Rosenthal: Tanaka to Yankees

[Andy the Clown]

No reason the Sox should not be in the $125-$150M bidding range.

 

There are much better ways to spend that kind of money.

[black jack]

There are much better ways to spend that kind of money.

 

 

Agreed.

I was on the sign him bandwagon, but have since changed my mind.

Get another ace in the draft and spend that money on position players.

[BaseballNick]

There are much better ways to spend that kind of money.

 

The Sox are going to be spending some money in the draft and internationally, but I'm curious what would be considered much better than Tanaka in this environment.

Edited December 25, 2013 by BaseballNick

[Andy the Clown]

The Sox are going to be spending some money in the draft and internationally, but I'm curious what is would be considered much better than Tanaka in this environment.

 

If you're asking me personally, I'd rather we save our money for next year and go after both Jed Lowrie and James Shields.

 

Or we could go really crazy and throw $300 at Kershaw...

[Dick Allen]

If you're asking me personally, I'd rather we save our money for next year and go after both Jed Lowrie and James Shields.

 

Or we could go really crazy and throw $300 at Kershaw...

So a better way to spend money on a 25 year old ace is to throw even more money at a 32 year old or spend $300 million on another.

[GGajewski18]

You give that money to Kershaw and with that rotation. It's just filthy. But instead of saying all that money on him, the hiring market is terrible next year. I could see Sox going after Shields or Bailey.

[BlackSox13]

I just don't see the Sox spending on FA pitchers next year as I doubt it will be necessary. Dunn will be gone so its much more possible the Sox spend money in FA trying to replace him if they can't through a trade somehow.

[The Ultimate Champion]

Let the madness begin on this bidding war. Sox will stay on the sideline and that will be the smart thing to do. My prediction Tanaka will get a contract over $120-$135 million plus the $20 million posting fee. I believe it will go down to the Cubs and Yankees getting Tanaka in the end. For every Darvish their around 5 who don't even come close to fulfilling their expectations (Dice K, Irabu, Kaz Matsui, Fujikawa, the list goes on). This is when Theo gets way over his head and starts making decisions that isn't best for the organization. Before Theo left Boston, he signed the past 5-7 years and left them some of the worst contracts (Crawford, Beckett, Lugo, JD. Drew, Lackey, Dice K, Adrian Gonzalez, and Edgar Renteria) those are just off the top of my head. The common theme to all those deals is the ridiculous amount of years and dollars giving to these players. I do hope Cubs get Tanaka and again have another Soriano contract on their hands. Theo needs to learn and stick by what he's good at and that's player development. All of these long term deals that have been going out for the past 7 years have never panned out. Hahn has really impressed me this offseason and I'm sure he will continue his smarts by taking a seat on the sidelines to the crazy bidding war between the Yankees and Cubs.

This, to a point. His "player development" was more of the same, throwing tons of over slot money at players in the draft and buying a farm system more or less. It's the same thing they're doing in Chicago save for the Rizzo-Cashner deal and probably a couple other moves which were much smaller at the time.

 

I still remember when Varitek had a bad year in his walk season. There was no way any team should have offered him salary arbitration, yet the Red Sox did, Varitek stupidly listened to Borass and Varitek declined it, and the Red Sox ended up getting Varitek back on a much lesser deal. But the fact that they would risk paying an old backup quality catcher the type of wage an above average much younger catcher would normally get, just to try to buy a comp pick, shows what kind of mentality they operated under.

 

The best thing the Cubs have with their new regime is the fact that everyone wants to go in the same direction. If you have as much as they do in resources, you don't need a bunch of geniuses to get good again, you just need to set a course of action and take it, and stay on the same page as an organization. To that end they are doing it, and they will be much better eventually, but they're certainly no geniuses & as you've pointed out, they'll probably make a few nasty mistakes when they start handing out FA contracts again.

[elrockinMT]

So a better way to spend money on a 25 year old ace is to throw even more money at a 32 year old or spend $300 million on another.

 

 

I wonder where a guy like Tanaka or any high priced pitcher from Japan fits in with the Sox plans, but I say let's give it a try to sign him. It might make things interesting

[Andy the Clown]

So a better way to spend money on a 25 year old ace is to throw even more money at a 32 year old or spend $300 million on another.

 

My presumption is that you could get both Shields and Lowrie for $150. If not, move onto something else.

 

The idea of Tanaka being an ace is a big assumption. I think he's a #3 guy.

[Andy the Clown]

You give that money to Kershaw and with that rotation. It's just filthy. But instead of saying all that money on him, the hiring market is terrible next year. I could see Sox going after Shields or Bailey.

 

And Shields will be within our price range due to his age.

[DukeNukeEm]

And Shields will be within our price range due to his age.

When every team in baseball thinks that its no longer true.

[Marty34]

My presumption is that you could get both Shields and Lowrie for $150. If not, move onto something else.

 

The idea of Tanaka being an ace is a big assumption. I think he's a #3 guy.

 

As Dick Allen pointed out Tanaka is just 25. If he is only a 3, he's going to be a 3 for a long time. There's a lot of value in that.

[sin city sox fan]

Sign him and trade him to the Angels for Trout

[ScottyDo]

Sign him and trade him to the Angels for Trout

Green?

 

Why wouldn't the Angels just sign him and not give up Trout?

[PolishPrince34]

This, to a point. His "player development" was more of the same, throwing tons of over slot money at players in the draft and buying a farm system more or less. It's the same thing they're doing in Chicago save for the Rizzo-Cashner deal and probably a couple other moves which were much smaller at the time.

 

I still remember when Varitek had a bad year in his walk season. There was no way any team should have offered him salary arbitration, yet the Red Sox did, Varitek stupidly listened to Borass and Varitek declined it, and the Red Sox ended up getting Varitek back on a much lesser deal. But the fact that they would risk paying an old backup quality catcher the type of wage an above average much younger catcher would normally get, just to try to buy a comp pick, shows what kind of mentality they operated under.

 

The best thing the Cubs have with their new regime is the fact that everyone wants to go in the same direction. If you have as much as they do in resources, you don't need a bunch of geniuses to get good again, you just need to set a course of action and take it, and stay on the same page as an organization. To that end they are doing it, and they will be much better eventually, but they're certainly no geniuses & as you've pointed out, they'll probably make a few nasty mistakes when they start handing out FA contracts again.

[/quote

Theo has already made one bad deal: Edwin Jackson

[Kyyle23]

Sign him and trade him to the Angels for Trout

 

Well, first you turn your trade restrictions off on your xbox

[Jake]

IMO, his ceiling in terms of value to team is the same as Abreu. I'm not paying twice the rate just because he's a starter -- that makes me LESS inclined to pay him because of the injury risk.

 

I'd pay him a lot of money, but not anywhere very close to $100M. I'd just assume pay a "number 2" guy half that

[witesoxfan]

Let the madness begin on this bidding war. Sox will stay on the sideline and that will be the smart thing to do. My prediction Tanaka will get a contract over $120-$135 million plus the $20 million posting fee. I believe it will go down to the Cubs and Yankees getting Tanaka in the end. For every Darvish their around 5 who don't even come close to fulfilling their expectations (Dice K, Irabu, Kaz Matsui, Fujikawa, the list goes on). This is when Theo gets way over his head and starts making decisions that isn't best for the organization. Before Theo left Boston, he signed the past 5-7 years and left them some of the worst contracts (Crawford, Beckett, Lugo, JD. Drew, Lackey, Dice K, Adrian Gonzalez, and Edgar Renteria) those are just off the top of my head. The common theme to all those deals is the ridiculous amount of years and dollars giving to these players. I do hope Cubs get Tanaka and again have another Soriano contract on their hands. Theo needs to learn and stick by what he's good at and that's player development. All of these long term deals that have been going out for the past 7 years have never panned out. Hahn has really impressed me this offseason and I'm sure he will continue his smarts by taking a seat on the sidelines to the crazy bidding war between the Yankees and Cubs.

 

You had to go all the way back to Irabu to make your point. What about Nomo? Hideki Matsui? Ichiro? Iguchi? Aoki? Any number of relievers that came over? Kaz Sasaki? There is plenty of evidence to see that it's, at the worst, 50/50, and a lot of those guys had at least some success during their careers.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/bio/Japan_born.shtml

 

There are plenty of guys who have been incredibly successful, and the pitchers are slightly better than 50/50.

 

If they've done their homework, and they believe the guy is legit, there's no reason for them not to be involved.

[Dick Allen]

If you are ever going to spend $100+ on a free agent pitcher, a 25 year old is your best bet considering the length the contract is going to have to be to get him. I realize the Sox have next to no chance to get him, but not getting involved would be a mistake. Make him say no. Pick 4 of Sale, Tanaka, Q, Johnson, the #3 pick...I could be the 5th starter and that team would be tough to beat. This is exactly what you get to build teams around. Scouts say he has the best splitter in the world, and say he should adapt faster to MLB because, unlike most Japanese pitchers, he pitches off his fastball. Most pitch backwards. The risk you take is an injury risk, but you take that with every player you acquire. I don't think there's much of a chance he's not very successful if he is healthy.

 

At worst, if he performs, you can always trade him. The Sox signed Peavy last year. It didn't work out but did turn into Avasail Garcia. Money doesn't appear to be much of an object these days. Bring as many quality players to your team as possible.

Edited December 26, 2013 by Dick Allen

[The Ultimate Champion]

You had to go all the way back to Irabu to make your point. What about Nomo? Hideki Matsui? Ichiro? Iguchi? Aoki? Any number of relievers that came over? Kaz Sasaki? There is plenty of evidence to see that it's, at the worst, 50/50, and a lot of those guys had at least some success during their careers.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/bio/Japan_born.shtml

 

There are plenty of guys who have been incredibly successful, and the pitchers are slightly better than 50/50.

 

If they've done their homework, and they believe the guy is legit, there's no reason for them not to be involved.

No reason?

 

When's the last time the Sox spent an average of around $20M+ per season on anyone?

 

When's the last time the Sox went 5+ years on a free agent pitcher, in fact, when is the last time they've gone 7 years?

 

Every single offseason there are #3 quality starters with the stuff to dominate a game on the market, and usually there are guys you can sign for 4 years or less. Also there are always types with a bit more upside looking to rebuild value, ala Josh Johnson this year.

 

Further, we have an organization that specializes in picking pitching out of other organizations/off the scrap heap and turning it into something worthwhile.

 

Lastly, the strength of or organization is pitching, the weakness is everything else.

 

There are plenty of reasons not to piss away a huge chunk of payroll space and potentially several seasons of offseason flexibility on a guy who has never pitched in MLB & who probably isn't even an ace anyway.

 

Should the Sox offer a $20M bid plus a 6 year, $75M salary? Maybe, that's a lot and still pretty risky. But that's not going to get it done. The Sox would be forced to bid against angry, aggressive stupidity to "win" by assuming what is probably going to be the biggest on-paper financial risk of the offseason. No thanks.

[The Ultimate Champion]

If you are ever going to spend $100+ on a free agent pitcher, a 25 year old is your best bet considering the length the contract is going to have to be to get him. I realize the Sox have next to no chance to get him, but not getting involved would be a mistake. Make him say no. Pick 4 of Sale, Tanaka, Q, Johnson, the #3 pick...I could be the 5th starter and that team would be tough to beat. This is exactly what you get to build teams around. Scouts say he has the best splitter in the world, and say he should adapt faster to MLB because, unlike most Japanese pitchers, he pitches off his fastball. Most pitch backwards. The risk you take is an injury risk, but you take that with every player you acquire. I don't think there's much of a chance he's not very successful if he is healthy.

 

At worst, if he performs, you can always trade him. The Sox signed Peavy last year. It didn't work out but did turn into Avasail Garcia. Money doesn't appear to be much of an object these days. Bring as many quality players to your team as possible.

And the longer you are contracted to pay that player the larger the risk. The more money you owe him the harder he is to trade. And if you owe him a lot and he gets hurt, you're f***ed.

 

He's getting 7 years. The signing bonuses IIRC are paid in installments to the team, so factoring in that, you're probably looking at something like $20M per over that span if you're going to beat out Theo the Great who refuses to be outbid by anyone. And even then you still might not outbid him. Or the Yankees.

[ScottyDo]

To me, $100M+ deals are for "finishing touches" because the value of a few wins inflates the closer you get to World Series contention. I get that this guy is young and potentially great, but how long ago was the Yu Darvish signing? 2 years ago? Why are we so certain that another phenom won't come along when the Sox are actually in position to take on his contract and do something with it?

[The Ultimate Champion]

To me, $100M+ deals are for "finishing touches" because the value of a few wins inflates the closer you get to World Series contention. I get that this guy is young and potentially great, but how long ago was the Yu Darvish signing? 2 years ago? Why are we so certain that another phenom won't come along when the Sox are actually in position to take on his contract and do something with it?

This, and how certain are we that we won't sign someone out of Cuba? Or actually draft someone who turns out really good? Or develop a couple more of our pitching prospects? Or trade for someone already good? Or pick up a reclamation project and turn it around?

 

If the Cubs want to be idiots, let them be idiots. The Sox are doing this thing the right way.

[witesoxfan]

No reason?

 

When's the last time the Sox spent an average of around $20M+ per season on anyone?

 

This doesn't seem like a very good reason to stay away.

 

When's the last time the Sox went 5+ years on a free agent pitcher, in fact, when is the last time they've gone 7 years?

 

Every single offseason there are #3 quality starters with the stuff to dominate a game on the market, and usually there are guys you can sign for 4 years or less. Also there are always types with a bit more upside looking to rebuild value, ala Josh Johnson this year.

 

Further, we have an organization that specializes in picking pitching out of other organizations/off the scrap heap and turning it into something worthwhile.

 

Lastly, the strength of or organization is pitching, the weakness is everything else.

 

There are plenty of reasons not to piss away a huge chunk of payroll space and potentially several seasons of offseason flexibility on a guy who has never pitched in MLB & who probably isn't even an ace anyway.

 

Should the Sox offer a $20M bid plus a 6 year, $75M salary? Maybe, that's a lot and still pretty risky. But that's not going to get it done. The Sox would be forced to bid against angry, aggressive stupidity to "win" by assuming what is probably going to be the biggest on-paper financial risk of the offseason. No thanks.

 

Yes, there are #3 guys available. Tanaka has ace quality upside - this is a guy who put up an ERA of like 2 the last 3 years combined. Players like him don't become available very often. If you have both him and Sale, along with all the others, you suddenly have a ton of assets that can be dealt for offensive pieces to improve your overall team. The Sox would be able to justify trading Erik Johnson for Grandal at that point. Isn't that what people want?

 

If they believe Tanaka is a guy who can give you 200+ innings and put up an ERA of 3.00 (give or take), then, no, there is no reason they shouldn't be involved. Yes, they probably don't get him, but you are at least putting yourself out there.