What about 5/120?

 

That's still Jon Lester money, when he's no Jon Lester. The whole point of giving him an extension is to make it team-friendly, which 5/120 is not. I'd rather just spend a little more money and sign a #1 like Price or Cueto.

I'd guess 5/140ish with an option if I was a betting man.

That is crazy. The market will be flooded with pitchers next offseason if no one extends before that. Price, Zimmerman, Cueto, Latos, Fister.... He won't command anywhere near that on the open market.

If you pay Samardzija something like that, Jerry better be ready to open up the vault for Sale(should he stay healthy) when it comes time.

That is crazy. The market will be flooded with pitchers next offseason if no one extends before that. Price, Zimmerman, Cueto, Latos, Fister.... He won't command anywhere near that on the open market.

 

 

The market next year isn't really THAT amazing.

 

It might change a bit, if Greinke becomes available. Price is likely to stay with the Tigers (at least better than a 50% chance).

 

That leaves Zimmerman and Cueto as the two premium options, which is essentially the same as Scherzer/Lester/Shields...once again, unless Greinke is also on the market and all four of those top guys are free to sign anywhere in the offseason.

 

If you include Samardzija as well, sure, it's better...but there are still 20 teams chasing the same 3-5 pitchers. Latos and Fister will be lucky enough to gather the "table scraps" remaining, ala Shields this year.

Edited February 20, 201511 yr by caulfield12

The market next year isn't really THAT amazing.

 

It might change a bit, if Greinke becomes available. Price is likely to stay with the Tigers (at least better than a 50% chance).

 

That leaves Zimmerman and Cueto as the two premium options, which is essentially the same as Scherzer/Lester/Shields...once again, unless Greinke is also on the market and all four of those top guys are free to sign anywhere in the offseason.

 

If you include Samardzija as well, sure, it's better...but there are still 20 teams chasing the same 3-5 pitchers. Latos and Fister will be lucky enough to gather the "table scraps" remaining, ala Shields this year.

Stop with your made up percentages. The fact is there are 5 or 6 guys that are looking for 9 figure contracts. There are a limited amount of teams that will give out those contracts. Hammels ends up in Boston, they may not be looking to spend, as their "sabermetric" payroll is about $200 million. Unless his ERA is under 2.00 and he wins the Cy Young, there is zero chance Samardzija gets anywhere near $28 million a year for 5 years. No chance.

$28 million a year for Samardzija would be an absolutely horrendous contract. All giant contracts have the potential to be absolute busts, but if Samardzija is even a 3 WAR pitcher per year in that contract, it's a massive overpay. He would have to be an absolute ace.

 

Max Scherzer technically got 7/$210, but based on the deferred money, MLB is valuing its present day value at 7/$190 (or so). That's $27 million per year for a guy who's put up 4.5 WAR, 6.4 WAR, and 5.6 WAR seasons. He also has Boras as his agent, who has a tendency to extract more value out of teams as well.

 

If he got 5/$120, it'd be a little better, but that still seems too rich. Hell, if he wants $140 million, give it to him over 6 years. At least that spreads the cost out a bit.

I don't know why we're so eager to pay the dude before he even pitches. He's had one season as a true front-end starter, let's let him have another before we pay him like it's a foregone conclusion that he will. He isn't going to give us a discount to dodge free agency, which means we're going to pay him free agency money, which means we might as well wait and see.

I think the most I would be willing to go on Samardzija (unless he truly becomes an ace this year) would be around 5/100. I don't think that would get it done. If he leaves in free agency that would still leave us with Sale, Quintana and Rodon as a very solid front 3. Then maybe go and try to sign a mid level guy to a one or two year deal and then by 2016-2017 hopefully 2 of Danish, Montas and Adams will be ready.

Jose Quintana, who is 4 years younger, has twice as many at least 3 WAR seasons.

I think the most I would be willing to go on Samardzija (unless he truly becomes an ace this year) would be around 5/100. I don't think that would get it done. If he leaves in free agency that would still leave us with Sale, Quintana and Rodon as a very solid front 3. Then maybe go and try to sign a mid level guy to a one or two year deal and then by 2016-2017 hopefully 2 of Danish, Montas and Adams will be ready.

 

 

That's where guys like Latos and Fister would make sense...just like Anibal Sanchez and Fister did for the Tigers to fit in as 4th starters and provide additional depth.

 

They'd be affordable, because of that top 3.

 

The problem right now is the Danks contract also being on the books.

 

Adams' earliest arrival date is probably late 2016/early 2017.

 

 

As with the Tanaka interest, the White Sox don't see like the type of team to play it in-between, which is what Samardjiza is....being paid as an ace or close to an ace with the numbers being bandied about here, well over $100 million. Danks was the only time they were willing to go long-term and it bit them in the butt, so they're going to have to be 100% convinced Shark is the guy going forward that's worth that type of investment with Noesi/Beck/Johnson/Montas/Danish/Adams all in the pipeline.

 

Personally, I'd rather invest that money into solving the catching situation once and for all.

 

 

I'd guess 5/140ish with an option if I was a betting man.

 

That is free agent money. No point in signing that deal. At that point your best hope is to let him walk out and hope that he has the Shields experience of waiting too long to sign.

That is free agent money. No point in signing that deal. At that point your best hope is to let him walk out and hope that he has the Shields experience of waiting too long to sign.

I know they have offered him less, but I believe this is the target his people are aiming at.

I know they have offered him less, but I believe this is the target his people are aiming at.

 

I am sure they are. I am speaking from the White Sox point of view.

I know they have offered him less, but I believe this is the target his people are aiming at.

Well, that's discouraging. I don't see the Sox offering him that much, nor would I want them to. $28MM a year would be too much.

$140 MM over 5 is crazy money. I could stomach 5, $120, but anything over 25 million is no thanks. Take the comp pick and go after Fister.

I thought 7/140 before he signed his 2015 contract, so 6/130 seems about right.

 

Hopefully they can get him for 5 years though.

Edited February 20, 201511 yr by flavum

The only way Shark is getting 5/$140M in free agency is if he's a Cy Young caliber pitcher this year. Very dissapointing to find out he's completely delusional about his own self worth. No way we extend him anytime soon if he's looking for $28M a year.

If Samardzija really is seeking 5/140 then I wish him well in FA. Not in the least bit interested for that price and another reason why I am not high on the trade in the first place.

 

Hopefully Montas continues his progress and can slide into Samardzija's rotation spot after the 2015 season.

If Samardzija really is seeking 5/140 then I wish him well in FA. Not in the least bit interested for that price and another reason why I am not high on the trade in the first place.

 

Hopefully Montas continues his progress and can slide into Samardzija's rotation spot after the 2015 season.

Just to keep harping on this point because why not...Montas pitched 81 innings last year. The most he's ever pitched is 111 in 2013. A minor league season taking him up to 130 innings is a big jump on his arm this year.

 

I know the White Sox push people aggressively, but there's such a thing as overaggressive.

I started to think about this over the weekend and I wanted to get everyones opinion here. How do you want the Sox to proceed with the Samardzija extension? Part of me would like them to get him locked up and have a rock solid 1-4 for the next 4-5 years. On the other hand, Rodon will be a full-time figure in the rotation next year and Danish and Montas have the chance to maybe break as well, so maybe invest that money elsewhere and get the comp pick?

 

 

Look what you have done by thinking!! You have everyone riled up. Quit it! Anyway I don't see the Shark getting anything over $16-$18M for 4 years. from the Sox. Look at our history with John Danks. I suppose you might se a contract with a rising price tag since Danks comes off the books in what two years? But, we will need extra money to pay Sale at some point.

Edited February 20, 201511 yr by elrockinMT

Just to keep harping on this point because why not...Montas pitched 81 innings last year. The most he's ever pitched is 111 in 2013. A minor league season taking him up to 130 innings is a big jump on his arm this year.

 

I know the White Sox push people aggressively, but there's such a thing as overaggressive.

No doubt that's a valid point and one of the reasons why I'm hoping the Sox keep Rodon in Charlotte as a starter instead of using him as a reliever for the mlb roster. Build that arm/shoulder endurance.

 

If the Sox were to get 130 IP from Montas in 2015, he could very well be ready for 160-175IP in 2016 which shouldn't be too aggressive as long as hes healthy.

 

As for Samardzija, he's gone after 2015. I just cannot see the Sox going 5+ years and 25M+ per year for a pitcher.

 

 

 

Look what you have done by thinking!! You have everyone riled up. Quit it! Anyway I don't see the Shark getting anything over $16-$18M for 4 years. from the Sox. Look at our history with John Danks. I suppose you might se a contract with a rising price tag since Danks comes off the books in what two years? But, we will need extra money to pay Sale at some point.

 

He turned down a bigger deal from teh Cubs.

Just to keep harping on this point because why not...Montas pitched 81 innings last year. The most he's ever pitched is 111 in 2013. A minor league season taking him up to 130 innings is a big jump on his arm this year.

 

I know the White Sox push people aggressively, but there's such a thing as overaggressive.

 

Long term, I see Montas being the bullpen piece and Danish being the starter. If both, even end up being productive major league pieces, that's a huge win for the Sox. I just think that's what both of them are best suited for IMO.

I know they have offered him less, but I believe this is the target his people are aiming at.

 

Is this why a month ago you told us that you thought an extension was imminent? People thought he would have signed that lower deal they offered him?

He turned down a bigger deal from teh Cubs.

 

 

But who wants to play for the scrubs? So OK what is fair considering we have Sale signed at a team dream deal IMO? $20 to $22M?