Brady Aiken DID NOT SIGN

[Kyyle23]

http://deadspin.com/the-astros-are-trying-...heir-1605258309

The Astros selected high school pitcher Brady Aiken with the first overall pick in this year's amateur draft, and quickly came to a verbal agreement that would pay Aiken a $6.5 million bonus, a notch down from the $7.9 million slot value that was assigned the No. 1 pick. But now the Astros are trying to wriggle out of the deal after a physical revealed an alleged "abnormality" in Aiken's elbow—we'll here note that pretty much every pitcher has abnormalities in their arm if you want to go looking for them—and his agent, Casey Close, is pissed.

 

Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal got in touch with Close, who believes that the Astros are using this apparent physical issue as an excuse to game the entire draft system. The team is trying to pressure Aiken into accepting a deal for $3.1 million, and Close believes that they are using another one of his clients, fifth-round pick Jacob Nix, as leverage. The Astros had already agreed to a $1.5 million deal with Nix, but now they are threatening to rescind the deal if Aiken doesn't sign at a reduced rate.

 

Agent calls foul on Astros, MLB in negotiations with No. 1 overall pickAgent calls foul on Astros, MLB in negotiations with No. 1 overall pickAgent calls foul on Astros, MLB in negotiations wi

Agent Casey Slose calls foul on Houston Astros and MLB in negotiations with No. 1 overall draft…

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The Astros are doing this because they are trying to dance around baseball's draft rules. Each team is assigned a "bonus pool" by the league before each draft, a total dollar amount that teams are allowed to spend on draft-pick bonuses. This year, the Astros' pool was $13,362,200, but if they fail to sign Aiken, his $7.9 million slot value gets lopped off the top of that. If the Astros were then to honor Nix's $1.5 million deal, they would end up spending more money than was in their pool, and would be penalized by losing at least one future draft pick. This is also why the Astros are offering Aiken exactly $3.1 million—as long as they offer Aiken least 40 percent of his slot value, they will get the second overall pick in the 2015 draft if he ends up not signing.

 

[witesoxfan]

I don't want to make accusatory statements either, but there's just something that doesn't feel right here.

[iamshack]

Maybe someone in the front office suggested that they "find an abnormality" to try and save some resources? This is a team that wanted to give George Springer a 7 year, $13 million deal so he could play on Opening Day and, when he turned it down, they sent him to the minors. They are not the most ethically sound organization at the moment, but they have shown that they know how to game the system and have been willing to do so.

The Springer situation is different though...that is just business, IMO. Maybe not the best for relationship-building, but that is business.

 

This is in a whole other realm if they are simply imagining the injury.

 

And like I said, to save $2-3 million? If that were true, just wait til the kid has logged 2-3 years of service time and they try and buy out his arb years and a FA year or two. They'll pay about 5 times that discount if indeed the kid is willing to sign with them at all.

[Dick Allen]

http://deadspin.com/the-astros-are-trying-...heir-1605258309

Well that changes things, but why go that cheap on the #1 overall pick? He still agreed to sign way below slot.

[Kyyle23]

Well that changes things, but why go that cheap on the #1 overall pick? He still agreed to sign way below slot.

 

There is a piece to this whole puzzle that is missing.

[iamshack]

Well that changes things, but why go that cheap on the #1 overall pick? He still agreed to sign way below slot.

They rescinded the offer they made to the 5th round pick when they discovered the issue with Aiken's MRI. They had offered Nix an amount based on Aiken signing at $6.5 million. So now, they have to either pay someone they consider to possibly be damaged goods enough to agree to a contract, or else they lose the entire slot value form their pool, which would then cause them to exceed that pool by enough to cost them a future draft pick if they were to sign Nix.

 

Essentially, they have to choose between overpaying someone they believe may be injured, losing their 5th round pick in this year's draft, losing their first round pick in this year's draft but getting the second pick next year, or losing their pick and getting no compensation at all.

 

Or, they can convince Aiken to sign for something below the $6.5 million and receive a player they believe may be injured, but then be able to sign the 5th round pick.

[iamshack]

There is a piece to this whole puzzle that is missing.

The piece that is missing is whether what they are seeing is valid or not, and whether that concern will manifest itself down the road or not. That's really it.

[witesoxfan]

The Springer situation is different though...that is just business, IMO. Maybe not the best for relationship-building, but that is business.

 

This is in a whole other realm if they are simply imagining the injury.

 

And like I said, to save $2-3 million? If that were true, just wait til the kid has logged 2-3 years of service time and they try and buy out his arb years and a FA year or two. They'll pay about 5 times that discount if indeed the kid is willing to sign with them at all.

 

But look at their #1 pick last year. Appel signed for $6.5 mill and he's been absolutely horrendous this year, and who knows if he'll ever become anything. Same thing with Aiken - who knows what he's going to become. It's easier to swallow a $3.16 million sunk cost than a $5 or $6.5 million sunk cost.

 

I don't understand it, but there's fishy business going on here. This could get really ugly, even if Aiken IS hurt.

[Dick Allen]

There is a piece to this whole puzzle that is missing.

Now I'm thinking their consolation prize may be enough for them to do this. The kid probably hired an agent, not an advisor, so he probably can't play in college, they are still giving him good money, they won't lose a pick, maybe they think he's a sucker, telling him his physical wasn't clean and pressuring him and his agent, all the while knowing if he doesn't sign, well, the second pick next year is better than forfeiting a pick next year.

 

If they are playing games, they are going to have a hard time getting players to negotiate and take physicals for them. I just don't see where this is worth it unless there is something obviously wrong, yet the agent has 3 doctors that say he's fine. I'm glad this is happening in Houston and not with the White Sox.

Edited July 15, 2014 by Dick Allen

[iamshack]

But look at their #1 pick last year. Appel signed for $6.5 mill and he's been absolutely horrendous this year, and who knows if he'll ever become anything. Same thing with Aiken - who knows what he's going to become. It's easier to swallow a $3.16 million sunk cost than a $5 or $6.5 million sunk cost.

 

I don't understand it, but there's fishy business going on here. This could get really ugly, even if Aiken IS hurt.

I don't think Appel has anything to do with this. If they were uncomfortable with the proposition of taking on this much risk, why wouldn't they have drafted Nola or Schwarber or someone else with more predictability that they could sign for less?

 

This is just a tremendous amount of risk to your reputation as an organization for the amount of reward present. I've got to believe they are intelligent enough to realize that.

[iamshack]

Now I'm thinking their consolation prize may be enough for them to do this. The kid probably hired an agent, not an advisor, so he probably can't play in college, they are still giving him good money, they won't lose a pick, maybe they think he's a sucker, telling him his physical wasn't clean and pressuring him and his agent, all the while knowing if he doesn't sign, well, the second pick next year is better than forfeiting a pick next year.

 

If they are playing games, they are going to have a hard time getting players to negotiate and take physicals for them. I just don't see where this is worth it unless there is something obviously wrong, yet the agent has 3 doctors that say he's fine. I'm glad this is happening in Houston and not with the White Sox.

But he can take a college scholarship if he fails to sign. He can also re-enter the draft later if he chooses.

[Quin]

If Aiken hired an agent, he can't go pitch in college, right?

 

So...what happens there?

[iamshack]

If Aiken hired an agent, he can't go pitch in college, right?

 

So...what happens there?

Rosenthal's article states that Casey Close is a "family adviser" and that he can accept a college scholarship if he does not sign.

[NCsoxfan]

Just my two cents but this appears to be Houston really enacting leverage through this "ligament" thing. Aiken will likely end up taking a contract at a much reduced price but this isn't cool at all.

[LittleHurt05]

But he can take a college scholarship if he fails to sign. He can also re-enter the draft later if he chooses.

 

And if he takes that college scholarship then hurts his elbow and can't pitch anymore, he may never earn $3.1 million for the rest of this life.

[Dick Allen]

But he can take a college scholarship if he fails to sign. He can also re-enter the draft later if he chooses.

I think he's ineligible to play in college if Close acted as his agent rather than an advisor. He probably would have to play in an Independent League for a year. If he can retain eligibility he can go to a JC and be in the draft next year, or a 4 year college and wait 3. I am pretty sure he would be considered ineligible at this point to play in college. Maybe they give him a break, but whatever situation, you have to figure even if he takes his 40% slot money, if he's successful, he's not going to be a lifetime Astro.

[iamshack]

I think he's ineligible to play in college if Close acted as his agent rather than an advisor. He probably would have to play in an Independent League for a year. If he can retain eligibility he can go to a JC and be in the draft next year, or a 4 year college and wait 3. I am pretty sure he would be considered ineligible at this point to play in college. Maybe they give him a break, but whatever situation, you have to figure even if he takes his 40% slot money, if he's successful, he's not going to be a lifetime Astro.

I'm just going off of Rosenthal's article, which states he can accept a college scholarship.

 

 

[iamshack]

And if he takes that college scholarship then hurts his elbow and can't pitch anymore, he may never earn $3.1 million for the rest of this life.

Very true. He could have injured himself in high school this year and never earned 3.1 million for the rest of his life. He might injure himself after signing for $6.5 million and never earn the hundreds of millions he might earn if he fulfills his potential as a pitcher. The what-ifs are endless.

[Dick Allen]

I'm just going off of Rosenthal's article, which states he can accept a college scholarship.

I hope he can. Personally, I think they should be able to have agents vs. "advisors". Whcy should the teams be given the upper hand? With the recinding of the 5th rounder offer from the player with the same representation, that doesn't seem just coincidental to me. If the Astros are playing games and Aiken walks away, it wouldn't surprise me if they try to provide evidence he had an agent vs. an advisor. But I'm with you, unless there is really something there that should cause a great concern, this does not make sense from the Astros point of view. If they really are weasels, that is going to come out eventually, and would greatly hurt their future.

[GreenSox]

He just goes to college if he doesn't sign.

 

Which is pretty dumb IMO. I believe he has to wait 2 years and with how hard he throws it wouldn't surprise me one bit if he meets tommy john in those 2 years and doesn't end up getting close to what he could have got this year.

What if he doesn't want to go to college?

They should allow supplemental drafts in baseball;

[Balta1701]

What are the possibilities that the Astros are calling this significantly abnormal when it's really just a minor tear or something to attempted to save themselves an incredible amount of money? Yes, I'm aware how incredibly unethical and illegal that is.

 

On the flip side, if Aiken has had an independent physical done and there is something incredibly wrong with him, he'd be insane not to take the money at this point.

Worth noting a point that came up in the Tanaka discussion in reply to this...I'm not quite sure there is such a thing as a Minor Tear. I believe it was Caulfield who stressed that literally everyone who has tried to pitch through a minor/partially torn tendon in the elbow has wound up tearing it fully within a couple years and going for the TJS.

[iamshack]

Worth noting a point that came up in the Tanaka discussion in reply to this...I'm not quite sure there is such a thing as a Minor Tear. I believe it was Caulfield who stressed that literally everyone who has tried to pitch through a minor/partially torn tendon in the elbow has wound up tearing it fully within a couple years and going for the TJS.

I don't think it would be something that "normal." I think if there was a tear, that there would be less consensus that he was healthy.

 

My guess is this is something the Astros doctors have seen before and have been concerned about, or some abnormality that perhaps they haven't seen before, but that the majority of the medical community does not believe to be concerning.

[Balta1701]

I don't think it would be something that "normal." I think if there was a tear, that there would be less consensus that he was healthy.

 

My guess is this is something the Astros doctors have seen before and have been concerned about, or some abnormality that perhaps they haven't seen before, but that the majority of the medical community does not believe to be concerning.

A full tear yes I agree they'd be saying more than "abnormal", but a deformity or partial tear of some sort leading to a difficult to interpret signal still would fit under the group of "things that have virtually always led to TJS a short time down the line" based on that discussion.

[iamshack]

A full tear yes I agree they'd be saying more than "abnormal", but a deformity or partial tear of some sort leading to a difficult to interpret signal still would fit under the group of "things that have virtually always led to TJS a short time down the line" based on that discussion.

But if there was a partial tear don't you think these other doctors would have spotted it, or at least agreed that the Astros' physicians had reason for concern?

 

I'm just thinking it has to be something a bit more exotic than that for there to be such a disparity of opinions.

[LDF]

The piece that is missing is whether what they are seeing is valid or not, and whether that concern will manifest itself down the road or not. That's really it.

 

and that is the main point or weakness in this discussion. there are no stipulation to ensure

no-one is trying to create a discrepancy to avoid a problem.