I'll say he matches what Cespedes did he first year only in more games (Cespedes played 129 games, I'll say Abreu plays in the 140s).... .290/.355/.505 25-30 HRs 90-100 RBI 120-140 Ks. I'll also add that he'll be clutch as funk.

 

That's what I was going for with my prediction of 104 RBI based off only a .270 AVG and 28 HR. I see a lot of doubles, and a great AVG W/RISP.

Is anyone else tired of the Soxtalk user acting like he's Jose Abreu shtick yet?

 

No, because it doesn't matter, and it's easy to ignore. I don't think it's particularly funny, but it also doesn't bother me if it makes him happy.

No, because it doesn't matter, and it's easy to ignore. I don't think it's particularly funny, but it also doesn't bother me if it makes him happy.

I'm down with this angle.

What makes you think his AVG W/RISP will be so strong.

 

Absolutely nothing. Guessing RBI totals is completely a crap shoot (other than the HRx3 baseline number), so by picking such a high RBI total without having a great AVG or high HR count, the most logical way to bridge that gap is that the player is great W/RISP. I have no reason to believe he will be or won't be, I'm just hoping he will be to justify my RBI prediction.

Edited January 13, 201412 yr by Chilihead90

I understand this, that is why I questioned such a baseless prediction.

 

It was moreorless because I wrote all my predictions in, and then as I was doing the rankings I realized how high I put the RBI count relative to everything else, but I am a person who likes to go with my gut, so I said "f*** it" and left it. It's much more likely if he is hitting 28 HR, that his RBI total will be around 85-90, or if he hits reaches 104 RBI that his HR total will be more like 33-35. Oh well, going with the gut and hoping he rakes W/RISP.

Is anyone else tired of the Soxtalk user acting like he's Jose Abreu shtick yet?

You mean he really isn't Abreu? Damn! First Santa, then the Easter Bunny and now Abreu? Don't know how much more I can take.

Is anyone else tired of the Soxtalk user acting like he's Jose Abreu shtick yet?

 

schtick like that makes me feel like i just wanna scream, flick someone off and storm off the field

schtick like that makes me feel like i just wanna scream, flick someone off and storm off the field

I laughed.

schtick like that makes me feel like i just wanna scream, flick someone off and storm off the field

 

Quit acting like Jose Paniagua, I'm tired of it.

Is anyone else tired of the Soxtalk user acting like he's Jose Abreu shtick yet?

 

A bit annoying, maybe, but far from the most annoying shtick I've seen on a message board. On another board that I frequent, there is a guy whose avatar is an unshaven guy in a giant cowboy hat, he types in ALL CAPS, and nearly every word he types has the first few letters of the word replaced by an apostrophe, as if he is trying to portray a cowboy accent in print.

 

schtick like that makes me feel like i just wanna scream, flick someone off and storm off the field

 

Threadwin.

A bit annoying, maybe, but far from the most annoying shtick I've seen on a message board. On another board that I frequent, there is a guy whose avatar is an unshaven guy in a giant cowboy hat, he types in ALL CAPS, and nearly every word he types has the first few letters of the word replaced by an apostrophe, as if he is trying to portray a cowboy accent in print.

 

That actually sounds pretty awesome.

 

LOL at Abreu's baseball reference page.

 

In 2009-2010, Abreu had his best year yet, hitting .399/.555/.822 with 82 runs, 30 homers, 76 RBI and 74 walks to 49 strikeouts in 89 games.

 

José continued to improve in 2010-2011 with one of the greatest seasons in Cuban history. He hit .453/.597/.986 with 79 runs, 93 RBI and 33 home runs in only 66 games

 

He was the All-Star first baseman in the 2011 Baseball World Cup, hitting .442/.478/.721 with 3 home runs and 10 runs in 11 games.

 

Abreu remained dominant in the 2011 Pan American Games, hitting .524/.561/1.048 with 3 home runs, 5 runs and 9 RBI in five games, with great performances almost every time out

 

During 2011-2012 Abreu hit .394/.542/.837 with 75 walks, 22 HBP, 35 home runs, 71 runs and 99 RBI in 87 games for Cienfuegos

 

In 2012-2013 Abreu produced at a .382/.535/.735 clip with 13 home runs, 37 runs, 36 RBI and 37 walks in 42 games

 

Yeah, I think I'm gonna go the non-pansy route and predict an .850 OPS in his first year.

He's going to have a 40/40 year. 40 HR and 40 RBI. Because of our lineup

 

That actually sounds pretty awesome.

 

LOL at Abreu's baseball reference page.

 

Yeah, I think I'm gonna go the non-pansy route and predict an .850 OPS in his first year.

 

I agree. There's going to be a transition initially, but he has insane bat speed and plate coverage and he his swing path is wonderful. I am thinking .850-.900 OPS, 140-150 wRC+.

I am releasing an official media statement on those complaining about my username shortly.

Actually, once I posted something about Abreu and another user asked me why I was typing in 3rd person. This was just a couple weeks ago. Wasn't really my idea nor do I enjoy doing it/think it's funny, but if I don't make a comment about me talking in the 3rd person, some smartash will do it and it just becomes a big cycle.

.301/ .360 OBP/ .910 OPS 37 HR/ 108 RBI

I agree. There's going to be a transition initially, but he has insane bat speed and plate coverage and he his swing path is wonderful. I am thinking .850-.900 OPS, 140-150 wRC+.

Who has him having insane bat speed? Everything I've read has concern over his "slider-speed" bat speed, and good fastballs eating him up.

 

I'll say .270/.350/.490 25-85 would be my own realistic expectation.

I know Fangraphs broke down his swings, but has any of the sabr sites ever attempted a projection of JDA?

It might not be reasonable to expect him to walk as much as he did in Cuba. It's almost certain that the intimidation factor resulted in many teams simply going around him. MLB pitchers will likely come after him, at least until he proves that he can hit them. So, while he may not walk as much, he may hit more than most of us expect.

 

He has demonstrated an amazing ability to put the bat on the ball, when challenged. The issue of bat speed is over rated. A hitter needs sufficient bat speed to get the bat to the hitting zone quickly.

It's more important to rotate the lower body first, and accelerate the bat, with greater torque, as it approaches the ball. The speed as measured from the beginning of the swing is not as important as the torque and velocity of the bat as it meets the ball. As long as the hitter can get the bat in the zone quickly enough, his bat speed as it approaches the ball is more important that the total velocity of the entire swing.

 

The "Axis of Rotation" and "Bat Lag" portions of this article explain the principles of kinesiology involved:

 

http://www.leaguelineup.com/mmjba/files/BIOKINETIC06.pdf

 

Frank Thomas was never known for having extraordinary bat speed, but it didn't impede him from being one of the greatest hitters in the history of the game. And that is without even considering the "hands before the barrel of the bat" swing he used to hit the ball to right field, with such proficiency. Ted Williams also was not known for bat speed, but what an amazing hitter he was. Like Thomas, he was an incredibly smart hitter, and had great eye sight. I understand that there are other examples of hitters, such as Barry Bonds, whose greatness may have been related to their bat speed, but extraordinary bat speed is not essential.

 

Abreu is big and strong enough to hit the ball a very long way, and his power doesn't rely upon bat speed alone. It would be very interesting to know how he fared against pitchers who challenged him with mid 90's fastballs.

 

When a hitter dominates like Abreu has, at any level, you have to concede that he has an extraordinary ability to put the bat on the ball, with a very good result. I'm not going to be surprised if he surpasses most expectations.

Unlike many of you, I would expect him to do better right out of the "starting gate", and then slow down as pitchers stop challenging him. That will be when it will become more important for the Sox to provide him some protection in the line up. If a big part of that equation is Adam Dunn, all I can say is; good luck with that.

Edited January 14, 201412 yr by Lillian

I know Fangraphs broke down his swings, but has any of the sabr sites ever attempted a projection of JDA?

The thread is a long, long time ago (before he was signed) but when people applied one of those "league conversion" metrics to the numbers he put up in Cuba and asked how those numbers projected to the U.S., his projected numbers compared favorably to Miguel Cabrera's.

 

That could mean one of two things. Either he'll come in and hit an awful lot like a hall of famer right out of the gate, or the numbers he's put up in Cuba are so incredible that there's really no comparison and the assumptions of how the league scales break down when you're destroying a league like he did.

He faced the same competition as Puig, Cespedas, and Viciedo.....which he absolutely killed, and we have guys predicting he do no better than last years Dayan? GMAB...

 

Who has him having insane bat speed? Everything I've read has concern over his "slider-speed" bat speed, and good fastballs eating him up.

 

I'll say .270/.350/.490 25-85 would be my own realistic expectation.

 

Maybe insane is wrong, but it's not slider speed.

 

He faced the same competition as Puig, Cespedas, and Viciedo.....which he absolutely killed, and we have guys predicting he do no better than last years Dayan? GMAB...

 

 

My expectations of 20 HR and .260 avg. are lower than many are projecting. But I am basing them on what I read on Abreu from Red Sox media sources when they were involved in the bidding. They basically felt that he needed to start in AAA and work on hitting AAA pitching and especially defensive fundamentals. Now the Red Sox have Napoli at first( although he was a free agent at that time and Ortiz as a DH) so they didn't need Abreu immediately. The feeling in Boston was Abreu would be Ortiz's replacement in 2015 since they felt he would be a defensive liabilty even at 1B. Hopefully they are wrong.

I know Fangraphs broke down his swings, but has any of the sabr sites ever attempted a projection of JDA?

Davenport translator (Eno Sarris at BP) puts him at .321/.446/.660 for his first full year.

 

AS people said at the time... I think he broke the formula.