And it was bad to start with.

 

Considering Jackson was their only good OFer, yeah.

It's not that Price isn't worth $20M. He's probably going to give some surplus value, even at that number. But...not much. If any. As we all went through in the Danks thread, we have to convince someone that not only is the player worth the contract, but also all of the value of the players they give you for the privilege of paying the guy.

 

In the past three years, Smyly has earned less than $1.5M and has been worth $24.5M per FG. Big surplus value. So if he gets no better and is used no more frequently (both unlikely IMO) he's easily going to be surpass the surplus value of Price. Add in Franklin, who is extremely talented and played a season of big league ball last year at age 22 in which he was basically a league average bat, and you have the possibility of yet another highly valuable player making no money.

 

While a good prospect, Adames is a longshot to pay off in MLB but you nonetheless are granted that chance with a big talent and zero risk.

 

Meanwhile, if TB kept Price at $20M and didn't increase their overall payroll next year, he'd earn 29% of the team's payroll.

 

The salary is more palatable for Detroit and a few other teams that can manage it (Boston in another year would be an obvious suitor), but you're faced with either losing him in 1.3 seasons or paying him even more annually on a free agent contract which has a 100% chance of being bad - the question is just how bad. They could potentially be without Scherzer, Price, or Smyly in 2016 and have to pick up the pieces with an overpaid and regressing Verlander and Anibal Sanchez, who will make $17M and who knows what he'll be like in two seasons. Porcello is a FA at that point, too. DET has $100M committed to the 2016 squad without Porcello, Price, Scherzer, VMart, a catcher, a single outfielder, or reliever of note signed to a contract.

 

It's not always about surplus cost calculations and stuff and it clearly isn't here -- they want a World Series, which is worth whatever losses they incur along the way. The problem is that a World Series is impossible to guarantee and they further weakened an awful defense and awful baserunning team to make this improvement. Due to the loss of Smyly, they couldn't capitalize on the acquisition by strengthening their bullpen or hedging their bet in case of injury, either.

Helluva trade deadline.

The Tigers spend spend and spend with zero rings to show for it.

This trade was the ultimate "Kenny Williams" deal. Trade tomorrow for today, and next year be damned.

Mariners in Cleveland. Jackson could pull a Joel Youngblood.

The Tigers spend spend and spend with zero rings to show for it.

Can't blame them for trying.

Mariners in Cleveland. Jackson could pull a Joel Youngblood.

I hope he gets there in time. That would be awesome.

Jonah Keri ‏@jonahkeri 1m

 

AMAZING RT @JaneLee Re: Price, Beane "had a feeling it was going to happen." Dombrowski texted, "You have 1 minute to acquire Chris Sale"

LOL. Price @ 20M is just fine. It isn't like it is 20M for 5 years. This is so laughable how stupid some of this statisticians have gotten. I almost wish Kenny was back in charge the way some teams have started to completely overvalue prospects, etc.

100% agree with this. Some people act like it's surplus value that wins championships, which is beyond ridiculous. Look at it this way, the Tigers just landed an ace who is worth 3.9 WAR for two guys worth a combined 2.3 WAR, or in other words, they have added a player who has been 70% more productive than the guys they gave up.

 

However, the real value here is that they now have another dominant starter for the playoffs. Why people constantly ignore the value that aces have in the playoffs is beyond me, but because those starts don't factor into the player's WAR, it's as if that value doesn't exist. On a one year deal, the Yankees would probably give David Price close to $40M. The standard WAR = $5/6M in free agency doesn't work with legit aces on short term deals. Teams would be lining up at the door if David Price said he'd be willing to take a one year deal.

 

And on top of 1 1/3 seasons of a legit ace, the Tigers will also most likely get a compensation pick if they won't retain. Not sure what I'm missing here, but this is an incredible deal for Detroit regardless of who won the surplus battle.

That is fantastic.

The Tigers spend spend and spend with zero rings to show for it.

 

It's funny how baseball works. The Tigers have easily been the better franchise over the past 10 years, but the White Sox have the ring.

This trade was the ultimate "Kenny Williams" deal. Trade tomorrow for today, and next year be damned.

 

When your owner is close to dying, and your star hitter is getting fatter & slower by the hour, and your best pitcher is about leave via free agency, I'd say it's the right move to make.

And it was bad to start with.

 

They also are bad at fundamentals.

 

Verlander is arguably the 5th best pitcher on that roster right now, but he's going to be pushed ahead of Porcello in the playoffs because of "experience."

 

So you have $20 million or whatever going to Tampa (which is huge for a financially-strapped organization with cash flow issues), Franklin and a cost-controlled Smyly, along with a prospect.

 

 

The Tigers have a huge issue trying to patrol that canyon known as CF there in Comerica with JD Martinez and Hunter on the corners. That's just a disaster waiting to happen.

 

The Tigers are also basically stuck with nothing in return for their move for Iglesias last year, since they seem to like Suarez more...and there's nowhere for Iglesias with Castellanos and Kinsler on that infield in 2015.

 

There were two huge risks taken yesterday. Dombrowski by trading Jackson, and Beane took a surprising risk of his own trading his clean-up guy, that's never happened with a contending or division-leading team so late in the season. OTOH, Gomes/Fuld could easily put up similar numbers in a platoon to what Cespedes was providing...and they can also move around some other guys like Moss, Jason and Vogt to get the best offensive match-ups depending on the opposing pitcher.

 

It will be interesting to see if Verlander's pride gets in the way of the Tigers' post-season hopes. You know he's not going to remove himself from a playoff starting assignment for Porcello.

Edited August 1, 201411 yr by caulfield12