I looked at the baserunning component of fWAR, which is calculated via a stat called Ultimate Baserunning (UBR). I wanted to know - who are the least valuable (or most harmful) baserunners of all time? The results didn't disappoint:

 

 

UBR is calculated simply based on whether you advance the amount of bases that would be expected in a given situation. The run value is derived from how different the likelihood of a run scoring is based on where you ended up (say standing on second base vs. advancing to third on a single from first base). It isn't necessarily anti-slow guy and doesn't even account for missed opportunities to leg out force outs at first. But, still, PK and several other recent Sox were really bad on the basepaths.

Edited July 20, 201411 yr by Jake

All those guys are really really slow, so there's no shocker there.

I was surprised to see Aramis so high. That has to be laziness more than anything else.

I didn't need advanced metrics to tell me this.

I didn't need advanced metrics to tell me this.

 

This! Like this is really news to anyone?....my 80 year old aunt runs faster than Konerko.

 

I actually think it's a very valid question - is Konerko the worst baserunner of all time or just one of the worst? Well, he's the worst.

I actually think it's a very valid question - is Konerko the worst baserunner of all time or just one of the worst? Well, he's the worst.

Not the worst. If you can knock yourself in almost 500 times, that makes some worse.

I actually think it's a very valid question - is Konerko the worst baserunner of all time or just one of the worst? Well, he's the worst.

 

UBR is a counting stat, though. If you really wanted to find the worst, you'd have to divide it by games or something.

"AJ Pierzynski is the smartest baserunner in the American League" --Ken Harrelson

Bengie Molina is by far the worst. He had -47 with almost half the PAs as Konerko.

Konerko was already confirmed as the slowest non-fat, non-catcher player in the league.

This is a good new wrinkle - what's more relevant: the accumulation of runs lost on the bases or the runs lost per time spent on base? PK isn't quite the worst when you're looking at a per-baserunning situation.

Christopher Kamka ‏@ckamka 4m

 

Greg Maddux (11) has two more career stolen bases than Paul Konerko (9).

This is a good new wrinkle - what's more relevant: the accumulation of runs lost on the bases or the runs lost per time spent on base? PK isn't quite the worst when you're looking at a per-baserunning situation.

 

The correct denominator is an interesting question. I'm thinking total bases. Because if you just go by games or PA, you have to factor OBP somehow. Bengie Molina becomes even more impressively bad when you realize that he accumulated all that negative value against a .307 OBP.

 

So, UBR/TB? There's almost certainly a more sophisticated and accurate way to do it, but that might be a good shorthand.

I was surprised to see Aramis so high. That has to be laziness more than anything else.

 

Yeah, he's the only one on the list that's even a tad bit surprising to see. Well, him and speedster Cap Anson.

Konerko also can't pitch worth a damn.

Yeah, he's the only one on the list that's even a tad bit surprising to see. Well, him and speedster Cap Anson.

 

How is Cap Anson even on this list?

How is Cap Anson even on this list?

 

So weird that he's on there. The only player not from the 90s on the entire list, and he has 273 career SBs, so he wasn't some slow poke.

So weird that he's on there. The only player not from the 90s on the entire list, and he has 273 career SBs, so he wasn't some slow poke.

 

Right. For one, I figured this was some kind of metric that only applies to modern players because it might require data that wasn't recorded a long time ago.

 

Secondly, ain't no way there weren't more slow guys 100+ years ago when players were far less athletic and smoked like chimneys.

I wonder at what point in his career Konerko said to himself "f***it, I am slow. No more busting ass to first"

I wonder at what point in his career Konerko said to himself "f***it, I am slow. No more busting ass to first"

 

Sometime in 1999

I wonder at what point in his career Konerko said to himself "f***it, I am slow. No more busting ass to first"

Doesn't he have a congenital hip issue?

I actually think it's a very valid question - is Konerko the worst baserunner of all time or just one of the worst? Well, he's the worst.

I think there is a difference between foot speed and baserunning. Yes, he is inherently slow and that means he will clog the bases, however, does that mean he gets bad reads / jumps, etc? No, no necessary correlation there. These stats are pretty much completely worthless and obvious.

Frank Thomas and Paul Konerko had played in the same amount of career games as of the posting of this.

I think there is a difference between foot speed and baserunning. Yes, he is inherently slow and that means he will clog the bases, however, does that mean he gets bad reads / jumps, etc? No, no necessary correlation there. These stats are pretty much completely worthless and obvious.

 

I disagree strongly. Yes, we didn't need the metric to tell us that Konerko was slow, but we DO need the metric to help us quantify just how much his slowness hurts the team. Even if you don't believe in the context neutral run value, you at least now have a common denominator and can say "player X is substantially worse on the basepaths than player Y."

 

As for being able to break it down to speed vs. reads and jumps: no, you can't separate the two with these metrics, but you also capture both of them combined. If a guy's speed "plays up" due to instincts, this metric will show it.