The difference between Dunn and Rios WAR from 2011 to 2012 was about 10. If in contention they don't dump Jackson, and probably add. Considering they won 79 as it was, you're probably not correct.

 

The difference between Sale/Buehrle and Peavy was about -7. Put Sale in the pen and it probably is -5

The difference between Sale/Buehrle and Peavy was about -7. Put Sale in the pen and it probably is -5

You are still way above 85 wins. I personally don't necessarily blame Ozzie for Dunn/Rios, although an argument could be made. Supposedly Rios and Ozzie were buddies but I don't know if that was true all along which could explain the getting away with loafing or he suddenly became Ozzie's pal when he had to be separated from KW. Ozzie spouts off that he knew Dunn was going to be bad in spring training but it took him over 100 games to move him down in the line up when he wasn't managing to win but managing to try to make his boss look bad. To not notice or to let it slide because of 2005, would question fanhood to me.

You are still way above 85 wins. I personally don't necessarily blame Ozzie for Dunn/Rios, although an argument could be made. Supposedly Rios and Ozzie were buddies but I don't know if that was true all along which could explain the getting away with loafing or he suddenly became Ozzie's pal when he had to be separated from KW. Ozzie spouts off that he knew Dunn was going to be bad in spring training but it took him over 100 games to move him down in the line up when he wasn't managing to win but managing to try to make his boss look bad. To not notice or to let it slide because of 2005, would question fanhood to me.

 

89 wins last year doesn't get you to the postseason. Some "All-In" season.

All you have to do is look at what those guys did either once they left Chicago, or after Guillen left Chicago. Think about it. Swisher, Rios, Vazquez, Dunn... He forced Thome out for Kotsay, etc.

 

2012 was to a large extent due to rebounds from guys who died under Ozzie, and the farm system way out performing anything anyone outside of the organization ever predicted them to do.

 

I still disagree. Swisher is up to his same tricks. Anyone can do better in the Yankees lineup. Another example of using the wrong people to fill a hole. Kenny's biggest blunder IMO. Rios-credit De Aza (under Ozzie) to be able to play CF. Once again the wrong person to fill a hole. Credit Manto for Rios. You could blame Ozzie for sticking with the same hitting coach.

 

You are still way above 85 wins. I personally don't necessarily blame Ozzie for Dunn/Rios, although an argument could be made. Supposedly Rios and Ozzie were buddies but I don't know if that was true all along which could explain the getting away with loafing or he suddenly became Ozzie's pal when he had to be separated from KW. Ozzie spouts off that he knew Dunn was going to be bad in spring training but it took him over 100 games to move him down in the line up when he wasn't managing to win but managing to try to make his boss look bad. To not notice or to let it slide because of 2005, would question fanhood to me.

 

With a long season you keep playing the money guys hoping they snap out of their funk.

 

I still disagree. Swisher is up to his same tricks. Anyone can do better in the Yankees lineup. Another example of using the wrong people to fill a hole. Kenny's biggest blunder IMO. Rios-credit De Aza (under Ozzie) to be able to play CF. Once again the wrong person to fill a hole. Credit Manto for Rios. You could blame Ozzie for sticking with the same hitting coach.

 

Swisher has never had a year, before or after Ozzie, like he did playing for Ozzie.

Swisher has never had a year, before or after Ozzie, like he did playing for Ozzie.

 

Swisher was brought in to play CF. A position he has played once since leaving the Sox.

Swisher was brought in to play CF. A position he has played once since leaving the Sox.

 

He was brought in to hit. Which he mysteriously forgot how to do, just like many other vets who play for Ozzie.

I have nothing against Ozzie, and hold nothing personal against him.

 

I do think that a good manager can be good even when personnel is not a perfect fit. During his time here, there was quite a bit of personnel that he buddied with, and quite a bit that he feuded with.

 

There is circumstantial evidence that Rios, Dunn & Peavy were better because Ozzie was out. We cannot prove causality on that, but the bad environment had to go, and the Sox did well to clean up the bad environment. Maybe less Ozzie and more Hahn is kind of a two part solution for the long term, but we'll see.

 

Most people here have less of a problem with Kenny's contributions to the bad atmosphere because a GM necessarily can and should get to the background and not be a factor personality-wise. We're way past the days when Kenny would bust up a table in the lockerroom, etc.

Edited October 29, 201213 yr by Jose Paniagua

Move's I'd make in light of Twins possibly wanting Buehrle

 

Trade Floyd for Prospects

Trade Danks for prospects, low value, but you might get something back.

Send some of these prospects + Viciedo + Molina + Santiago + young Non-Reed BP arm for Felix

 

Rotation at this point:

 

Felix Hernandez

Chris Sale

Jose Quintana

 

Now, work out a deal with Peavy. Decline the option and try to work out a 3/$40M deal with incentives

 

Trade Sanchez, Marinez, and a low level prospect for Burhle.

 

Rotation:

 

Felix Hernandez

Chris Sale

Jake Peavy

Mark Buehrle

Jose Quintana

 

Now, sign Josh Hamilton for a lucrative contract WITH clauses (drug related ones).

 

Resign AJ to a deal around 2/$20M

 

Pick up the option on Youk

 

Lineup:

 

CF - Alejandro De Aza

3B - Kevin Youkilis

DH - Adam Dunn

1B - Paul Konerko

LF - Josh Hamilton

RF - Alex Rios

C - AJ Pierzynski

SS - Alexei Ramirez

2B - Gordon Beckham

 

Reed, Crain, Thornton, Myers (resigned, not option), Veal + 2 others in BP

 

Payroll: A lot of money

 

Attendance: Good (Buehrle back, AJ retained, two Cy Young candidate starters, MVP in the OF, etc.)

 

Then Rick Hahn walks across town, b**** slaps Theo, comes back and we celebrate.

 

Then I wake up.

No clue how that would work financially Q, but it'd certainly be awesome.

No clue how that would work financially Q, but it'd certainly be awesome.

 

Payroll: A lot of money

 

 

This would be Reinsdorf's "f*** IT! SPEND MONEY" year.

I wouldn't sign Pierzynski or Peavy to a deal more than two years, so I think they're gone.

 

I would decline Youk's option, so he's probably gone.

 

There's just too many variables to say exactly what I would do with trades and free agents, but my overall philosophy would be:

 

Don't mortgage the future with high risk contracts like Rios, Dunn, and Peavy were.

 

Keep outside pickups to 1-2 year deals while you try to develop your own players.

 

Try to sell high on Rios and Dunn if anyone wants them in the right deal. See what the interest is with Thornton and Crain.

 

Try to get younger. Try to get more athletic players that can play in September and October. Try to have five starting pitchers that are prepared to start 32 games and throw 200 innings.

Am I the only one here who would pick up Youk's option?

Am I the only one here who would pick up Youk's option?

I like Youk, but the option is just too much for a guy who is aging, starting to fall apart, and is now a question mark. $5 or $6 million, I'd say it's a no brainer. But as it is, I think it's too much of a risk for a team with a limited payroll and a big chunk of it already committed.

Explain it to me then.

 

I was a huge Guillen supporter until he quit on his team in 2010/11

Am I the only one here who would pick up Youk's option?

 

Probably. I'd be looking at Youk for about half the dollars.

Am I the only one here who would pick up Youk's option?

 

No, you're not the only one. I've been advocating that they pick up the option for quite a while.

It's only a $12 million marginal cost, after considering the $1 million buy out. There is a lot to be said for not having to make a commitment beyond one year. Then too, he would be playing for a contract during his free agent year.

He was brought in to hit. Which he mysteriously forgot how to do, just like many other vets who play for Ozzie.

 

You could cherry pick that I guess. Then there was Pods and Dye and the 2006 lineup.

 

Move's I'd make in light of Twins possibly wanting Buehrle

 

Trade Floyd for Prospects

Trade Danks for prospects, low value, but you might get something back.

Send some of these prospects + Viciedo + Molina + Santiago + young Non-Reed BP arm for Felix

 

Rotation at this point:

 

Felix Hernandez

Chris Sale

Jose Quintana

 

Now, work out a deal with Peavy. Decline the option and try to work out a 3/$40M deal with incentives

 

Trade Sanchez, Marinez, and a low level prospect for Burhle.

 

Rotation:

 

Felix Hernandez

Chris Sale

Jake Peavy

Mark Buehrle

Jose Quintana

 

Now, sign Josh Hamilton for a lucrative contract WITH clauses (drug related ones).

 

Resign AJ to a deal around 2/$20M

 

Pick up the option on Youk

 

Lineup:

 

CF - Alejandro De Aza

3B - Kevin Youkilis

DH - Adam Dunn

1B - Paul Konerko

LF - Josh Hamilton

RF - Alex Rios

C - AJ Pierzynski

SS - Alexei Ramirez

2B - Gordon Beckham

 

Reed, Crain, Thornton, Myers (resigned, not option), Veal + 2 others in BP

 

Payroll: A lot of money

 

Attendance: Good (Buehrle back, AJ retained, two Cy Young candidate starters, MVP in the OF, etc.)

 

Then Rick Hahn walks across town, b**** slaps Theo, comes back and we celebrate.

 

Then I wake up.

 

That's a contender alright, but at a payroll of $180m+

Am I the only one here who would pick up Youk's option?

 

I would.

I am going to revise my scenario from the first post in the thread. Here is what I would do now...

 

I am going to make an ASSUMPTION here, that payroll will remain similar to last year (which started at about $98M, and ended around $104M), so say a little over $100M.

 

MYERS $10M OPTION

DJOHNSON ARB

--

You've got $72.25M under contract, and at least $8M more in obligations, taking you to $80.25M minimum.

 

Here is what I'd do...

 

OPTIONS AND BUY-OUTS: Buy out Youkilis, Myers and Peavy, for $8M (so that puts the team at $80.25M at this point).

 

FREE AGENTS TO GO: Everyone eligible for FA.

 

DFA/RELEASE: Phil Humber, Leyson Septimo

 

OPTION TO MINORS: Brent Morel, Hector Gimenez, Leyson Septimo (if he's not claimed)

 

PRE-ARB: Offer contracts to Sale, Flowers, Viciedo, Jones, Reed, Quintana, Santiago, Veal, Omogrosso, Marinez, JorDanks and Axelrod . All around half a million each, so that's $5.5M, taking the team to $85.75M

 

ARBITRATION: Keep De Aza and Beckham around. This is purely a guess, but I'm thinking Beckham will cost $2M, and De Aza $3M, for a total of $5M, putting the team at $90.25M. Might want to consider giving De Aza a multi-year deal to buy out Arb and a year or two of FA. Dan Johnson is Arb Eligible, I believe, but has played so little that he can be had for a cheap $1M - I'd like to have him on the roster. So that is $91.25M.

 

TRADE AWAY: Trade Matt Thornton. Probably will only get a mid-level prospect for him, but that's fine, as salary relief is the key factor here. That saves you $5.5M, so you go back down to $85.75M.

 

Now, you have about $15M-$20M to address two positions of weakness: 3B and SP.

 

For the Starting Pitcher roll, I'd try to sign Peavy, if he can be had for $10M per or less, and 3 years or less (but might be able to spend a little more, depending on the 3B situaiton below). Probably won't happen, so, next option is to figure out what $9M gives you - can you do better than a year of Gavin Floyd? If so, and if said pitcher is a righty, go get him. If not, last resort, pick up Floyd's option. So this adds $9M or $10M, taking you to $95.25M if you shoot for the middle.

 

For 3B, you've got about $5M to $10M of head room to work with. I don't think Carlos Sanchez is quite ready, so, time to go get a free agent if you can. There are a lot of free agent 3B's on the market, but only David Wright (who has a $16M team option) is elite. Try to get the best available guy there - if you can get Wright, great. If not, work down the ladder. A little ways down, you even save a little money, maybe enough to make Peavy stay. If you get SO far down the ladder that it looks like you are better going with Sanchez and/or Morel, then fine, use the money for a more elite pitcher.

 

One last hole to fill is the bench IF guy, not sure who that might be, but would be cheap, so I won't calc that in here.

 

--

 

That gives you a ~$100M-$105M roster as follows (changes from 2012 even if only part-season, bolded):

 

LINEUP:

De Aza, 8

Wright/*FA*, 5 (spot in order may change)

Rios, 9

Dunn, 0

PK14, 3

Flowers, 2

Viciedo, 7

Ramirez, 6

Beckham, 4

 

BENCH:

JorDanks, OF

*FA*/Phegley, C

Sanchez or other, 3B-SS-2B

Dan Johnson, 1B/OF

 

ROTATION:

Sale

Danks

Peavy/Floyd/Other

Quintana

Santiago

 

BULLPEN:

Reed CL/SU

Jones CL/SU

Crain SU

Omogrosso SU

Veal SPEC

Marinez SPEC

Axelrod LR

 

That is a team with a bullpen that should be matured and better, a rotation that if healthy should be very good (and no longer is worrying about 3 guys who can pitch all season, with Q and Sale and Peavy stretched out), an improved situation at 3B (hopefully - hard for it to be worse), a stronger bench, and a younger and more athletic catcher who (hopefully) can put up similar numbers to typical AJ. I really think that is an improved team, but younger and more likely to not wear down later. All for similar money to last year.

 

That's a contender alright, but at a payroll of $180m+

 

Let it be so.

 

That fictional team could be a dynasty.

Wright is just waaaaay too much money plus a little too "ouchy" for me. Just think he's a tad overrated. I think you have to explore any deals you can make for Rios, Dunn or Paulie...but assuming nobody bites much. I guy I'd like to see the Sox go after at 3B is Chase Headley.

My "Big board" for 3B is:

 

1. Headley

2. Moose

3. Wright- I like Moose more because he's cheaper and left handed.

4. Arod at a discount

5. Youk at a discount

6. Robin Ventura

7. Brent Morel