Danks

[hometeamfan]

Danks is included in a BP "under the radar" article. Hope the Sox can lock him up with a fair offer.

[Balta1701]

Included in what sense?

[hometeamfan]

Included in what sense?

Great performances....underappreciated/valued

[SkokieSox]

Great performances....underappreciated/valued

 

How is he under appreciated or valued?

[Paint it Black]

How is he under appreciated or valued?

 

"How many pitchers have managed a combined 16 or more WARP over the last three seasons? The answer is 15, of which Danks has the 13th-highest total at 16.7 wins. A rank like that should qualify the White Sox left-hander as a legitimate ace, and yet does it really feel like he is thought of that way? Heck, he isn’t even the most popular lefty starter on his own team, even though his past three seasons have been much better than those of Mark Buehrle. Everyone knows Danks is good, but most miss just how good he has been in his short career"

 

Straight from BP.

[lostfan]

The main thing holding Danks back from being a legit ace is his efficiency IMO. He's better about it than he was when he first came to the majors, but still you look at his pitch count, it's around 80 and it's still the 4th inning. He'll usually make it to 6 innings but not as often past that as you'd like, and he leaves himself in a position where he needs the bullpen to hold it for him, or just hope the offense had built enough of a lead that it's never given up in the last 3 innings. If he was more in control of his own fate at the end of games more we'd be talking about one of the best LHP in the game.

[SkokieSox]

"How many pitchers have managed a combined 16 or more WARP over the last three seasons? The answer is 15, of which Danks has the 13th-highest total at 16.7 wins. A rank like that should qualify the White Sox left-hander as a legitimate ace, and yet does it really feel like he is thought of that way? Heck, he isn’t even the most popular lefty starter on his own team, even though his past three seasons have been much better than those of Mark Buehrle. Everyone knows Danks is good, but most miss just how good he has been in his short career"

 

Straight from BP.

 

I disagree, the team and fans value him just fine.

[3E8]

The main thing holding Danks back from being a legit ace is his efficiency IMO. He's better about it than he was when he first came to the majors, but still you look at his pitch count, it's around 80 and it's still the 4th inning. He'll usually make it to 6 innings but not as often past that as you'd like, and he leaves himself in a position where he needs the bullpen to hold it for him, or just hope the offense had built enough of a lead that it's never given up in the last 3 innings. If he was more in control of his own fate at the end of games more we'd be talking about one of the best LHP in the game.

Last season, Danks averaged 6.7 innings per start, which placed him 6th best out of 63 qualified pitchers in the AL. The only AL pitchers more "efficient" were Lee, King Felix, Sabathia, Pavano, and Verlander. It hasn't been an issue for Danks the past two seasons really.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/...er_pitching::30

Edited November 21, 2010 by 3E8

[joeynach]

The main thing holding Danks back from being a legit ace is his efficiency IMO. He's better about it than he was when he first came to the majors, but still you look at his pitch count, it's around 80 and it's still the 4th inning. He'll usually make it to 6 innings but not as often past that as you'd like, and he leaves himself in a position where he needs the bullpen to hold it for him, or just hope the offense had built enough of a lead that it's never given up in the last 3 innings. If he was more in control of his own fate at the end of games more we'd be talking about one of the best LHP in the game.

 

I still worry just a bit about Dank's pitching arsenal. Dont get me wrong hes got good stuff, but he came into this league a primarily two pitch pitcher, fastball and change. Now he features a nice Cutter as well, but that makes him a 3 pitch pitcher. I would like to see Danks master another off speed pitch the way Buehrle has done with at 69 MPH high arching curve ball he uses to mix things up and keep hitters off balance (especially 2nd and 3rd time through the lineup). When you dont throw over 91-92 MPH its even more important to develop peripheral pitches that allow you to pitch deeper into games.

[Balta1701]

I think the things that are bothering me about Johnny are: the fact that he keeps getting manhandled by the one team that we really need him to beat (minnesota), and perhaps more so, the fact that he still hasn't figured out how to deal with a game when he doesn't have his best stuff. When he has that changeup working it's fun to watch, but when things aren't working 100% for him, everything seems like a ridiculous grind.

[lostfan]

Last season, Danks averaged 6.7 innings per start, which placed him 6th best out of 63 qualified pitchers in the AL. The only AL pitchers more "efficient" were Lee, King Felix, Sabathia, Pavano, and Verlander. It hasn't been an issue for Danks the past two seasons really.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/...er_pitching::30

Me, pwned I guess. But it seems like there's only maybe one thing holding him out of the "elite" category from the "very good" category (low threes instead of high threes). I'm not sure how exactly to describe it.

[southsider2k5]

I think the things that are bothering me about Johnny are: the fact that he keeps getting manhandled by the one team that we really need him to beat (minnesota), and perhaps more so, the fact that he still hasn't figured out how to deal with a game when he doesn't have his best stuff. When he has that changeup working it's fun to watch, but when things aren't working 100% for him, everything seems like a ridiculous grind.

 

The thing that drives me crazy about Danks isn't how many games he doesn't have stuff, it is how many games his mechanics go to crap. He seems to have long stretches where he can't finish on the change and leaves it up.

[Balta1701]

The thing that drives me crazy about Danks isn't how many games he doesn't have stuff, it is how many games his mechanics go to crap. He seems to have long stretches where he can't finish on the change and leaves it up.

I think we're referring to the same effect.

[lostfan]

The thing that drives me crazy about Danks isn't how many games he doesn't have stuff, it is how many games his mechanics go to crap. He seems to have long stretches where he can't finish on the change and leaves it up.

This. I guess statistically, it doesn't happen as often as I thought it did.

[Balta1701]

This. I guess statistically, it doesn't happen as often as I thought it did.

D1 is so ridiculously close to being a top pitcher it's not even funny. He's just been stuck there since 2008 though.

[witesoxfan]

Whatever the causes may be, what separates Danks from others is Danks' "long" stretches of mediocrity. Every pitcher gets blown up from time to time, but most great pitchers will go through very good stretches of like 7-10 starts at a time at some point during the season. Danks hasn't been able to string them together over that long of a period of time.

 

Danks actually only had 2 months last year with an ERA below 4. It's a rather pointless statistic providing the interpreter with meaningless cutoff dates, but it does help illustrate that Danks tends to be mediocre for stretches at a time. He also has a tendency to be blown up - he had 7 starts where he gave up 5 ER or more (and 2 where he gave up 8 ER). If he cuts the amount of runs in half of 2 of those starts, and ultimately ends up pitching an additional inning in both starts due to a smaller pitch count, his ERA ends up closer to 3.50 than 3.75, and it can get a hell of a lot lower from there.

 

Great starters string the great performances together and follow them up with small chunks of mediocrity; Danks strings together "mediocre" (again, using the word in a relative sense) followed by small chunks of excellence.

 

Danks really doesn't seem to have great stuff either. Solid fastball, good cutter for movement, change up for the change of pace, and then a show me curveball (that should be better)...he doesn't have the ridiculous movement that Felix gets, nor the velocity of Sabathia or Liriano, nor the control of Lee. I think there are physical limitations holding him back from being an ace, and quite frankly, there's not a whole lot he can do about that.

[Paint it Black]

Me, pwned I guess. But it seems like there's only maybe one thing holding him out of the "elite" category from the "very good" category (low threes instead of high threes). I'm not sure how exactly to describe it.

run support. Although I'm too lazy to look it up, it always seems like he is pitching the games where the offense falls flat.

 

EDIT: I actually was able to find numbers and going back through 4 years this is not true. I stand corrected.

Edited November 21, 2010 by Paint it Black

[southsider2k5]

Whatever the causes may be, what separates Danks from others is Danks' "long" stretches of mediocrity. Every pitcher gets blown up from time to time, but most great pitchers will go through very good stretches of like 7-10 starts at a time at some point during the season. Danks hasn't been able to string them together over that long of a period of time.

 

Danks actually only had 2 months last year with an ERA below 4. It's a rather pointless statistic providing the interpreter with meaningless cutoff dates, but it does help illustrate that Danks tends to be mediocre for stretches at a time. He also has a tendency to be blown up - he had 7 starts where he gave up 5 ER or more (and 2 where he gave up 8 ER). If he cuts the amount of runs in half of 2 of those starts, and ultimately ends up pitching an additional inning in both starts due to a smaller pitch count, his ERA ends up closer to 3.50 than 3.75, and it can get a hell of a lot lower from there.

 

Great starters string the great performances together and follow them up with small chunks of mediocrity; Danks strings together "mediocre" (again, using the word in a relative sense) followed by small chunks of excellence.

 

Danks really doesn't seem to have great stuff either. Solid fastball, good cutter for movement, change up for the change of pace, and then a show me curveball (that should be better)...he doesn't have the ridiculous movement that Felix gets, nor the velocity of Sabathia or Liriano, nor the control of Lee. I think there are physical limitations holding him back from being an ace, and quite frankly, there's not a whole lot he can do about that.

 

Good post. I'm glad I am not the only one who feels that Danks is just missing that little something. Don't get me wrong he is a great pitcher when he is on, but the margin of error for him is so thin, that when he isn't on, it isn't pretty.

[Dick Allen]

Maybe Danks isn't technically "elite" yet, but I think he has a great chance to get there. Any bad thing you can say about him you can say about Buerhle, Floyd, Peavy, Jackson, Sale or anyone on the White Sox staff. I am of the opinion Danks is the Sox best starter. I hope they don't trade him. They will be looking for someone as good as him for a long time.

Edited November 21, 2010 by Dick Allen

[3E8]

Danks isn't a strikeout pitcher. He pitches to contact more than the guys that come up when you think of aces. I don't think he'll jump into that elite level unless he can cut his walk rate down (which is already better than average as is). But he is still a very valuable starter.

[Jordan4life_2007]

Maybe Danks isn't technically "elite" yet, but I think he has a great chance to get there. Any bad thing you can say about him you can say about Buerhle, Floyd, Peavy, Jackson, Sale or anyone on the White Sox staff. I am of the opinion Danks is the Sox best starter. I hope they don't trade him. They will be looking for someone as good as him for a long time.

 

I admire your persistence. But I don't think you get it. Nobody really wants to trade Danks. But if he's determined to test the FA market, there's really no other alternative. We will NEVER be able to outbid either NY team or Boston. And you can bet those 3 teams will be lining up to sign him come offseason '12.

[Dick Allen]

Danks isn't a strikeout pitcher. He pitches to contact more than the guys that come up when you think of aces. I don't think he'll jump into that elite level unless he can cut his walk rate down (which is already better than average as is). But he is still a very valuable starter.

The first guy I thought of when I thought who is an ace was Roy Halladay. His career k rate is 6.7 per 9. Danks is 7.0.

[3E8]

The first guy I thought of when I thought who is an ace was Roy Halladay. His career k rate is 6.7 per 9. Danks is 7.0.

Yeah, now compare their walk rates.

[Dick Allen]

I admire your persistence. But I don't think you get it. Nobody really wants to trade Danks. But if he's determined to test the FA market, there's really no other alternative. We will NEVER be able to outbid either NY team or Boston. And you can bet those 3 teams will be lining up to sign him come offseason '12.

Then take his services for the 2 years then the draft picks. If the Sox traded him for prospects they would IMO, turn out like the prospects the Marlins got for Cabrera. We know nothing about the negotiations, just whats assumed. He turned down the deal Floyd accepted so many take that to mean he wants out. I think it just means he was willing to roll the dice to make some more cash and it looks like it will work. We do have a report the Sox are making signing him a priority. I hope he signs, but if he doesn't, unless its a can't say no deal, I think the 2 years you get to work something out, assuming something about the White Sox or the city isn't really pissing him off, may be enough to get a deal done.

[Dick Allen]

Yeah, now compare their walk rates.

1.9-3.1, Danks walks about 1 more batter per start.