Adam Dunn cleared waivers

[LittleHurt05]

The asking price was just "take his contract" and no one would even bite at that chance.

 

I think 2011 is what killed his value. People still see that season and are scared that version of him could return and it's too much money to take on to risk that.

[Balta1701]

I think 2011 is what killed his value. People still see that season and are scared that version of him could return and it's too much money to take on to risk that.

It's not just that. He's actually overpaid for the amount he produces.

 

As a near-full-time DH he's worth about $8 million in the fangraphs world (that was his value in 2012 when he was sorta adequate at 1b and didn't hurt himself much or help himself much). He's paid $14 million a year, so that's a $6 million a year premium you're paying for him. He's likely to put up $9-$10 million of value for a team as a DH over the next 1.33 seasons, which means that the Sox would have to pick up $7-8 million or so for a team to break even on him, again in the fangraphs world.

 

The Sox aren't going to pick up $8 million of Adam's deal unless you give them a good reason to. They're not so desperate for funds or playing time that they're going to dump him to save 1/2 of his deal.

[LittleHurt05]

It's not just that. He's actually overpaid for the amount he produces.

 

As a near-full-time DH he's worth about $8 million in the fangraphs world (that was his value in 2012 when he was sorta adequate at 1b and didn't hurt himself much or help himself much). He's paid $14 million a year, so that's a $6 million a year premium you're paying for him. He's likely to put up $9-$10 million of value for a team as a DH over the next 1.33 seasons, which means that the Sox would have to pick up $7-8 million or so for a team to break even on him, again in the fangraphs world.

 

The Sox aren't going to pick up $8 million of Adam's deal unless you give them a good reason to. They're not so desperate for funds or playing time that they're going to dump him to save 1/2 of his deal.

 

That's true. As defense has moved back into the forefront, I think other than Boston no team really has a set DH. Teams like to use that spot to give players rest and maximize their defensive skill each day. Dunn doesn't really help with that.

[kitekrazy]

That's true. As defense has moved back into the forefront, I think other than Boston no team really has a set DH. Teams like to use that spot to give players rest and maximize their defensive skill each day. Dunn doesn't really help with that.

 

I like that philosophy but when the Sox tried that it was the wrong people. After 2005 the DH has been a money pit.

 

[witesoxfan]

I like that philosophy but when the Sox tried that it was the wrong people. After 2005 the DH has been a money pit.

 

Becuase $8 mill a year was too much for Jim Thome, and the $1 mill or whatever they spent on Mark Kotsay was too much too?

 

Dunn has cost too much. That's really it.

[southsider2k5]

I like that philosophy but when the Sox tried that it was the wrong people. After 2005 the DH has been a money pit.

 

OZZIE GUILLEN WAS RIGHT!

[LittleHurt05]

I like that philosophy but when the Sox tried that it was the wrong people. After 2005 the DH has been a money pit.

 

 

Thome more than earned every dollar he was paid as a member of the Sox.

[harfman77]

It's not just that. He's actually overpaid for the amount he produces.

 

As a near-full-time DH he's worth about $8 million in the fangraphs world (that was his value in 2012 when he was sorta adequate at 1b and didn't hurt himself much or help himself much). He's paid $14 million a year, so that's a $6 million a year premium you're paying for him. He's likely to put up $9-$10 million of value for a team as a DH over the next 1.33 seasons, which means that the Sox would have to pick up $7-8 million or so for a team to break even on him, again in the fangraphs world.

 

The Sox aren't going to pick up $8 million of Adam's deal unless you give them a good reason to. They're not so desperate for funds or playing time that they're going to dump him to save 1/2 of his deal.

 

His value increases though when he gets some protection in the lineup so that he gets more good pitches to hit.

[cabiness42]

The asking price was just "take his contract" and no one would even bite at that chance.

 

It's not quite that simple. Remember that the waiver claims process involves all 30 teams putting players out there at roughly the same time. Any given team that might be interested in Dunn has to weigh claiming him vs claiming other people on waivers at the same time. While an individual team may have an interest in 3-5 guys on waivers, no team can afford the payroll hit (or the roster spots) to claim all of them and risk being stuck with all of their contracts.

 

The fact that Dunn made it through waivers has something to do with his contract, but also his position, and if teams are going to risk waiver claims, it's more often going to be for a pitcher or at least a player who can play more than one position (such as Rios). There could be teams out there who were more interested in Rios (or other players) so they didn't put in a claim for Dunn but now they didn't get those other players they're willing to consider Dunn.

 

However, with the underwhelming return the Sox got for Rios, I'd just as soon keep Dunn.

 

[oldsox]

His value increases though when he gets some protection in the lineup so that he gets more good pitches to hit.

Dunn gets lots of good pitches to hit; he just misses most of them.

[Eminor3rd]

Dunn gets lots of good pitches to hit; he just misses most of them.

 

You might be surprised to find out that his Z-Contact rate (contact rate on pitches in the strike zone) this year isn't far off from league average (82.5% vs. 87%), and that his Z-Swing (percentage of pitches he sees in the zone that he swings at) is almost exactly league average (65.1% vs. 65.4%).

[sammy esposito]

You might be surprised to find out that his Z-Contact rate (contact rate on pitches in the strike zone) this year isn't far off from league average (82.5% vs. 87%), and that his Z-Swing (percentage of pitches he sees in the zone that he swings at) is almost exactly league average (65.1% vs. 65.4%).

If Dunn keeps playing well through the end of the season; the sox and every other team can decide if they need him on their team. 20 million is a lot to gamble with.

 

[Jake]

I wouldn't hate the idea of resigning Dunn to a lower value contract after next year, given that I don't know what that team will look like. I bet somebody overpays, though.

[Jerksticks]

I wouldn't hate the idea of resigning Dunn to a lower value contract after next year, given that I don't know what that team will look like. I bet somebody overpays, though.

How much is a turd sandwich these days.

[greg775]

I wouldn't hate the idea of resigning Dunn to a lower value contract after next year, given that I don't know what that team will look like. I bet somebody overpays, though.

 

Jake, nobody's going to overpay on Adam Dunn. Nobody claimed him on waivers for gosh sakes. He's unwanted.

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

Jake, nobody's going to overpay on Adam Dunn. Nobody claimed him on waivers for gosh sakes. He's unwanted.

 

Nobody wants him at $15M a year. But I bet he could get 2 yrs/$20M from someone.

[greg775]

Nobody wants him at $15M a year. But I bet he could get 2 yrs/$20M from someone.

 

The Sox schizophrenia (sp?) has killed the value of some of its players. Nobody's gonna take Dunn for 10 mill a year because when he's been bad, he's been laughably bad. A GM would be trusting Adam to show up in good shape and not be the bad Dunn. Are you confident Dunn will hit over .100 next April/May again? If you were a GM would you risk that for 10 mill a year??

Ditto Rios. He had no value in trade because when he decided he didn't want to play, his loafing was unacceptable. Crazy team we have in Chicago. If Dunn was valued at all, some big money contender would have claimed him.

Edited August 13, 2013 by greg775

[Quin]

The Sox schizophrenia (sp?) has killed the value of some of its players. Nobody's gonna take Dunn for 10 mill a year because when he's been bad, he's been laughably bad. A GM would be trusting Adam to show up in good shape and not be the bad Dunn. Are you confident Dunn will hit over .100 next April/May again? If you were a GM would you risk that for 10 mill a year??

Ditto Rios. He had no value in trade because when he decided he didn't want to play, his loafing was unacceptable. Crazy team we have in Chicago. If Dunn was valued at all, some big money contender would have claimed him.

 

Seriously, did Rios or Dunn run over your dog?

[lasttriptotulsa]

Seriously, did Rios or Dunn run over your dog?

 

Its hilarious. He thinks a 33 year old Dunn with an .800+ OPS is worthless and should just retire, but a 37 year old Konerko with his .650 OPS is going to get a 2 year deal all because Konerko's batting agerage is 10 points higher. Talk about clueless.

Edited August 13, 2013 by lasttriptotulsa

[hogan873]

I find it funny how much Dunn hate still exists. The guy's been one of the Sox's best hitters for the past month or so. His BA is approaching his career average, he still hits homeruns, and he's obviously made an adjustment because he's getting a lot more base hits than he has in the past. All that said, $15 million is too much for him right now, and that's why he wasn't claimed on waivers. Had he been owed $10 million or less he probably would have been claimed.

 

If Dunn has a similar year next year (.225ish, 30+ HRs, 80+RBIs), someone will sign him for a couple years at a discount (less than $10 million per).

[lasttriptotulsa]

I find it funny how much Dunn hate still exists. The guy's been one of the Sox's best hitters for the past month or so. His BA is approaching his career average, he still hits homeruns, and he's obviously made an adjustment because he's getting a lot more base hits than he has in the past. All that said, $15 million is too much for him right now, and that's why he wasn't claimed on waivers. Had he been owed $10 million or less he probably would have been claimed.

 

If Dunn has a similar year next year (.225ish, 30+ HRs, 80+RBIs), someone will sign him for a couple years at a discount (less than $10 million per).

 

Honestly, if he can put up a similar year next year, I would be all for signing him to something like a 2/15 deal.

[Chicago White Sox]

I was all for dumping Dunn for salary relief earlier this season, but at this point I'd hold on to him through next year. But I want nothing to do with him after the 2014 season. He will be a 35 year old DH at that point. No thanks to that.

[witesoxfan]

How much is a turd sandwich these days.

 

$25 mill in 2014

$21 mill in 2015

$20 mill in 2016

$20 mill in 2017

[Eminor3rd]

$25 mill in 2014

$21 mill in 2015

$20 mill in 2016

$20 mill in 2017

 

Hamilton? What's crazy is that isn't even as bad as Ryan Howard:

 

$20m in 2013

$25m in 2014

$25m in 2015

$25m in 2016

$25m option in 2017 ($10m buyout)

[southsider2k5]

Hamilton? What's crazy is that isn't even as bad as Ryan Howard:

 

$20m in 2013

$25m in 2014

$25m in 2015

$25m in 2016

$25m option in 2017 ($10m buyout)

 

I'd bet Arod.