http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-2015-fr...gent-landmines/

 

2. Victor Martinez, Designated Hitter

 

Crowd: 3 years, $45 million

Dave: 4 years, $64 million

 

As with Cruz, the bet on Martinez is that a mid-30s career year for a bat only player is real, but this time, the gap in between the track record and 2014 performance is even more extreme. Martinez hit more homers last year than he did in the previous two seasons combined, and he’s only an elite hitter if he’s driving the ball with regularity. Paying big money to Martinez is essentially a bet on his power, but he has 6,000 career plate appearances with an ISO of .168; his 2014 power surge just doesn’t fit with the rest of his career.

 

The extreme contact skills put a fairly high floor in place, and Martinez is unlikely to be useless going forward, but if the power regresses back to 15-20 homers per year, he’s a good-not-great hitter who doesn’t do anything else of value. And we can’t ignore that he’s one of the game’s very worst baserunners, so he turns times on base into runs at a very low rate, making him overrated even by something as simple as on base percentage. At $10-$15 million per year for a couple of years, Martinez would likely be worth investing in, but he’s going to push towards $20 million per year for four years and cost the signing team a draft pick.

 

The cost is just too high for a bet that, after a 10 year big league career, Martinez finally figured out how to hit for power.

 

Ken Rosenthal ‏@Ken_Rosenthal 44s44 seconds ago

 

Sources: #Tigers close to re-signing Victor Martinez to four-year deal.

Ken Rosenthal

Sources: #Tigers close to re-signing Victor Martinez to four-year deal.

https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/532642930075648000

Ken Rosenthal

Sources: #Tigers close to re-signing Victor Martinez to four-year deal.

https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/532642930075648000

Didn't see that coming this early.

Didn't see that coming this early.

To tell you the truth, I was kind of shocked the Tigers let it get this far.

Sounds like the Tigers are still "all-in". Wonder if they try hard to keep Scherzer.

To tell you the truth, I was kind of shocked the Tigers let it get this far.

Interesting. Once it actually got out of their exclusive negotiating window, I figured he'd be out there for a while. I was obviously wrong.

This is doubly awesome. White Sox evade another albatross deal and more bad money for the Tigers ensuring their window not only shuts, but slams shut.

4 years? I am happy to watch the deal blow up in their face. I am hoping it's for $20 mil per as well.

Lets get Pablo

Interested to see if the involvement of the White Sox got that asking price up high. If so, kudos to Hahn.

Bruce Levine ‏@MLBBruceLevine 1m1 minute ago

 

White Sox never in the late bidding for Victor Martinez . Early interest was real .

Interesting. Once it actually got out of their exclusive negotiating window, I figured he'd be out there for a while. I was obviously wrong.

I thought when they let him become a free agent, they were going to pass on a 4 year deal, because you knew someone would give it to him. If they really wanted him back, and it appears that was no lie, why take the chance?

This is doubly awesome. White Sox evade another albatross deal and more bad money for the Tigers ensuring their window not only shuts, but slams shut.

The sox really need a big bat behind abreu and he would have been awesome to have but yea, with the years he wanted at 36 it wasn't going to happen. Seems most likely that panda will resign with SF too so I wonder who that big bat will be for us. I don't want it to be a marginal one ala lind, butler etc

White Sox never in the late bidding for Victor Martinez . Early interest was real .

https://twitter.com/670TheScore/status/532645636806803458

The sox really need a big bat behind abreu and he would have been awesome to have but yea, with the years he wanted at 36 it wasn't going to happen. Seems most likely that panda will resign with SF too so I wonder who that big bat will be for us. I don't want it to be a marginal one ala lind, butler etc

 

I can see them quietly going after Melky Cabrera

Joel Sherman ‏@Joelsherman1 1m1 minute ago

 

Can confirm @Ken_Rosenthal report #Tigers have re-signed Victor Martinez to a 4-yr contract

It would push them over 200 million.

 

Wherever Illitch goes when he dies, he can't take the money with him.

Womp womp....As a guy who thinks he'll still be good for for a few more years I don't really find joy in the Tigers signing him.

Tigers better hope cabrera stays healthy during the next 4 yrs otherwise they have 2 dhs

I can see them quietly going after Melky Cabrera

I know since he was previously a ped user some people don't want him but if that's in the past I'm all for getting him. Meaning the cardinals have peralta and the Orioles Cruz, etc and no one cares anymore.

Bring me Yasmani Tomas and Chase Headley. Cabrera and Martin aren't bad options either. If all else fails, I think we end up with low cost projects like Rasmus and acquire another large contract via trade.

Womp womp....As a guy who thinks he'll still be good for for a few more years I don't really find joy in the Tigers signing him.

Me too , I don't think the sox wanted to risk it but he's just a great natural hitter right now. Ortiz is 3 years older and still producing and I see vmart as still producing during at least 3 years more too

Hopefully it is a big number, and fully guaranteed.

This is over now, Martinez has re-signed with Detroit.