2011 Predict-a-Sox thread

[Kalapse]

I used random.org to determine my projections:

 

Wins: 95 (80-100)

Division rank: 1 (1-3)

 

Pierre: 66 SB (40-80), .316 OBP (.310-.360)

Beckham: 24 HR (10-25), .837 OPS (.700-.900)

Rios: 22 HR (15-25), .748 OPS (.700-.950)

Dunn: 40 HR (25-55), .915 OPS (.800-1.000)

Konerko: 29 HR (20-40), .981 OPS (.750-1.000)

Quentin: 40 HR (10-50), .861 OPS (.700-1.000)

Pierz: 12 HR (9-16), .735 OPS (.690-.790)

Ramirez: 10 HR (10-25), .766 OPS (.700-.900)

Morel: 7 HR (5-25), .815 OPS (.650-.850)

 

Danks: 18 W (10-22), 3.22 ERA (2.30-4.50)

Buehrle: 14 W (10-22), 3.45 ERA (3.00-4.50)

Floyd: 19 W (10-22), 2.59 ERA (2.30-5.00)

Jackson: 15 W (8-22), 3.46 ERA (3.00-5.00)

Peavy: 6 W (1-20), 5.47 ERA (2.50-6.00)

 

Sale: 18 SV (1-40), 2.57 ERA (2.00-5.00), 15 GS (0-35)

Thornton: 20 SV (1-40), 2.62 ERA (2.60-2.80) 1.067 WHIP (.990-1.100)

Crain: 3.76 ERA (2.00-4.50), 1.400 WHIP (1.000-1.500)

Santos: 2.34 ERA (2.00-5.00), 1.083 WHIP (1.000-1.800)

Pena: 4.96 ERA (3.00-5.50), 1.316 WHIP (1.000-1.800)

[Jordan4life_2007]

Y

I used random.org to determine my projections:

 

Wins: 95 (80-100)

Division rank: 1 (1-3)

 

Pierre: 66 SB (40-80), .316 OBP (.310-.360)

Beckham: 24 HR (10-25), .837 OPS (.700-.900)

Rios: 22 HR (15-25), .748 OPS (.700-.950)

Dunn: 40 HR (25-55), .915 OPS (.800-1.000)

Konerko: 29 HR (20-40), .981 OPS (.750-1.000)

Quentin: 40 HR (10-50), .861 OPS (.700-1.000)

Pierz: 12 HR (9-16), .735 OPS (.690-.790)

Ramirez: 10 HR (10-25), .766 OPS (.700-.900)

Morel: 7 HR (5-25), .815 OPS (.650-.850)

 

Danks: 18 W (10-22), 3.22 ERA (2.30-4.50)

Buehrle: 14 W (10-22), 3.45 ERA (3.00-4.50)

Floyd: 19 W (10-22), 2.59 ERA (2.30-5.00)

Jackson: 15 W (8-22), 3.46 ERA (3.00-5.00)

Peavy: 6 W (1-20), 5.47 ERA (2.50-6.00)

 

Sale: 18 SV (1-40), 2.57 ERA (2.00-5.00), 15 GS (0-35)

Thornton: 20 SV (1-40), 2.62 ERA (2.60-2.80) 1.067 WHIP (.990-1.100)

Crain: 3.76 ERA (2.00-4.50), 1.400 WHIP (1.000-1.500)

Santos: 2.34 ERA (2.00-5.00), 1.083 WHIP (1.000-1.800)

Pena: 4.96 ERA (3.00-5.50), 1.316 WHIP (1.000-1.800)

 

Wait, those are your projections? I'm confused. And some of those are pretty generous.

 

[Pale Sox]

My positive prediction: Beckham breaks out in a huge way.

 

My negative prediction: That slight forearm soreness becomes something major for Thornton. I've suspected the Ohman signing might have been insurance for this.

[bigruss]

Y

 

Wait, those are your projections? I'm confused. And some of those are pretty generous.

Random.org is just a website that randomly picks numbers for you, so it looks like Kalapse just put in the ranges he sees the numbers could fall in and let the computer choose from there randomly.

[NorthSideSox72]

SS, do you mind if I add the annual poll thread for season wins to this thread?

 

Mine...

 

94-68, win AL Central, lose in ALCS

 

Final ALC standings: CHW, MIN -5, DET -9, KC -10, CLE -20

 

--Peavy gets going in late April missing only a handful of starts, but has a mediocre year by his standards as he adjusts

--Danks falls back a bit from 2010, but Floyd and MB improve from their previous seasons

--E-Jax has a good year, ERA in the mid-to high three's

 

--Thornton has an off year but still an average reliever

--Santos excels in his second full season, becomes the 8th inning guy

--Sale closes and ends up one of the top closers in baseball for the year

--Crain has a typical Crain season, Pena improves, Ohman does OK as a LOOGY

--Humber gets last BP slot and starts a couple games for Peavy, then is sent down, and Infante impresses but is erratic at times replacing him in the pen

 

--TCQ gets back to near 2008 levels but a little lower in AVG, big comeback for him, AND gets better defensively

--Rios has a solid year, not quite 1st half 2010 numbers, but better than his overall 2010 result

--Pierre has pretty much the same season he had in 2010

--PK comes back to earth a bit, but not a spectacular fall: .270-ish AVG, 35-ish HR

--Beckham breaks out: .300-ish AVG with 25 HR, improving defense

--Alexei falls back a bit defensively as he gets too fancy, adds power but reduces AVG at the plate

--Morel wins the 3B job, starts cold and Teahen starts every 3rd game, then Morel turns it on as the season goes on and finishes with replacement level offensive numbers but better than average defense

--AJ hits for a high average, .290-.300-ish, but lower power numbers, mediocre defense

--Dunn hits .240 but slugs 45 homers

 

 

[NorthSideSox72]

Poll added!!!

 

 

[MiddleCoastBias]

What is the Twins' non-mlb.com message board? I want to see if they have a similar thread to see their projections.

[southsider2k5]

Poll added!!!

 

Doesn't bother me at all. I was thinking it could be another thread later, but it is all good.

[NorthSideSox72]

Doesn't bother me at all. I was thinking it could be another thread later, but it is all good.

By the way, the same wins poll last year pretty much nailed it, as I recall. The bell curve peaked right around 88 wins. Can't find the poll now though.

 

[dpd9189]

By the way, the same wins poll last year pretty much nailed it, as I recall. The bell curve peaked right around 88 wins. Can't find the poll now though.

 

Not quite sure yet. Could see the Sox winning the Central or can see them coming in 3rd place.

[ScottyDo]

By the way, the same wins poll last year pretty much nailed it, as I recall. The bell curve peaked right around 88 wins. Can't find the poll now though.

I have a feeling this year's poll is going to have a much narrower spread, since KW basically did what we wanted, collectively. I guess we'll see how good a herd of GM's we are. We'll also see if a lower S.D. means a more reliable prediction or anything (although you can't really get more accurate than exactly right, can you?).

[joeynach]

It would be nice to see a statistical real projection for Sox, Twins, Tigers wins. Like one based on total WAR for each team, or runs projects vs runs allowed (Pythagorean win formula).

[NorthSideSox72]

With 22 votes in so far, the peak of the curve is hovering around 93 wins. Very little standard deviation so far as well.

 

 

[chw42]

You think they're bad? Excellent rotation. Above average bullpen. No matter how overpaid Wells is, he's an upgrade. If Morales comes back healthy they've got a pretty good team. Oh, that Peter Bourgos kid looks real nice. Dude can fly and he's already above average defensively. He and Trout might be the two fastest guys in baseball.

 

I don't think they're that good. I like the rotation, but the bullpen is pretty eh. Plus, their offense lacks a lot of depth. No OBP up top or at the bottom. Morales is their only very good hitter. Everybody else in the middle of that lineup is slightly above average.

[Jordan4life_2007]

I don't think they're that good. I like the rotation, but the bullpen is pretty eh. Plus, their offense lacks a lot of depth. No OBP up top or at the bottom. Morales is their only very good hitter. Everybody else in the middle of that lineup is slightly above average.

 

But you said "bad". I think they could easily be the second best team in the AL behind Boston.

[JorgeFabregas]

I think 2006 was the last time that I had expectations this high for the Sox.

[chw42]

But you said "bad". I think they could easily be the second best team in the AL behind Boston.

 

Bad as in not good enough to be a playoff team. I think Texas and Oakland are better.

 

When you look at that lineup, nobody wows you at all. Hunter, Wells and Abreu are .340-.350 wOBA guys. Morales is a .370 wOBA guy. Those are all decent hitters, but that's the middle of their lineup. No to mention they're trotting out bad hitters in Boujos, Aybar, and Mathis. One of those guys might even lead off.

 

Plus, they still lack a closer. Downs could be a decent one I guess, but outside of him and maybe Jepsen or Walden, what makes that a good bullpen? Rodney is extremely mediocre and they have a bunch of slightly above replacement guys to fill the other holes.

 

Like I said, the rotation's good. You got two front end starters in Haren and Weaver and then two solid #3 starters in Piniero and Santana. But then you have the gaping black hole of Scott Kazmir and his near 6 FIP.

 

It's a team with a lot of holes at important places, more specifically, the lineup. Best case scenario, they do win the West. But that's best case. I see them as a 83-85 win team.

Edited February 17, 2011 by chw42

[nickofypres]

90-72, AL Wild Card

 

Lose the ALDS to Oakland whom will go on to win the World Series.

[NorthSideSox72]

90-72, AL Wild Card

 

Lose the ALDS to Oakland whom will go on to win the World Series.

Wild card from the Central? And no two teams in the East with 90 wins? That would definitely be a surprise.

 

[NorthSideSox72]

48 votes, mid-line still around 93 wins. Just one vote in the 85-87 range, all others 88+. Chances of winning Central pegged around 75-80%.

 

[justBLAZE]

Voted 91-93, 1st place.

 

I'm usually an optimist, hoping for a healthy Peavy, bounceback year from Quentin, and a big year from Beckham the usual from others. We will at least win 5 more games than last year.

[NorthSideSox72]

Only 53 votes? There's more than double that many regulars in here - place your bets!

 

[Balta1701]

Wild card from the Central? And no two teams in the East with 90 wins? That would definitely be a surprise.

I wouldn't be shocked at all if only 1 team in the East got to 90 wins.

[bjm676]

For some reason, I think Quentin is going to have huge, comeback year.

Peavy will come back, but as dominant a pitcher he once was.

Morel will thrive as the starting third baseman.

Lastings Milledge will be the same, immature person he's always been and be released in Spring Training.

Chris Sale will be the closer.

Dunn will hit 46 HR, just shy of Belle's team record.

 

 

[Swingandalongonetoleft]

85-87. I think it will be a three horse race down to the wire, but the Twins and Tigers squeak out 1-2 more wins. In my mind it's either that or the Sox just uncork one on the division with a high-90's total. Because I'm a pessimist, I'll just stick to my first scenario.

 

Another prediction I have is actually a precursor to that mid 80's win total, and it involves an injury to someone in the rotation.