt Quentin is the one bat we can't afford to lose.

 

Almost everything has to go perfectly with this offense for it to get to 750 or 775 runs. There are just too many things that can go wrong IMO.

Edited March 4, 2010 by caulfield12

[Dick Allen]

Whether Kotsay, Jones and Vizquel actually DH 100% or not, and they will obviously play the field, the bottom line is a bench-quality player will be in the line-up daily. It blows my mind White Sox fans are so opposed to guys who pretty much strickly DH and prefer older players who can't play every day anymore in the line up every day. This is a team that has employed 3 of the greatest DH only-type players in the history of the game. Another thing to consider, there's a lot of talk about Minnesota moving outdoors so they will lose their home field advantage, like the other team is playing in perfect conditions. What about the White Sox home field advantage? We have seen over the past years that they have played pretty well at home with a line up of sluggers. Will they lose their advantage? The years they hit less than 200 homers they really struggled, but of course, they were built to hit homers.

 

One thing that will occur. In most of the publications, USCF will become a much more pitcher friendly park in 2011.

Edited March 4, 2010 by Dick Allen

[NorthSideSox72]

Whether Kotsay, Jones and Vizquel actually DH 100% or not, and they will obviously play the field, the bottom line is a bench-quality player will be in the line-up daily. It blows my mind White Sox fans are so opposed to guys who pretty much strickly DH and prefer older players who can't play every day anymore in the line up every day. This is a team that has employed 3 of the greatest DH only-type players in the history of the game. Another thing to consider, there's a lot of talk about Minnesota moving outdoors so they will lose their home field advantage, like the other team is playing in perfect conditions. What about the White Sox home field advantage? We have seen over the past years that they have played pretty well at home with a line up of sluggers. Will they lose their advantage? The years they hit less than 200 homers they really struggled, but of course, they were built to hit homers.

 

One thing that will occur. In most of the publications, USCF will become a much more pitcher friendly park in 2011.

what?

 

[Dick Allen]

what?

If the White Sox pitching staff lives up to expectations and White Sox hitters hit significantly fewer home runs, when the books like BP come out next season, USCF won't be thought of as the launching pad its been considered the past 7 or 8 years.

[NorthSideSox72]

If the White Sox pitching staff lives up to expectations and White Sox hitters hit significantly fewer home runs, when the books like BP come out next season, USCF won't be thought of as the launching pad its been considered the past 7 or 8 years.

That can be easily corrected for in analysis.

 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

If Andruw Jones shows he can still swing a bat and field all this goes away and we all are happily proven wrong.

[CyAcosta41]

Whether Kotsay, Jones and Vizquel actually DH 100% or not, and they will obviously play the field, the bottom line is a bench-quality player will be in the line-up daily. It blows my mind White Sox fans are so opposed to guys who pretty much strickly DH and prefer older players who can't play every day anymore in the line up every day. This is a team that has employed 3 of the greatest DH only-type players in the history of the game.

 

If a bench-quality player IS in the line-up daily that might be more of an indictment of the quality of your starters, right? Perhaps you have starters who simply need the "blow" more than comparable starters on other teams (Konerko and Pierre come to mind), or others who give the appearance of being injury prone (hello Carlos Quentin, although I'm not yet sold that he's actually injury prone -- he just might have been unlucky for a bit). In any event, if you look through rosters throughout the majors, bench players do in fact play. They can't amass the PA's they do simply pinch-hitting every now and then. So, they're obviously starting a block of games over the course of the long MLB season. Given this reality, it just appears to me that done in this fashion, you maximize health and performance for starters and bench alike. Of course, where the Sox lose me with all of this is if Ozzie still manages to trot out the "Sunday Funnies." As unacceptable as that was in the past, it would be inexcusable now.

 

As for some of the mega-stars we've employed in the past as DH-only players, you're right, we have. But, we've either had these offensive players on the roster already before they turned into DH-only types (Harold, Hurt), or we've traded or signed them within a context of being able to reasonably trade or sign them (Thome). We don't have that guy right now. We apparently can't get him either (at least for what Kenny and the Sox think is reasonable). I'm in no way advocating the apparent 2010 approach as being somehow better than penciling in that offensive stud of a DH every game. You do that in a minute if you have that guy, figuring out a different approach to rest the remainder of your roster. But again, we don't have that guy. And I don't believe that present-day Thome is that guy (nor is JD that guy, and Dye gives no reason to think that he wants to be that guy). All these interesting and varied branches of this discussion aside, the only point I wanted to make with my original post was that we weren't simply penciling three substantially below league average for DH players into the DH slot, we evidently plan on using the flexibility afforded by the DH position as a way to maximize our roster as-is, not our roster as we hope it would be (or as it very well might become, if a trade-deadline deal nets a Berkman or a Dunn).

 

Won't this prove fascinating if we have a really good year and if our aggregate DH numbers (every PA by someone slotting in at DH over the course of the 162) are strong? By the way #15, thank you for having shared info from your inside sources over the years -- this information has always added a lot of color and context whenever we've been in player movement mode.

 

[caulfield12]

I'm not exactly sure how we could have "reasonably" traded Thome last year (or really in 2006-2008, because KW wouldn't have parted with the cash subsidy he was receiving from Pat Gillick)...we would have had to eat even more money than trading Paulie.

 

He was one of the highest paid players in the league with that option kicking in late in 2009.

[CyAcosta41]

I wasn't saying that we should have traded Thome AWAY. Sorry if my language was confusing.

 

I was saying the opposite -- once upon a time we already had Baines and Thomas and just slid them over to the DH-Only slot when circumstances made it necessary to do so; more recently, we traded FOR Thome when Kenny deemed he could get what he considered to be a stud DH-Only force at a reasonable price (players traded away; net cost of paying Thome going forward). When either of these situations occur, that's when DH-Only might be in the game plan. And it could occur soon -- perhaps a trade deadline deal nets a Berkman, Dunn, or similar; perhaps something still to come makes Konerko or Quentin a DH-Only option going forward.

 

But today, given that we don't have THAT GUY and further given that THAT GUY is evidently current price prohibitive, that's why we're seeing this more creative way of using the DH-slot as a flexible way to maximize overall roster performance of who we actually have (not who we might prefer to have).

[Ranger]

I know that every team out there has question marks, but it seems like we have a ton, and it's hard to be optimistic about every player on this club. Kotsay and Jones appear to be the least likely of them all to produce the way an AL club needs it's DH to produce.

 

 

Everybody always thinks their team has more question marks than every other team. In fact, I have a couple of friends that are Yankees fans that were furious with their pitching staff last year. All year, they were complaining about it. What's hilarious about it is that only two teams in the AL pitched better than they did in '09. The closer you are to a situation, the worse everything looks.

 

Second, I know I've said this before, but the Frank Thomas/David Ortiz-type DH days are just about over. AL teams don't have to have a bopper in that slot like they used to and they don't need him to produce quite like you're thinking. They just aren't the best offensive players in the lineup anymore.

[Eminor3rd]

That just means that when one of them isn't the DH, they'll be in the field!

[justBLAZE]

From USAToday:

GLENDALE, Ariz. (AP) — Chicago White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen plans to play outfielder-designated hitter Andruw Jones against left-handed pitchers this season. Beyond that, the White Sox lineup could included any combination of Jones, Mark Kotsay, Juan Pierre and Alex Rios in left field, center field and at DH.

 

Kotsay will be in the lineup at first base against some right-handers to spell Paul Konerko. Kotsay opens spring training games as the DH, with Jones in center field until Rios is back from a sore knee and able to play the field. Then Jones will rotate in at DH.

 

Guillen said: "If we see how those guys are swinging the bat better, they'll stay in the lineup. That position (DH) is going to be whoever is swinging the bat best and ... who needs a day off."

[Balta1701]

Second, I know I've said this before, but the Frank Thomas/David Ortiz-type DH days are just about over. AL teams don't have to have a bopper in that slot like they used to and they don't need him to produce quite like you're thinking. They just aren't the best offensive players in the lineup anymore.

You know Ranger...I'm going to be surprised if this holds true for long. The big thing right now may be the shift away from the DH this offseason...I'll bet that by the middle of this season, a number of the teams that think they're going to rotate the DH position will have wound up settling into a nearly full-time DH.

[WCSox]

It's not a sure thing that in order for them to be a World Series contender, they need to improve the DH. That position in the lineup may turn out to be just fine. And the offense, as a whole, could certainly be good enough for them to win the division, given the rest of the club. And winning the division is all it takes to become a WS contender.

 

Definitely, I would feel better about the situation going in if they had somebody else, but I haven't predetermined that it is going to be a miserable failure. In fact, I don't think it is. It could probably be better, but I don't think it's going to be nearly as bad as some people think it's going to be.

 

Agreed overall. I'm not expecting jack from the DH position this year, but I'm not missing the forest for the trees either. This team won't score 850 runs this year but, ironically, I think that they out-score last year's high-priced slugging "talent." If the Sox can score 740 runs this year and the pitching pans out as expected, they'll be competitive.

 

[bmags]

You know, I knew it would happen when it became clear this is what we had, but I really do tire of trying to be convinced that putting a combination of really bad offensive players in our offense consistently would make us better.

[Ranger]

You know Ranger...I'm going to be surprised if this holds true for long. The big thing right now may be the shift away from the DH this offseason...I'll bet that by the middle of this season, a number of the teams that think they're going to rotate the DH position will have wound up settling into a nearly full-time DH.

 

 

If you're saying that it could someday shift back to the days where the DH is a power hitter that puts up big numbers, that very well could happen. But this has been a trend over the last few years, and I wouldn't be surprised if it continues as you'll likely see fewer big power guys come into the game like we had during the last couple of decades.

 

And, really, that's been the shift for most teams. Without the big guy as DH, teams are having to get more creative with their lineups. I mean, if you have David Ortiz (from a few years ago) on your team, there's no question he plays every day. Tough to take that bat out of a lineup for any reason, aside from injury or fatigue.

 

Something else to consider, though I don't know how much of an effect it's really had, but baseball is now in a post-amphetamines era. What's potentially significant about that is those greenies used to help many of these guys get through a full season (before they were officially banned, there were estimates that as many as 80% of players used them). There were quite a few players at the time that said that particular banning would have a greater effect on the game then people would realize. I remember Chipper Jones saying something along the lines of he thought greenies were more important than steroids (take that for what it's worth). While I'm sure players can find something to help get them through, I would imagine that teams are having to find ways to get guys some rest here and there while the season goes on. If that means you get days off from the field because of a rotating DH, then that's one way.

[southsider2k5]

If you're saying that it could someday shift back to the days where the DH is a power hitter that puts up big numbers, that very well could happen. But this has been a trend over the last few years, and I wouldn't be surprised if it continues as you'll likely see fewer big power guys come into the game like we had during the last couple of decades.

 

And, really, that's been the shift for most teams. Without the big guy as DH, teams are having to get more creative with their lineups. I mean, if you have David Ortiz (from a few years ago) on your team, there's no question he plays every day. Tough to take that bat out of a lineup for any reason, aside from injury or fatigue.

 

Something else to consider, though I don't know how much of an effect it's really had, but baseball is now in a post-amphetamines era. What's potentially significant about that is those greenies used to help many of these guys get through a full season (before they were officially banned, there were estimates that as many as 80% of players used them). There were quite a few players at the time that said that particular banning would have a greater effect on the game then people would realize. I remember Chipper Jones saying something along the lines of he thought greenies were more important than steroids (take that for what it's worth). While I'm sure players can find something to help get them through, I would imagine that teams are having to find ways to get guys some rest here and there while the season goes on. If that means you get days off from the field because of a rotating DH, then that's one way.

 

That makes sense to me more than anything. I think the Sox, who as an organization have always seemed to be on the front end of the anti-Peds movement, could very well be trying to adjust to the fact that less traditional DHs will be available due to stricter and stricter drug testing, and a recognition of the need for more rest of regular players.

 

I don't know if it will work out or not, or even how to measure it. How do you test to see if, for example, the numbers Paul Konerko puts up by DHing one to two days a week, instead of being on the bench for those days, while adding what his subs get. Then comparing that to what a pure DH would do, and losing Konerkos bat totally during those days.

[WCSox]

You know, I knew it would happen when it became clear this is what we had, but I really do tire of trying to be convinced that putting a combination of really bad offensive players in our offense consistently would make us better.

 

You should probably stay away from any article that quotes Ozzie or Kenny for the next couple of months.

 

[Dick Allen]

I laugh at the notion you are giving guys a "rest" when you are DHing them. Especially corner OFs. They may get 5 or 6 plays a game some days, some days even less. Most of these guys work with Allen Thomas and are pretty well conditioned specimens. A few innings in the field especially if its a night game and the sun isn't beating down on them in the middle of August, is nothing. Most guys will spend many times the energy they will spend playing the field working in the batting cage and during BP before the game, and a few guys exert more just swinging the weighted stuff while on deck. If

"rest" is what you are after, keep them away from a bat for a day.