When was the last time the Braves actually gave up a top (elite) level prospect that actually panned out? I really can't think of one...Andy Marte, Jarrold Saltalamachia, Tyler Flowers. Those guys really seem to know or tout their prospects well and package them in trades. So I think we go ahead and trade Flowers because the Braves gave him to us and it was for Javy "Freakin'" Vasquez so you know he can't be all that good.

 

Lillibridge

I too refuse to acknowledge it. Law is full of snark and fans of basically every team feel that he's anti their team.

 

Law picks certain players to love and others to hate. And his snark level in describing guys is relatively high.

 

I'll use Gavin Floyd as one example. If you go back and search Law comments about him from year to year, he's always finding some new way to bash him. Many more examples like that...

 

Makes for interesting reading sometimes, but not necessarily objective or good player evaluations.

 

I think he fits very well in the job he has now, writing sensationalist articles that attract eyeballs for ESPN.

 

But, in terms of his track record, for evaluating talent... frankly, I think he sucks.

Edited July 28, 201015 yr by scenario

Do you know how they calculated it or where the information can be found? It most statistical prediction models you don't 70% of the data to predict the outcome. Granted the more data you have the more accurrate the prediction will be. However, if you need to get 70% of the data prediction models are useless as if you have 70% of the data the season is basically over and there is no value in prediction.

Full article

 

To those who aren't interested in all the methodology, I recommend at least scrolling down to the bottom to see the general sample sizes needed for each stat.

If the Sox do deal Hudson to get Dunn, what about acquiring Ted Lilly? What will the price tag be on him? RIght now it appears that the Cubs options are dwindling and they are willing to pick up some of his deal. He could easily take that 4/5 spot and we could be in business. From MLBTR:

 

The Cubs have indicated a recent willingness to assume some of the $4.43MM owed to Lilly, reports ESPN's Jayson Stark. That'd help the chances of a Dodgers deal. Unfortunately for the Cubs, potential Lilly suitors like the Mets and Tigers may be reassessing their chances.

If the Sox do deal Hudson to get Dunn, what about acquiring Ted Lilly? What will the price tag be on him? RIght now it appears that the Cubs options are dwindling and they are willing to pick up some of his deal. He could easily take that 4/5 spot and we could be in business. From MLBTR:

 

I'd like to have Lilly for pretty much nothing given that he's probably a 4.6-4.8 FIP starter in the AL and in this park. Anything above a couple of low level prospects would be overpay for this team IMO. You might as well just go get Jake Westbrook.

Full article

 

To those who aren't interested in all the methodology, I recommend at least scrolling down to the bottom to see the general sample sizes needed for each stat.

 

Basically that article leads to two solid conclusions to the topic at hand:

 

A) Adam Dunn is a better player and has had a better career than Carlos Quentin.

B) Carlos Quentin is more likely to outperform Adam Dunn over a shorter period than a long once, hence the stats I posited. We're not picking which player will produce more over an entire season; we're picking which one will produce more over the final two months of a season within the context of the long term ramifications of trading for the more reliable player. Look, I don't understand enough about the metrics to understand the expected win improvement for a guy who has hit .278/23/63/.366/.559/.925 against a guy hitting .238/19/66/.341/.497/.838 or our fifth starter or our everyday second baseman. Given that each is a "cheap contract" going forward, my inclination is that acquiring the more reliable player (Dunn) is not worthwhile.

I'm not interested in if Q or Dunn is better because I wouldn't trade Q for Dunn anyways right now.

Since there isn't much Dunn news today, let's get hypothetical. What would your line-up (not Ozzie's) be with Dunn? *assuming no position player is traded

 

Mine:

Pierre

Ramirez

Rios

Konerko

Dunn

Quentin

AJ

Beckham

Omar

 

Mine:

 

Ramirez

Rios

Dunn

Konerko

Quentin

AJ

Beckham

Omar/Viciedo

Pierre

Edited July 28, 201015 yr by BigSqwert

Mine:

 

Pierre

Omar/Ramirez

Rios

Dunn

Konerko

Quentin

AJ

Ramirez/Teahen

Beckham

 

1. Rios

2. Alexei

3. Dunn

4. Konerko

5. Quentin

6. AJ

7. Beckham

8. Omar/Tank

9. Pierre

Since there isn't much Dunn news today, let's get hypothetical. What would your line-up (not Ozzie's) be with Dunn? *assuming no position player is traded

 

Mine:

Pierre

Ramirez

Rios

Konerko

Dunn

Quentin

AJ

Beckham

Omar

 

Ozzie would put Dunn between Rios and Konerko to break up the righties.

 

Only 3 more days before I dont have to nervously refresh this damned thread....

Ozzie would put Dunn between Rios and Konerko to break up the righties.

 

And that would be a pretty smart move. Dunn would be the Sox' second best hitter if he were in the lineup today (only behind Konerko).

Edited July 28, 201015 yr by chw42

Pierre

Ramirez

Rios

Dunn

Konerko

Quentin

Pierzynski

Vizquel/Viciedo

Beckham

 

Bench: Jones, Castro, Teahen, Vizquel/Viciedo

 

 

 

Figured I would update the latest from MLB trade rumors. MLBTR says more teams are in on Dunn but the sox and giants are the favorites. They also say we would be the best fit and claim to still want Hudson+ another prospect. I really hope this ends soon I'm addicted to checking MLBTRevery 15 minutes. I love the trade deadline ESP. When the sox are in it.

 

Link:

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/07/adam...-wednesday.html

Figured I would update the latest from MLB trade rumors. MLBTR says more teams are in on Dunn but the sox and giants are the favorites. They also say we would be the best fit and claim to still want Hudson+ another prospect. I really hope this ends soon I'm addicted to checking MLBTRevery 15 minutes. I love the trade deadline ESP. When the sox are in it.

 

Link:

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/07/adam...-wednesday.html

 

Wow, that would be amazing if the Giants got him. That'd make them the NL favorite, IMO.

Wow, that would be amazing if the Giants got him. That'd make them the NL favorite, IMO.

 

 

I agree, although I like the Bravos (Braves) a lot too. They have a great line up, solid D , and sustanable pitching. Bu I think you're right if the giants add Dunn they have to the favs better pitching for sure.

 

On a side note, with all these teams interested I don't know how the sox can compete with the likes of the Rays, Rangers, or giants with prospects. All three of these teams hold onto prospects and no doubt have better farm systems and thus players then we do. With that said, it should make us all appreciate how good of a GM Kw is. He has to be a persuasive SOB on the phones.

Well...first of all, you're assuming there's no negative effects on the guys we have from them pitching with zero extra rest. This season, Garcia's ERA is 6.03 on normal rest, 4.79 with 1 extra day, and 3.12 in games after 2 extra days of rest. Mark!'s ERA is 5.11 on normal rest, 3.67 on 1 extra day, and 2.48 after 2 extra days. Floyd is 4.48 on normal rest and 2.06 on extra rest (this could, of course, just be a function of when his extra rest games came relative to June/July, when he got hot). D1: the Pitching Danks is 3.59 on normal rest and 2.64 on extra rest.

 

 

Wow, I was not aware of that breakdown. Pretty eye opening differences.

Edited July 29, 201015 yr by Vance Law

To me it would really be an upset if the Sox get Dunn. How often have they been tied to be close to getting someone and then it doesn't happen? It seems almost all the deals they make appear out of the blue.

To me it would really be an upset if the Sox get Dunn. How often have they been tied to be close to getting someone and then it doesn't happen? It seems almost all the deals they make appear out of the blue.

 

If you look at it in that vein, most deals fall through, so it is a pretty common thing.

People on the Chicago side agree with other reports; market for Dunn increasing with D Lee's fear of leaving the comfort of the North Side Mediocricy. Lots of scouts were also at the game granted we were also playing Seattle who have to be sellers. Per chicagobreakingsports:

 

http://www.chicagobreakingsports.com/2010/...de-options.html

Edited July 29, 201015 yr by Frank_Thomas35

People on the Chicago side agree with other reports; market for Dunn increasing with D Lee's fear of leaving the comfort of the North Side Mediocricy. Lots of scouts were also at the game granted we were also playing Seattle who have to be sellers. Per chicagobreakingsports:

 

http://www.chicagobreakingsports.com/2010/...de-options.html

 

I don't think that makes much sense. I don't see teams that were targeting the inferior (this year) and right-handed Lee rather than Dunn, now instead going after the more expensive Dunn.

Well...first of all, you're assuming there's no negative effects on the guys we have from them pitching with zero extra rest. This season, Garcia's ERA is 6.03 on normal rest, 4.79 with 1 extra day, and 3.12 in games after 2 extra days of rest. Mark!'s ERA is 5.11 on normal rest, 3.67 on 1 extra day, and 2.48 after 2 extra days. Floyd is 4.48 on normal rest and 2.06 on extra rest (this could, of course, just be a function of when his extra rest games came relative to June/July, when he got hot). D1: the Pitching Danks is 3.59 on normal rest and 2.64 on extra rest.

 

So...with every other guy in our starting rotation, the extra day of rest has been worth 1+ runs to their ERA's.

 

Even ignoring that, I'd say that I think Hudson is likely to be close to a .500 pitcher the rest of the way, if he gets run support. I wouldn't be surprised if Torres/Marquez could win a game or two. So there's at least, to my eyes, a 2 win difference between Hudson and the other guys we have, compiled on top of the help of extra rest for the other starters.

 

Trying to use Mr. Offday as your 5th starter is a recipe for giving this division to the Twins.

Ok, interesting, but how many starts have each of them had on normal rest and extra rest?

I don't think that makes much sense. I don't see teams that were targeting the inferior (this year) and right-handed Lee rather than Dunn, now instead going after the more expensive Dunn.

I think he was referring to the Angels, who reportedly wanted Lee. Since Lee's a non-option, it's assumed they'll up their bid for Dunn.