Could the Sox get proper value in trading Sale?

[Kyyle23]

Because I'm sure you know every single team's top 30 prospects and have watched all their videos, lmao. Probably you're going to be following in the footsteps of Kevin Goldstein and Keith Law with your erudition.

 

Maybe we should just have the moderating team and the minor league "reporters" be the only ones at the site "eligible" to make comments on any player.

 

That would be a lot more fun for us to just sit back and learn from the experts.

 

Maybe we shouldnt pull everything out of our asses in order to comment and consider ourselves erudited?

[Dick Allen]

You just made the case we've already made a terrible trade for Jeff Samardzija...and it will only get worse in the coming years.

 

 

At any rate, Boston isn't going to trade either Betts or Bogaerts.

No I didn't. We all know Josh Phegley can't keep this up. And the great Marcus Semien is fading fast while still "holding his own" at SS with only 22 errors.

[caulfield12]

No I didn't. We all know Josh Phegley can't keep this up. And the great Marcus Semien is fading fast while still "holding his own" at SS with only 22 errors.

 

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/batting/_/pos.../qualified/true

 

You're only off by one full point in your WAR numbers on Betts.

 

Not a big deal. Statistics.

[Dick Allen]

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/batting/_/pos.../qualified/true

 

You're only off by one full point in your WAR numbers on Betts.

 

Not a big deal. Statistics.

Check fangraphs. Then pop off.

Also, 1.8 vs. 1.0 isn't one full point.

Edited June 15, 2015 by Dick Allen

[caulfield12]

Maybe we shouldnt pull everything out of our asses in order to comment and consider ourselves erudited?

 

 

Then you tell me....who are the experts at this site that have insight into EXACTLY which players other teams are making available in a potential Chris Sale or Jose Quintana trade?

 

By definition, nobody in here works for a professional baseball team, so, everything here is going to be 100% speculation (or intentional leaking) and primarily "researched" by going through "collection" sites like mlbtraderumors.

 

When guys like Jayson Stark, Gammons, Ken Rosenthal, Phil Rogers or Keith Law write, they're way off at least 50-75% of the time. That's probably still more successful than the local Chicago media.

Edited June 15, 2015 by caulfield12

[BlackSox13]

And who's going to pay you for 2014 Abreu, one of the top 3-5 hitters in baseball?

 

Unless you have a reason to believe he's going to be "this version" permanently, it's better to deal Quintana (or Sale).

Please, Abreu carries plenty of value Caulfield and you know this.

 

It's easy to say trade Sale or Q but what are their values?

 

 

[Kyyle23]

Then you tell me....who are the experts at this site that have insight into EXACTLY which players other teams are making available in a potential Chris Sale or Jose Quintana trade?

 

By definition, nobody in here works for a professional baseball team, so, everything here is going to be 100% speculation (or intentional leaking) and primarily "researched" by going through "collection" sites like mlbtraderumors.

 

When guys like Jayson Stark, Gammons, Ken Rosenthal, Phil Rogers or Keith Law write, they're way off at least 50-75% of the time. That's probably still more successful than the local Chicago media.

 

Please tell me who are studs. This team needs moar Jackie Bradley

 

How come everytime I crack a joke when you make s*** up, you defer to "OMG MAYBE THE MODS SHOULD TELL US WHAT WE ARE ALLOWED TO TALK ABOUT BECAUSE THEY ARE THE EXPERTS"? lol

[caulfield12]

Check fangraphs. Then pop off.

Also, 1.8 vs. 1.0 isn't one full point.

 

 

So obviously there's a huge statistical formula differentiation from dWAR, fWAR and whatever ESPN is using.

 

Tell me in your own words why Fangraphs has a better number....something besides, "but it's from Fangraphs so it must be right."

 

Because obviously if one system or another's proven to be BETTER and more accurate, then everyone would have a vested interested in adopting or improving it.

 

It has already happened with fielding ratings going from UZR to Range Factor to Net Fielding Wins to Defensive Runs Saved in the span of less than 5 years.

 

 

[caulfield12]

Please, Abreu carries plenty of value Caulfield and you know this.

 

It's easy to say trade Sale or Q but what are their values?

 

 

Of course, he has plenty of value. But "our" version of plenty might not be another team's.

 

At the end of 2014, his value was certainly higher than it is now...same with Eaton, Quintana, Samardzija and Abreu.

 

The question is how much the White Sox are willing to "discount" from that established offseason rate.

 

If it's 50 cents on the dollar, that's not going to help much for the future...it will just end up causing rebuilding to take that much longer.

Edited June 15, 2015 by caulfield12

[southsider2k5]

They didn't have the money to. That's only part of the problem, they spent about all they could and the end result was they had to just go with several positions, guys like Gillaspie and Flowers with no major upgrades. And then on top of that, they did a terrible job with the people they picked (Melky, Samardzija).

 

If they didn't have the money to pull together a legit competitive roster, that makes spending everything you had and trading away cost-controlled players for soon-to-be FA's a set of very large mistakes.

 

They didn't have enough money to build a full roster through FA but decided to dump everything into winning now anyway. That's a complete lack of patience to me.

 

Hooray for appeasing the fan base!

[OmarComing25]

The return would have to be 4 top 50 prospects minimum, with two of those in the top 20. Even then I'd hate it. Please no.

[caulfield12]

Please tell me who are studs. This team needs moar Jackie Bradley

 

How come everytime I crack a joke when you make s*** up, you defer to "OMG MAYBE THE MODS SHOULD TELL US WHAT WE ARE ALLOWED TO TALK ABOUT BECAUSE THEY ARE THE EXPERTS"? lol

 

 

If you comb through pages and pages of "draft talk," it seems a lot of stuff was just conjecture, was it not?

 

By definition, if people weren't making stuff up or theorizing or hypothesizing, then they possessed inside information.

 

 

And sure, Lorenzo Cain 2-3 seasons ago didn't look all that different from Jackie Bradley, Jr. today, depending on which scout you talked to.

[Y2Jimmy0]

So obviously there's a huge statistical formula differentiation from dWAR, fWAR and whatever ESPN is using.

 

Tell me in your own words why Fangraphs has a better number....something besides, "but it's from Fangraphs so it must be right."

 

Because obviously if one system or another's proven to be BETTER and more accurate, then everyone would have a vested interested in adopting or improving it.

 

It has already happened with fielding ratings going from UZR to Range Factor to Net Fielding Wins to Defensive Runs Saved in the span of less than 5 years.

 

 

Well fWAR is better because it tells what should have happened rather than what actually happened.

[caulfield12]

Hooray for appeasing the fan base!

 

 

Yay, a net increase of 1,750 per game that will all be erased this coming off-season anyway.

[southsider2k5]

Great post. They won't get equal value for either guy. How do they get better position players? I don't know. Trading Q or Sale wouldn't be how I go about doing it though.

 

Unless you were talking about Mike Trout or Gio Stanton, you aren't. The problem is both of those guys already have ridiculous extensions in place, which make the trade not work anyway.

[southsider2k5]

The return would have to be 4 top 50 prospects minimum, with two of those in the top 20. Even then I'd hate it. Please no.

 

Most importantly the meatball fans would declare WHITE FLAG 2, and this franchise would be dead for a decade.

[Dick Allen]

So obviously there's a huge statistical formula differentiation from dWAR, fWAR and whatever ESPN is using.

 

Tell me in your own words why Fangraphs has a better number....something besides, "but it's from Fangraphs so it must be right."

 

Because obviously if one system or another's proven to be BETTER and more accurate, then everyone would have a vested interested in adopting or improving it.

 

It has already happened with fielding ratings going from UZR to Range Factor to Net Fielding Wins to Defensive Runs Saved in the span of less than 5 years.

You are the one using ESPN. So maybe we should know why those are gospel to you and not fangraphs. The fWAR for whatever reason, is considered by the saber community more accurate. So why don't you tell us in your own words why it is not. The fact is, these numbers are very, very different, especially when you consider we aren't even halfway done with the season. So, IMO, there probably is some inaccuracy in both, especially when they are giving you major credit for defense. Those numbers have always been out of whack, and it is well documented. I read an article a couple of years ago which basically stated in a few years people will laugh at how defense was being valued.

[caulfield12]

Well fWAR is better because it tells what should have happened rather than what actually happened.

 

 

And that's where you will find a bunch of experts who will say, "who cares what SHOULD have happened...because it didn't."

 

We have an equal duty to explain reality...because it's nearly impossible to use defensive ratings to project accurately what SHOULD happen any more than an algorithm can predict an event like 9/11 or the credit default swaps throwing the stock market completely out of whack. It's getting better and better, but it's not like it's the be all, end all when it comes to assessment.

 

Living in that hypothetical universe, the 1994 White Sox SHOULD have won the World Series, and advanced to the playoffs in 2003, 2006, 2010 and 2012.

 

It's why adding up the WAR of individual players doesn't usually come close to telling you which teams are the best, or will perform the best in the post-season. It's just one snapshot. It did, on the other hand, inform us quite early that the off-season changes made weren't going to make this team a playoff contender.

Edited June 15, 2015 by caulfield12

[caulfield12]

Most importantly the meatball fans would declare WHITE FLAG 2, and this franchise would be dead for a decade.

 

 

This is where Balta says, but this franchise HAS BEEN DEAD for nearly a decade.

 

Even if it's 1984-1987 bad, and that's actually next to impossible with the stadium lease agreement with the state, the overall profitability of the team will still continue to climb quite nicely whether attendance was/is 800,000 or 1,800,000.

 

As it stands right now, we saw one of the ten highest percentage-wise season ticket growth rates this offseason and we're still 27th in attendance.

 

How can we go much lower?

 

We will pass Miami, Tampa Bay and Cleveland?

 

 

[BlackSox13]

Of course, he has plenty of value. But "our" version of plenty might not be another team's.

 

At the end of 2014, his value was certainly higher than it is now...same with Eaton, Quintana, Samardzija and Abreu.

 

The question is how much the White Sox are willing to "discount" from that established offseason rate.

 

If it's 50 cents on the dollar, that's not going to help much for the future...it will just end up causing rebuilding to take that much longer.

The answer is none. You do not discount the likes of Abreu, Sale and Q. You are coming from a perspective of desperation if you are willing to discount any of those three to trade them.

 

Other teams would be desperate to obtain them and not the other way around.

 

While the Sox season does not look good, no desperation move(s) will fix the teams problems in 2015. Just accept it.

 

Talk about panic mode.

[caulfield12]

The answer is none. You do not discount the likes of Abreu, Sale and Q. You are coming from a perspective of desperation if you are willing to discount any of those three to trade them.

 

Other teams would be desperate to obtain them and not the other way around.

 

While the Sox season does not look good, no desperation move(s) will fix the teams problems in 2015. Just accept it.

 

Talk about panic mode.

 

 

I'm not even thinking about 2015...at least not after this next week of play.

 

It's already onto planning for 2016.

 

Nothing to panic about anymore....they essentially have the worst offense and defense in baseball, and unless they use surpluses in pitching (Samardzija/Quintana/Putnam/Duke/Petricka) to improve that standing, there's simply no way they're going to make the playoffs in 2016 other than "hoping and praying."

[BlackSox13]

I'm not even thinking about 2015...at least not after this next week of play.

 

It's already onto planning for 2016.

 

Nothing to panic about anymore....they essentially have the worst offense and defense in baseball, and unless they use surpluses in pitching (Samardzija/Quintana/Putnam/Duke/Petricka) to improve that standing, there's simply no way they're going to make the playoffs in 2016 other than "hoping and praying."

Well, we found some common ground here. Agree with everything you say here.

 

Again, I'm not against trading any player. Just do not know how to go about assessing Sale and Q values which is why I stay away from throwing proposals out there.

 

You are right though. There is a big gap between the minor league talent and the majors with most of the talent at AA and below. That talent likely needs the 2016 season for further development so I'm not counting on the likes of Montas, Danish, Anderson or Fulmer for 2016 which means what we have at Charlotte is what we have to work with.

 

Which leads to trade proposals to infuse talent into that gap. I really do get where you're coming from Caulfield and I admit that I've become enamored with the idea of a future rotation of Sale, Q, Rodon and eventually Fulmer.

 

I'm sitting here trying to think what I would want in a return for Sale and I dont know what team or what players to begin with. Sale's value is unprecedented. I don't know if I would be asking for too much or likely not enough.

 

 

 

 

[harfman77]

There is always a deal to be made. I think any deal for Sale revolves around major league or major league ready players. The Red Sox could put together an attractive package that would fill in quite a few gaps. The Dodgers are maybe the only other team that could put something reasonable together.

[southsider2k5]

There is always a deal to be made. I think any deal for Sale revolves around major league or major league ready players. The Red Sox could put together an attractive package that would fill in quite a few gaps. The Dodgers are maybe the only other team that could put something reasonable together.

 

But if you listen to Red Sox fans, Chris Sale is already a beantowner...

[daggins]

If the Rangers wanted to buy they could put together a nice package based around Gallo.