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KnightsOnMintSt

Where do they start the season?

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Thought it would be good to generate some talk here in the middle of the off-season. Where do we think some of our top prospects will start the year?

 

Jimenez- 

Cease-

Robert-

Madrigal-

Dunning- 

Rutherford-

Collins-

Basabe-

Hansen- 

Adolfo-

Walker- 

Burger-

Gonzalez-

Sheets-

 

I'll say...

Jimenez- Chicago

Cease- Charlotte

Robert- Winston-Salem

Madrigal- Birmingham

Dunning- Birmingham

Rutherford- Birmingham

Collins- Charlotte

Basabe- Charlotte

Hansen- Birmingham

Adolfo- Birmingham

Walker- Winston-Salem

Burger- Winston-Salem

Gonzalez- Birmingham

Sheets- Birmingham

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Jimenez-  In Charlotte until exactly April 16

Cease- Charlotte

Robert- WS

Madrigal- WS

Dunning- I could see a rehab stint startoff all the way down at WS? But BHam soon.

Rutherford- BHAM

Collins- CHA

Basabe- BHam

Hansen- BHam

Adolfo- DL

Walker- Kanny 

Burger- DL

Gonzalez- BHam

Sheets- BHam

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35 minutes ago, KnightsOnMintSt said:

Thought it would be good to generate some talk here in the middle of the off-season. Where do we think some of our top prospects will start the year?

 

Jimenez-  Charlotte, for what 10 days?  Then Chicago

Cease- Charlotte

Robert- Birmingham, I think he forces the issue, thought I bet it is more likely that he ends up in WS at least for a short while.  

Madrigal- WS, until June.  

Dunning- Birmingham, for a few starts, dominates, then Charlotte

Rutherford- Birmingham

Collins- Charlotte

Basabe- I think he will be pushed to Charlotte.  Though Birmingham is an option.

Hansen- Ugh.  Birmingham.  I hope he shows command in spring training and goes to Birmingham.

Adolfo- Birmingham.

Walker- Kanny

Burger-  Probably Arizona, then Kanny, and quickly to WS.

Gonzalez- Birmingham

Sheets- Birmingham

 

 

Honestly not sure how they work out the logistics in Birmingham for playing time.  I wouldn't be surprised if either of Adolfo or Robert start at WS, and Basabe starts at Birmingham and they are simultaneously promoted.  Certainly the DH will be used for an extra OFer in Birmingham, and there could be some rotating in CF as well between Gonzalez/Robert/Basabe and maybe even Rutherford.  Call and Booker will factor in as well, though they will likely be in Charlotte.

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1 hour ago, KnightsOnMintSt said:

Jimenez- Chicago

Cease- Charlotte

Robert- Winston-Salem

Madrigal- Birmingham

Dunning- Birmingham

Rutherford- Birmingham

Collins- Charlotte

Basabe- Charlotte

Hansen- Birmingham

Adolfo- Birmingham

Walker- Winston-Salem

Burger- Winston-Salem

Gonzalez- Birmingham

Sheets- Birmingham

I agree with most of this except Jimenez (CHA until April 16th), Hansen (W-S temporarily to work with Zaleski to get his mechanics  and head completely in order before BIR) and Burger (ARI, then KAN for a cup of coffee then W-S).

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Jimenez- Charlotte

Cease- Charlotte

Robert- Winston-Salem

Madrigal- Birmingham

Dunning- Birmingham

Rutherford- Birmingham

Collins- Charlotte

Basabe- Birmingham

Hansen- Birmingham

Adolfo- DL (Birmingham)

Walker- Winston-Salem

Burger- DL (Winston-Salem)

Gonzalez- Birmingham

Sheets- Birmingham

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Jimenez- Charlotte

Cease-Birmingham

Robert-WS

Madrigal-WS

Dunning- Birmingham

Rutherford-Birmingham

Collins-Charlotte

Basabe-Birmingham

Hansen- Birmingham

Adolfo-Birmingham

Walker- WS

Burger-WS

Gonzalez-Birmingham

Sheets-Birmingham

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Jimenez- Charlotte (Until April 16th)

Cease- Charlotte

Robert- Winston- Salem (Spends most of summer in Birmingham though) 

Madrigal- Winston-Salem

Dunning- Birmingham

Rutherford- Birmingham

Collins- Charlotte 

Basabe- Birmingham (Spends most of season in Charlotte)

Hansen- Birmingham 

Adolfo- Birmingham 

Walker- Winston-Salem 

Burger-DL in Winston-Salem 

Gonzalez- Birmingham 

Sheets- Birmingham

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Jimenez- Charlotte (Until April 16th)

Cease- AA to start as only 52 innings there last year.  Also makes it easier to not bring up at end of year for service time if he doesn't start out at AAA.

 Robert- Winston- Salem , to AA when Basabe goes to AAA hopefully.

Madrigal- Winston-Salem

Dunning- Birmingham

Rutherford- Birmingham

Collins- AA if Zavala is in AAA.  AAA if Zavala makes MLB roster.

Basabe- Birmingham (Spends most of season in Charlotte)

Hansen- A+ to start with Zaleski  as previously suggested.  Then AA, hopefully briefly before AAA. 

Adolfo- Birmingham, might have to DH awhile if elbow not ready to cut loose on throws from RF

Walker- Winston-Salem 

Burger-rehab assignments 2-4 weeks at a time until AA 

Gonzalez- Birmingham 

Sheets- Birmingham

 
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Until I can get my Big Board onto Google Docs, here we go...

Cease- Charlotte

Robert- Winston-Salem

Madrigal- Winston-Salem

Dunning- Birmingham

Rutherford- Birmginham

Collins- Birmingham

Basabe- Charlotte (my Hot Take - on 40, played AFL, someone needs to go above AA for PT)

Hansen- Winston-Salem

Adolfo- Disabled, then Birmingham

Walker- Winston-Salem

Burger- Disabled to 6/1, then Winston-Salem

Gonzalez- Birmingham

Sheets- Birmingham

 

Just my guess, but I think Eloy moves up to Chicago around 5/1, at which time Adolfo joins BHAM and whomever of Call or Fisher seems ready to move up will do so. Prbabably Fisher because at this point he's just not important, and he's had a year of AA already.

 

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By the way, looking at the whole board, the major crowding areas appear to be:

--Outfielders around AA

--Starting pitchers around AA too

--Relievers at both A-ball levels

--Kannapolis infield

--Relievers for Charlotte (but this happens literally every year, by design)

 

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I don't understand why (almost) everyone has Collins in Charlotte. Unless you think Zavala is in MLB? No chance they have both Zavala and Collins in Charlotte to open the year IMO. For one thing, they want a 4A scrapper in Charlotte for depth so they don't have to call up a rookie before they are ready, so that's one Charlotte slot gone with Zavala in the other. For another, frankly, Collins didn't earn a promotion yet. His defense, while by some reports improved, is still a ways from ready. But more importantly the guy struck out 30% of the time and hit .234. The biggest difference between AA and AAA pitchers is not talent - it is sophistication. He'd get eaten alive without some improvements. He's quite clearly not ready for a jump.

 

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18 minutes ago, SoxBlanco said:

Where does Bryce Bush start the year, and what does his timeline look like if all goes realistically well?

I am going to guess that he comes to spring training with a chance to open in Kannapolis, but if not Great Falls.

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56 minutes ago, SoxBlanco said:

Where does Bryce Bush start the year, and what does his timeline look like if all goes realistically well?

 

37 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

I am going to guess that he comes to spring training with a chance to open in Kannapolis, but if not Great Falls.

That's pretty much it. I personally am going to guess Great Falls, because A) the Kannapolis infield is already going to be quite crowded with legit prospects, and B) Bush is only 19 and there is no need to rush him up. Obviously things like injuries or other movement of players above him could change that.

 

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2 hours ago, NorthSideSox72 said:

 

That's pretty much it. I personally am going to guess Great Falls, because A) the Kannapolis infield is already going to be quite crowded with legit prospects, and B) Bush is only 19 and there is no need to rush him up. Obviously things like injuries or other movement of players above him could change that.

 

Thanks to you both. Assuming he is legit, does 2022 seem realistic for when he might contribute to the big league club? I do realize he is only 19, and a lot can happen (good or bad) over the next few years. 

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38 minutes ago, SoxBlanco said:

Thanks to you both. Assuming he is legit, does 2022 seem realistic for when he might contribute to the big league club? I do realize he is only 19, and a lot can happen (good or bad) over the next few years. 

I personally have a hard time projecting arrival years for players that young and still rookie ballers. Just so many variables. But if he really is "legit", you figure he does some full seasons and at least one split, which means maybe 2019-2021 in the minors, then 2022 in AAA flirting with MLB. That's if all goes well.

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17 hours ago, NorthSideSox72 said:

I don't understand why (almost) everyone has Collins in Charlotte. Unless you think Zavala is in MLB? No chance they have both Zavala and Collins in Charlotte to open the year IMO. For one thing, they want a 4A scrapper in Charlotte for depth so they don't have to call up a rookie before they are ready, so that's one Charlotte slot gone with Zavala in the other. For another, frankly, Collins didn't earn a promotion yet. His defense, while by some reports improved, is still a ways from ready. But more importantly the guy struck out 30% of the time and hit .234. The biggest difference between AA and AAA pitchers is not talent - it is sophistication. He'd get eaten alive without some improvements. He's quite clearly not ready for a jump.

 

.382 OBP and 130 wRC+ in AA with 15 homers. He'll turn 24 in February. I don't care what his batting average is. The White Sox don't care what his batting average is either so we probably shouldn't. I think it's time for a push here. Lets see what playing the majority of his games in Charlotte's home park does to his power numbers. I'm expecting a huge increase. They have enough roster spots to carry 3 catchers and DH one of them every day. 

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21 minutes ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

.382 OBP and 130 wRC+ in AA with 15 homers. He'll turn 24 in February. I don't care what his batting average is. The White Sox don't care what his batting average is either so we probably shouldn't. I think it's time for a push here. Lets see what playing the majority of his games in Charlotte's home park does to his power numbers. I'm expecting a huge increase. They have enough roster spots to carry 3 catchers and DH one of them every day. 

I disagree with pretty much everything in this post (except the numbers, haha). Average most certainly matters as it's an indicator of bat to ball ability. As is strikeout rate. And I guarantee the Sox care too and are aware of these things. It ultimately may not matter to his value very much what his average ends up being in MLB, but it matters in evaluation. The guy hasn't earned a call-up and will likely struggle even worse against AAA pitching. Also, the idea of having 3 catchers in Charlotte is silliness - it reduces the PT for the two actual prospects, and the 3rd guy as your actual MLB emergency catcher almost never plays and is rusty as hell if you need him. Just doesn't make sense to do that. Then there's the fact that if you DH them a lot, they miss out on defensive work they both need (but especially Collins) in order to be major league catchers.

 

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Fair enough. Hostetler told me point blank at Soxfest that they don't care about his batting average. He was on base at a .382 clip. How many players in Birmingham were out more often than he was? I don't have the time to look. He struck out a ton. He'll always strike out a ton. He gets on base though. A lot. 

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24 minutes ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

Fair enough. Hostetler told me point blank at Soxfest that they don't care about his batting average. He was on base at a .382 clip. How many players in Birmingham were out more often than he was? I don't have the time to look. He struck out a ton. He'll always strike out a ton. He gets on base though. A lot. 

And I do still like Collins as a prospect. But the thing with OBP is, if you can't hit at least a little bit, the walks won't stick around because pitchers are going to force those players to hit after a while. Collins' power will help mitigate that risk, but not enough by itself. That is where AVG comes into play. I think Collins needs gradual development defensively so that his chances of sticking as a catcher remain decent, and also to resolve whatever issue he has with swing and miss. In fact, since he's obviously got a very good eye and is not swinging at a lot of bad pitches, the strikeout rate is even scarier for what it means about his swing and mechanics. So, I want to see him slow-rolled. Start in AA, prove he can hit that pitching a little better, then move up to AAA. That's my take anyway.

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2 hours ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

.382 OBP and 130 wRC+ in AA with 15 homers. He'll turn 24 in February. I don't care what his batting average is. The White Sox don't care what his batting average is either so we probably shouldn't. I think it's time for a push here. Lets see what playing the majority of his games in Charlotte's home park does to his power numbers. I'm expecting a huge increase. They have enough roster spots to carry 3 catchers and DH one of them every day. 

He really sounds like Yoan Moncada without seeing him for a second.  if it isn't in a teacup, he isn't swinging at it.  When he swings, it is at 100%.

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1 hour ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

Fair enough. Hostetler told me point blank at Soxfest that they don't care about his batting average. He was on base at a .382 clip. How many players in Birmingham were out more often than he was? I don't have the time to look. He struck out a ton. He'll always strike out a ton. He gets on base though. A lot. 

2nd highest OBP in the Southern League.

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2 hours ago, NorthSideSox72 said:

I disagree with pretty much everything in this post (except the numbers, haha). Average most certainly matters as it's an indicator of bat to ball ability. As is strikeout rate. And I guarantee the Sox care too and are aware of these things. It ultimately may not matter to his value very much what his average ends up being in MLB, but it matters in evaluation. The guy hasn't earned a call-up and will likely struggle even worse against AAA pitching. Also, the idea of having 3 catchers in Charlotte is silliness - it reduces the PT for the two actual prospects, and the 3rd guy as your actual MLB emergency catcher almost never plays and is rusty as hell if you need him. Just doesn't make sense to do that. Then there's the fact that if you DH them a lot, they miss out on defensive work they both need (but especially Collins) in order to be major league catchers.

 

Hostetler doesn’t agree with the idea that Collins will struggle worse against AAA pitching based on this quote:

Quote

You don't want a guy in the lower level that shows patience and the ability to judge the strike zone well -- you don't want him to compromise that because of umpires or bad calls at the Double-A level. As he goes through the system, I think you are going to see, as he gets to Triple-A and the Major Leagues as the strike zone shrinks, he's going to be better off offensively.

 

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1 hour ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Hostetler doesn’t agree with the idea that Collins will struggle worse against AAA pitching based on this quote:

 

I like Nick a lot, but I think he's got a bias here too. I just don't agree that sending him to AAA to open 2019 is a good idea.

 

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