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White Sox sign Jesse Crain


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QUOTE (flavum @ Dec 16, 2010 -> 09:14 AM)
Listened to the Crain interview:

 

- Confirmed 3/$13 mil.

 

- 3rd guaranteed year sealed the deal

 

- Kenny has told him that Thornton and Sale are in the closer picture, but he'll be given opportunities in the 9th.

- His velocity has gone up the last four years, and he feels like he's getting better

 

- Working on adding a split-fingered fastball

that's what surprised me last season, when he was routinely hitting 97 on the gun.

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QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Dec 16, 2010 -> 10:13 AM)
Put a winning team on the field and the revenue will come.

unless you're the twins. I really don't understand how they weren't buyers at the winter meetings. They should've been the ones bidding on Dunn to replace Thome, they should've been making a push for another starter and to bolster their pen. Instead they've taken all the progress made with their new stadium and watched their team get weaker.

 

I realize that the off season is far from over and that they could easily trade blue chips like Valencia for some solid pitching, and it wouldn't surprise me to see them end up with Greinke (they've expressed interest), but so far they really leave me shaking my head. I would think they would be looking to add elements to push them over the top.

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QUOTE (The Ginger Kid @ Dec 16, 2010 -> 01:52 PM)
unless you're the twins. I really don't understand how they weren't buyers at the winter meetings. They should've been the ones bidding on Dunn to replace Thome, they should've been making a push for another starter and to bolster their pen. Instead they've taken all the progress made with their new stadium and watched their team get weaker.

 

I realize that the off season is far from over and that they could easily trade blue chips like Valencia for some solid pitching, and it wouldn't surprise me to see them end up with Greinke (they've expressed interest), but so far they really leave me shaking my head. I would think they would be looking to add elements to push them over the top.

I think the Twins have already spent their revenue boost. Mauer goes from $12.5 million to $22.5 million next year. They have $58 million committed next year to Nathan, Morneau, Mauer, and Cuddyer. There's $6 million in guaranteed salary boosts for Kubel, Blackburn, and Baker compared to last year. Based on B-R's arbitration projections, without signing anyone, their commitments this year are about $101 million, while they spent $101 million last year. And they're probably committed to something on the order of $98 million in 2012 already.

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QUOTE (beck72 @ Dec 16, 2010 -> 03:41 AM)
I think it's a big addition. And the sox didn't need to trade anyone to get him.

 

 

Which is just what KW said he wanted to do. People chiming in about a salary dump might see Teahan leaving. Teahan is the odd man out in my opinion. He has lost his starting job at 3B and RF is not his strong point. Just because he is a lefty bat is not a good reason to keep him over the talent CQ brings. If these folks think CQ is a bad defender they need to think about Teahan in RF. Teahan might be the insurance though in case Morel doersn't make it this spring or Viciedo can't step in at3B. Interesting to see what happens with those guys.

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QUOTE (elrockinMT @ Dec 16, 2010 -> 01:07 PM)
Which is just what KW said he wanted to do. People chiming in about a salary dump might see Teahan leaving. Teahan is the odd man out in my opinion. He has lost his starting job at 3B and RF is not his strong point. Just because he is a lefty bat is not a good reason to keep him over the talent CQ brings. If these folks think CQ is a bad defender they need to think about Teahan in RF. Teahan might be the insurance though in case Morel doersn't make it this spring or Viciedo can't step in at3B. Interesting to see what happens with those guys.

 

Who on earth is going to take Teahen for 2 Years and 9M. Who I ask you.

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In reading the blogs, and articles on the Crain signing, there doesn't seem to be anything that addresses what accounted for Crain's second half season performance last year?

Did he acquire a new pitch? Did he change his approach?

 

From June to September, he faced 132 hitters and allowed just just 2 extra base hits, 1 double and 1 triple. That's pretty remarkable.

Was his dominance a fluke, or can we reasonably expect him to continue to perform anywhere near that level?

 

Of course, he will no longer be able to pad his stats versus the White Sox. I wonder if Konerko, A. J. and others were consulted before Kenny "pulled the trigger" on this signing.

 

In that he seems to be equally effective vs left handed hitters, he could be a good candidate to close. Thornton and Sale could close in special situations, such as vs. the Twins when the scheduled hitters in the 9th inning are the big left handed bats in the middle of their order.

The organization has already hinted that might be their thinking.

 

Has anyone seen an explanation for why he improved so much during June to September?

Edited by Lillian
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From July 1st to October 3rd, Crain's percentage of pitches were

  • Slider 44.2%
  • Fastball 36.2%
  • Curveball 16.6%

 

From the beginning of the season to that point...

  • Fastball 47.6%
  • Slider 37.6%
  • Curveball 11%

 

The clear difference between the halves of the season was the increased amount of breaking pitches he threw. Whereas in the first half it would appear he used his fastball to set up his slider and curveball, it appears he used his slider to set up the fastball and curveball. By doing so, he gets righties expecting the ball to break down hard and away and lefties down and in, while occasionally getting them behind the fastball and ahead of the curveball. He is also going to see more success against left handed hitters with featuring primarily the slider as it will break down and in towards them. The curveball also likely helps with this too to simply show them something else.

 

According to FanGraphs, Crain's slider all year was a 14.6 runs above average, his curveball 3.8 runs above average, and his fastball -5.2 runs above average (or 5.2 below average). He also throws a changeup and actually threw it more often this past year (1.6%), but he has thrown it less than 1% during his entire career. It was effective this year when he did throw it, as it was worth 0.4 runs above average, but it's really too small of a sample to say whether or not it is a truly effective pitch.

 

The problem with throwing the slider as much as Crain does is that it increases his injury risk. The slider causes increased tension within the elbow and can result in a mess. During his early years, the Mariners didn't allow Felix Hernandez to throw his slider, and the slider is what caused Francisco Liriano's elbow to explode. It was also Edinson Volquez's primary pitch during his phenomenal 2008 season; he missed most of 2009 and half of 2010 due to Tommy John surgery. It's scary for Crain to rely so heavily on this pitch, but some guys can throw the slider that much and get away with it; in fact, I seem to recall reading that one of Larry Andersen (traded to the Red Sox for Jeff Bagwell) or Doyle Alexander (traded to the Tigers for John Smoltz) threw primarily sliders. If it's true, both had very, very long successful careers.

 

If Crain can continue to throw that slider at such a rate and can stay healthy, then I think this is signing is going to be a good one. I wouldn't be surprised if Cooper looks into the possibility of adding the cutter to his repertoire, but he generally hasn't done that with his relievers - save Jenks. I'm guessing that's because he would prefer that the relievers concentrate on those pitches that work for them and to harness those pitches to their fullest extent. He wants starters throwing it because they need an assortment of pitches to fool hitters 2-4 times a game, so he would rather them have 4-5 pitches that they throw "decently," which is where the cutter comes in and is very effective.

Edited by witesoxfan
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QUOTE (Lillian @ Dec 17, 2010 -> 05:29 AM)
In reading the blogs, and articles on the Crain signing, there doesn't seem to be anything that addresses what accounted for Crain's second half season performance last year?

Did he acquire a new pitch? Did he change his approach?

 

From June to September, he faced 132 hitters and allowed just just 2 extra base hits, 1 double and 1 triple. That's pretty remarkable.

Was his dominance a fluke, or can we reasonably expect him to continue to perform anywhere near that level?

 

Of course, he will no longer be able to pad his stats versus the White Sox. I wonder if Konerko, A. J. and others were consulted before Kenny "pulled the trigger" on this signing.

 

In that he seems to be equally effective vs left handed hitters, he could be a good candidate to close. Thornton and Sale could close in special situations, such as vs. the Twins when the scheduled hitters in the 9th inning are the big left handed bats in the middle of their order.

The organization has already hinted that might be their thinking.

 

Has anyone seen an explanation for why he improved so much during June to September?

 

 

Maybe someone for savvy with Fangraphs can get monthly splits on his pitch usage, but according to his year-by-year usage, I did notice this....

 

He threw his fastball about 35% less this year than in years past, his slider he threw about TWICE as much, and his change-up about FOUR times as often, and he used his curveball slightly less. Now, the opposing batter contact % was the best of his career, as was the swing and miss %. Again, I don't know if I can find a monthly breakdown of his pitch usage, but I would think that from June and on he was using his offspeed pitches a lot more. A lot more use of his slider and changeup, and a lot less fastballs.

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