Dempster to Rangers

[caulfield12]

If I'm not mistaken, teams only do not get compensation for players that they have had for less than 1 year.

 

 

And in the future, they'd have to be willing to offer at least $12.5 million...

 

So let's say we did sign Volquez had him through 2013. If we wanted compensation, we'd have to be willing to offer him that much or more.

 

With that in mind, only about 10-15% of players will now fall into that category. And, of course, you also run the risk of getting stuck with that player if he gets no better offers and decides to come back to your team even if you don't necessarily want him.

 

 

[scenario]

As much as people hate Jared Mitchell around here, he's going to be a top 100 prospect. I seriously doubt will get a much better prospect for Dempster, when there are better pitchers on the market and the acquiring team will get no compensation at the end of the year.

 

Mitchell is a much better prospect than many people on the board recognize.

I think some of the hate is due to him being picked before Trout. Time to let this go... 20 something teams made the same mistake. It wasn't just us.

Meanwhile, people look at Mitchell's .247 batting average this season and trash him without recognizing he also has a .373 OBP and .824 OPS. Personally, I think we're going to see a big jump in performance from him next year. He's got a freakish combination of speed and power for a CF.

 

[The Ginger Kid]

The problem is all the big market teams are going to shy away from Greinke because of his social anxiety disorder or whatever he has. Maybe the Dodgers would offer him something huge, and I know they are a big market team, but SoCal isn't NY or Boston or even Chicago.

[gatnom]

Mitchell is a much better prospect than many people on the board recognize.

I think some of the hate is due to him being picked before Trout. Time to let this go... 20 something teams made the same mistake. It wasn't just us.

Meanwhile, people look at Mitchell's .247 batting average this season and trash him without recognizing he also has a .373 OBP and .824 OPS. Personally, I think we're going to see a big jump in performance from him next year. He's got a freakish combination of speed and power for a CF.

 

Or, it could be his 29.9% k% in AA. I don't disagree that he's a good prospect. I just don't think that he alone right now is worth the current MLB ERA leader.

 

 

[caulfield12]

Mitchell is a much better prospect than many people on the board recognize.

I think some of the hate is due to him being picked before Trout. Time to let this go... 20 something teams made the same mistake. It wasn't just us.

Meanwhile, people look at Mitchell's .247 batting average this season and trash him without recognizing he also has a .373 OBP and .824 OPS. Personally, I think we're going to see a big jump in performance from him next year. He's got a freakish combination of speed and power for a CF.

 

 

Just happy the Yankees didn't get him. They had him 2nd on their draft board in the 1st round.

 

Hometown boy, he would have been their Mauer X 10.

 

Seems like a great kid though, compared to Harper. Always smiling and happy-go-lucky.

[Melissa1334]

Just happy the Yankees didn't get him. They had him 2nd on their draft board in the 1st round.

 

Hometown boy, he would have been their Mauer X 10.

 

Seems like a great kid though, compared to Harper. Always smiling and happy-go-lucky.

i told someone the same thing yesterday. i dont like harper at all. hes going to be the new aj lol everyone is going to hate him

[scenario]

Or, it could be his 29.9% k% in AA. I don't disagree that he's a good prospect. I just don't think that he alone right now is worth the current MLB ERA leader.

 

Maybe not. But the real question is what value in prospects is worth 10 outings of the current MLB ERA leader. How many more wins does that equate to over somebody else we might run out there? Because that's all we're getting in exchange for whoever we give up.

 

[caulfield12]

Maybe not. But the real question is what value in prospects is worth 10 outings of the current MLB ERA leader. How many more wins does that equate to over somebody else we might run out there? Because that's all we're getting in exchange for whoever we give up.

 

And it's not like picking up Dempster = automatic Rick Sutcliffe stretch from 1984.

 

There have to be serious concerns about any pitcher transitioning from the NL to the AL, especially coming from a big pitcher's park like PetCo, for example (Volquez).

 

 

[gatnom]

Maybe not. But the real question is what value in prospects is worth 10 outings of the current MLB ERA leader. How many more wins does that equate to over somebody else we might run out there? Because that's all we're getting in exchange for whoever we give up.

 

I was trying to look at it from the Cubs' perspective. I think that Dempster would be a pretty huge upgrade over Axelrod for us, and I would do the aforementioned deal in a heartbeat. All of our top prospects are outfielders, and we have a pretty set outfield for the next few years regardless. Acquiring Dempster makes us a legit postseason threat, imo.

 

I just don't think the deal makes sense for the Cubs.

[Jake]

Maybe not. But the real question is what value in prospects is worth 10 outings of the current MLB ERA leader. How many more wins does that equate to over somebody else we might run out there? Because that's all we're getting in exchange for whoever we give up.

 

This. People are getting crazy here. I'm glad the Cubs don't need Mitchell because he's too much for Dempster anyway.

[Dick Allen]

I know he's been on fire lately, but don't things usually start to even out? Plus moving to the AL. I think there are a lot of red flags with Dempster. I don't think he's the guy the Sox should go after.

[cabiness42]

Plus moving to the AL.

 

Yeah, the Sox have no need for a guy who shut out the Red Sox for 7 innings and the Twins for 8 innings last month.

[Dick Allen]

Yeah, the Sox have no need for a guy who shut out the Red Sox for 7 innings and the Twins for 8 innings last month.

He's been on a roll. I mentioned that. But its like trading for Konerko when he's hitting .399. You know there is going to be a bad streak. I think there are guys out there that will have similar or even better numbers the rest of the way that will cost a lot less to acquire. BTW, the Red Sox there was no DH and I can shut out the Twins.

Edited July 16, 2012 by Dick Allen

[Marty34]

I do have some inside info about what is happening. As far as Sox players going to be traded that is speculation on my part.

 

I know KW really wants another quality pitcher for the rotation and a bullpen arm. Also don't be surprised if we get a utily player in a trade. KW wants an experience hitter coming off the bench.

 

I think they should consider bringing Pierre back. His .385 OBP v. righties would provide nice insurance for Viciedo and he'd come cheap.

 

Deaza

Pierre

Youk

Dunn

Konerko

Rios

AJ

Ramirez

Beckham

 

 

[Melissa1334]

He's been on a roll. I mentioned that. But its like trading for Konerko when he's hitting .399. You know there is going to be a bad streak. I think there are guys out there that will have similar or even better numbers the rest of the way that will cost a lot less to acquire. BTW, the Red Sox there was no DH and I can shut out the Twins.

career vs:

bos: 5.11 era

cle: 4.05

kc:4.50

min:7.62

nyy: 6.45

 

[Chicago White Sox]

Mitchell is a much better prospect than many people on the board recognize.

I think some of the hate is due to him being picked before Trout. Time to let this go... 20 something teams made the same mistake. It wasn't just us.

Meanwhile, people look at Mitchell's .247 batting average this season and trash him without recognizing he also has a .373 OBP and .824 OPS. Personally, I think we're going to see a big jump in performance from him next year. He's got a freakish combination of speed and power for a CF.

I agree with you 100%. The strikeouts are worrisome to some extent, but Mitchell also walks a ton so they come with the territory. The fact is his combination of power, speed, and patience gives him the potential to be one of the best leadoff men in the game. I still think Mitchell is our #1 prospect and easily a top 100 prospect in the game.

 

As for Dempster, people need to realize that Hamles, Greinke, and Garza are all more attractive options. If I'm going to give up a top 100 prospect and more, I'm going to make a run at those guys first. On top of that, teams won't be getting any compensation for losing Dempster at the end of the year, which seems very likely at this time. Finally, there just aren't as many teams that are willing to sacrifice young talent as there used to be. The Cubs will get something solid for Dempster, no doubt, but to think they'll get way more than a Jared Mitchell as the centerpiece of a package is crazy IMO.

[Lemon_44]

I know he's been on fire lately, but don't things usually start to even out? Plus moving to the AL. I think there are a lot of red flags with Dempster. I don't think he's the guy the Sox should go after.

I agree. I'd much rather got after the Volquez/ Street deal that was talked about earlier. I think Volquez is the better pitcher anyway and he'd be around at least another year. Street could be moved in to the closers role and Reed to the 8th inning, or vice/versa. I don't think Reed would complain or let it hurt his confidence at all since Street has proven to be a pretty elite closer when healthy.

[caulfield12]

I think they should consider bringing Pierre back. His .385 OBP v. righties would provide nice insurance for Viciedo and he'd come cheap.

 

Deaza

Pierre

Youk

Dunn

Konerko

Rios

AJ

Ramirez

Beckham

 

This is the dumbest idea I've heard. Pierre as a 2 hitter. Your what hurts? In the American League? Those numbers that he's putting up won't translate at all for the Sox.

 

Two, we need power at home in July/Aug/September. We already have a 1 hole hitter.

 

Why do we need any insurance for Viciedo? I'm more concerned with needing insurance for DeAza at this point if he wears down in the 2nd half.

 

 

 

 

[Chicago White Sox]

I think they should consider bringing Pierre back. His .385 OBP v. righties would provide nice insurance for Viciedo and he'd come cheap.

 

Deaza

Pierre

Youk

Dunn

Konerko

Rios

AJ

Ramirez

Beckham

Wow, Juan Pierre??? No thanks. I don't care how he's doing this year, I don't want to see him on the Sox ever again.

[hammerhead johnson]

Dempster has the lowest BABIP allowed in the NL, and the highest LOB%. That is one hell of a combination.

[caulfield12]

I agree with you 100%. The strikeouts are worrisome to some extent, but Mitchell also walks a ton so they come with the territory. The fact is his combination of power, speed, and patience gives him the potential to be one of the best leadoff men in the game. I still think Mitchell is our #1 prospect and easily a top 100 prospect in the game.

 

As for Dempster, people need to realize that Hamles, Greinke, and Garza are all more attractive options. If I'm going to give up a top 100 prospect and more, I'm going to make a run at those guys first. On top of that, teams won't be getting any compensation for losing Dempster at the end of the year, which seems very likely at this time. Finally, there just aren't as many teams that are willing to sacrifice young talent as there used to be. The Cubs will get something solid for Dempster, no doubt, but to think they'll get way more than a Jared Mitchell as the centerpiece of a package is crazy IMO.

 

 

Would have agreed after the first two months.

 

Now there are some doubts again. Especially about consistency. That and the fact that he's not really a refined basestealer by any stretch of the imagination. The White Sox would be much more likely to stick him at 9th in the line-up to start out.

 

Walker really profiles more as a prototypical leadoff hitter. Mitchell could be the guy...but he's got a ways to go.

 

 

[caulfield12]

Dempster has the lowest BABIP allowed in the NL, and the highest LOB%. That is one hell of a combination.

 

 

It's like buying Facebook or Google the day after the IPO when all the profitability is gone.

 

No thanks....buying way too high.

 

We always do better finding undervalued assets, like a Youkilis, Quentin, DeAza, Quintana, Humber, Santos, Jenks, etc.

[Chicago White Sox]

Would have agreed after the first two months.

 

Now there are some doubts again. Especially about consistency. That and the fact that he's not really a refined basestealer by any stretch of the imagination. The White Sox would be much more likely to stick him at 9th in the line-up to start out.

 

Walker really profiles more as a prototypical leadoff hitter. Mitchell could be the guy...but he's got a ways to go.

I wouldn't over-analyze stolen base rates in the minors. A guy like Mitchell is probably given the green light anytime he wants. The fact is his speed is top notch and he walks a ton, which makes him a leadoff candidate. His power is what could make him special though. He's still a raw player and high and lows should still be expected at this point.

[Marty34]

This is the dumbest idea I've heard. Pierre as a 2 hitter. Your what hurts? In the American League? Those numbers that he's putting up won't translate at all for the Sox.

 

Two, we need power at home in July/Aug/September. We already have a 1 hole hitter.

 

Why do we need any insurance for Viciedo? I'm more concerned with needing insurance for DeAza at this point if he wears down in the 2nd half.

 

Viciedo makes too many outs against RH'ers. If he continues to do so, Pierre's .385 obp is an excellent way to upgrade a weakness cheaply.

[caulfield12]

I wouldn't over-analyze stolen base rates in the minors. A guy like Mitchell is probably given the green light anytime he wants. The fact is his speed is top notch and he walks a ton, which makes him a leadoff candidate. His power is what could make him special though. He's still a raw player and high and lows should still be expected at this point.

 

 

How many players though who stole 10-15-20 at the minor league level ever ended up stealing 30+ bags in the majors.

 

It's pretty rare anyone learns that skill at the big league level when the instincts are not there in the minors.

 

Not saying it NEVER happens...but rare.

 

And valuing a leadoff hitter is always hard to do in the minors. It will be interesting to see where Billy Hamilton winds up pre-season 2013. The irony is that the Reds have Cosart there now, and he's struggling big-time in that role. To the point where their biggest need is a pure or true leadoff hitter.

 

 

 

EDIT: He was 14/20 at Winston-Salem but has improved to 20/24 this year.

 

Maybe....maybe. I don't see him as a Carl Crawford, he'll have more homers and 25-35 steals. More like DeAza, but with more pop than Alejandro, too.

Edited July 16, 2012 by caulfield12