5/12 Games

[danman31]

In true Mr. Pessimism form, this has been a bad year for Sox prospects. Two shocking busts so far this year in Davidson and E. Johnson.

It's not just you. The system truly blows again. Good thing they have a high pick in the draft to hopefully get a few good prospects. There's a lot more stock down guys than stock up guys and a lot of guys graduated to thin the ranks a bit, too.

[Jake]

In true Mr. Pessimism form, this has been a bad year for Sox prospects. Two shocking busts so far this year in Davidson and E. Johnson.

 

Use of the word "bust" is debatable. Being bad for a month and some change isn't quite "bust" level, especially given their ages and experience levels. Johnson, in particular, has had a mysterious loss of velocity that I hope is resolved sooner rather than later, even if that means diagnosing him with an injury.

[fathom]

It's not just you. The system truly blows again. Good thing they have a high pick in the draft to hopefully get a few good prospects. There's a lot more stock down guys than stock up guys and a lot of guys graduated to thin the ranks a bit, too.

 

It seems like the players that are performing the best (Johnson, Ravelo, Danish) have lower ceilings than the guys that are struggling. Even if Davidson turns his season around, it wouldn't shock me at all if he's used as a trade chip. It seems the Sox really like Gillaspie.

[Jake]

Johnson and Danish have extremely high ceilings.

 

Johnson has plus speed, good contact rates, high walk rates, a lot of glove potential, and has pretty nice power production thus far for a non-HR hitter. His ceiling is borderline first-tier 2B.

 

Danish has an ace ceiling. There's a reason they said he has Jake Peavy stuff.

 

Those players just happen to have pretty low floors, too.

[fathom]

Johnson and Danish have extremely high ceilings.

 

Johnson has plus speed, good contact rates, high walk rates, a lot of glove potential, and has pretty nice power production thus far for a non-HR hitter. His ceiling is borderline first-tier 2B.

 

Danish has an ace ceiling. There's a reason they said he has Jake Peavy stuff.

 

Those players just happen to have pretty low floors, too.

 

Peavy used to throw in the 94 mph range. Darvish is reportedly throwing in the 88-89 range. I'm a big fan of T. Danish, but the Peavy comparison is ridiculous. Even Trevor Cahill put up huge strikeout numbers in the minors with his sinker.

[caulfield12]

Johnson and Danish have extremely high ceilings.

 

Johnson has plus speed, good contact rates, high walk rates, a lot of glove potential, and has pretty nice power production thus far for a non-HR hitter. His ceiling is borderline first-tier 2B.

 

Danish has an ace ceiling. There's a reason they said he has Jake Peavy stuff.

 

Those players just happen to have pretty low floors, too.

 

I would love to see Danish throwing 95-97/98 like Peavy in his absolute prime. But he's not anywhere close to that right now, is he? Mostly low 90's, 89-91/92, yes?

 

Danish is closer to Zach Putnam right now than Cy Young/healthy Jake Peavy at his best in SD.

Edited May 13, 2014 by caulfield12

[ILMOU]

It seems like the players that are performing the best (Johnson, Ravelo, Danish) have lower ceilings than the guys that are struggling. Even if Davidson turns his season around, it wouldn't shock me at all if he's used as a trade chip. It seems the Sox really like Gillaspie.

Johnson and Danish have plenty of ceiling, Danish especially. In this radar-gun-ruled world of pitching scouting (which is largely responsible for the rash of injuries), he'll likely be vastly underrated until he's dominating in the majors - but it's coming.

 

I would love to see Danish throwing 95-97/98 like Peavy in his absolute prime. But he's not anywhere close to that right now, is he? Mostly low 90's, 89-91/92, yes?

 

The sun doesn't rise and set on the radar gun. He's going to be just fine.

Edited May 13, 2014 by Stan Bahnsen

[caulfield12]

Johnson and Danish have plenty of ceiling, Danish especially. In this radar-gun-ruled world of pitching scouting (which is largely responsible for the rash of injuries), he'll likely be vastly underrated until he's dominating in the majors - but it's coming.

 

 

 

The sun doesn't rise and set on the radar gun. He's going to be just fine.

 

We shall see with Johnson. That will be the first test.

 

But yeah, Carroll and Putnam have succeeded pitching mostly in the 80's. Dylan Axelrod, not so much.

Edited May 13, 2014 by caulfield12

[Jake]

Danish was often clocked in the 94-95 range before being drafted. Perfect Game has recorded his velocity in tournaments way back in 2012 where he sat 90-93. I'm going to assume that, over time, we'll see Tyler get back to that. It seems that we have asked him to consciously back it off a little bit.

[danman31]

It's official. Tyler Danish is by far the most overrated prospect in the system. Geez.

[fathom]

Micah Johnson does not have good power. He's not Carlos Sanchez, but I don't think he is a double-digit HR guy in the majors.

[caulfield12]

Micah Johnson does not have good power. He's not Carlos Sanchez, but I don't think he is a double-digit HR guy in the majors.

 

At best, he's Ray Durham-esque his first five years in the big leagues.

 

Maybe in his 30's, he puts on weight and becomes a 12-18 homer guy, but that's not his game right now.

[fathom]

Funny thing with this argument is I really like Johnson and Danish. However, it is disappointing to me that they are two of our three best prospects along with Anderson. In a top 10 system, those guys would be in the 8-10 range in my opinion.

[caulfield12]

Funny thing with this argument is I really like Johnson and Danish. However, it is disappointing to me that they are two of our three best prospects along with Anderson. In a top 10 system, those guys would be in the 8-10 range in my opinion.

 

 

Yes, then you have Beck and Trayce Thompson falling backwards, too.

 

Actually, Davidson should have been Top 3, based on the 2013 season. Not sure if he managed to get 130 at-bats at the big league level or not.

[chisox0587]

Use of the word "bust" is debatable. Being bad for a month and some change isn't quite "bust" level, especially given their ages and experience levels. Johnson, in particular, has had a mysterious loss of velocity that I hope is resolved sooner rather than later, even if that means diagnosing him with an injury.

 

 

Just diagnose him with an elbow injury and Tommy John Surgery.... everyone's doing it... 2014 "The year of Tommy John surgery" Latest victim... Marlins ace right handed pitcher

[thxfrthmmrs]

Johnson and Danish have extremely high ceilings.

 

Johnson has plus speed, good contact rates, high walk rates, a lot of glove potential, and has pretty nice power production thus far for a non-HR hitter. His ceiling is borderline first-tier 2B.

 

Danish has an ace ceiling. There's a reason they said he has Jake Peavy stuff.

 

Those players just happen to have pretty low floors, too.

 

Do you have any information on Johnson's defense that we do not have? So far I've not heard many good things about his glove.

 

Also, I think the comparison to Peavy for Danish is more about the 3/4 arm slot and the bulldog mentality, stuff wise is a different story.

[NorthSideSox72]

It's official. Tyler Danish is by far the most overrated prospect in the system. Geez.

Dan and I actually agree here. That's kinda rare.

 

 

[balfanman]

Or he's got a big, slow, loopy swing that he can use to capitalize against inferior pitching that is sometimes on the mound in AAA, whereas that opportunity rarely shows itself in the majors.

 

This sparks a question from me. I've always liked Jordan Danks as a prospect, mainly because he's an above average defensive CF (I would prefer him over any of the garbage outfielders on the Big League club now) and it seemed he was always one who's bat finally came around after a few months at one level. Is his swing just too long for the majors or what?

 

The follow up question to this would be about his personality. I do not know him personally, nor have I read much about him on a personal level. Is he just too stubborn to shorten his swing, or does he really not have that much offensive potential? Have the hitting coaches been working with him at all,, or does he not listen? I'd appreciate any insight from those more in the know.

[NorthSideSox72]

This sparks a question from me. I've always liked Jordan Danks as a prospect, mainly because he's an above average defensive CF (I would prefer him over any of the garbage outfielders on the Big League club now) and it seemed he was always one who's bat finally came around after a few months at one level. Is his swing just too long for the majors or what?

 

The follow up question to this would be about his personality. I do not know him personally, nor have I read much about him on a personal level. Is he just too stubborn to shorten his swing, or does he really not have that much offensive potential? Have the hitting coaches been working with him at all,, or does he not listen? I'd appreciate any insight from those more in the know.

His swing has always been long, though there is power there. So he did well at lower levels, but more polished pitchers give him trouble. I've seen him try to shorten up on occasion, but not consistently.

 

I don't know his personality either, but I can tell you that making significant mechanical changes to a hitter's swing is not an easy process. Many hitters need to, and only some percentage of those are able to do so and re-establish a consistent approach. Perhaps sometimes it is stubbornness, but I suspect some of the time they simply aren't able to for one or more reasons. I can only theorize what those may be.

 

[Balta1701]

His swing has always been long, though there is power there. So he did well at lower levels, but more polished pitchers give him trouble. I've seen him try to shorten up on occasion, but not consistently.

 

I don't know his personality either, but I can tell you that making significant mechanical changes to a hitter's swing is not an easy process. Many hitters need to, and only some percentage of those are able to do so and re-establish a consistent approach. Perhaps sometimes it is stubbornness, but I suspect some of the time they simply aren't able to for one or more reasons. I can only theorize what those may be.

I think Jordan, like Tyler, is a guy who they've tried to remake his swing and when he's made bigger changes his numbers have gotten worse, not better.

[southsider2k5]

Johnson and Danish have extremely high ceilings.

 

Johnson has plus speed, good contact rates, high walk rates, a lot of glove potential, and has pretty nice power production thus far for a non-HR hitter. His ceiling is borderline first-tier 2B.

 

Danish has an ace ceiling. There's a reason they said he has Jake Peavy stuff.

 

Those players just happen to have pretty low floors, too.

 

I like the Peavy comp on Danish, though for a bit different reason. Danish's stuff is unconventional. He isn't a guy you feel like you have seen before, and that makes hitters uncomfortable. It is the same reason submariners and knuckballers find niche's on teams. Peavy has a really unconventional motion and stuff too. Even with his reduced pitch speeds, he still gets lots of outs and K's.

 

Danish strikes me in the same vein.

[ILMOU]

I like the Peavy comp on Danish, though for a bit different reason. Danish's stuff is unconventional. He isn't a guy you feel like you have seen before, and that makes hitters uncomfortable. It is the same reason submariners and knuckballers find niche's on teams. Peavy has a really unconventional motion and stuff too. Even with his reduced pitch speeds, he still gets lots of outs and K's.

 

Danish strikes me in the same vein.

Hawk often talks about a pitcher throwing 90 or so, appearing much faster to the hitter depending upon the delivery. TD is an extreme case of this.

[witesoxfan]

Dan and I actually agree here. That's kinda rare.

 

It's all 3 of us, which is crazy.