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COVID-19/Coronavirus thread


caulfield12
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11 minutes ago, The Beast said:

It’s great news that more vaccines are available, now we just have to hope boosters can be given to fight the new variants.

It's true but I just think if we went back 6 months and said 2 vaccines would be available in Jan that prevent all hospitalizations and deaths even with the new variant that would be great news, because it is. That Moderna and pfizer were so exvellent just means we can deploy them to our most at risk populations (which we have). Just amazing performance by these biomed/pharma research and companies.

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All of these first gen vaccines being so effective at preventing severe disease and hospitalization really is great news. I think there'd be stronger positive response to J&J's data if they had come first, and then we slowly built up to the mRNA platform's 94-95%. e: also possible that the earlier trials of the mRNA vaccines benefitted from going up against fewer variants that have had selection pressure to avoid antibodies, and if they were run now they'd see similar results. 

The Oxford/AZ data still looks like a complete mess, though. There are so many poorly handled parts of the trials in various countries that it's hard to really know what's going on with that one.

Edited by StrangeSox
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One of the major takeaways people should be having is that letting this thing run rampant to get "natural herd immunity," while always an absurd and deadly proposal with little to no chance of working, is making it harder to effectively vaccinate against because we've got so many breeding grounds for new variants.

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4 hours ago, bmags said:

It's true but I just think if we went back 6 months and said 2 vaccines would be available in Jan that prevent all hospitalizations and deaths even with the new variant that would be great news, because it is. That Moderna and pfizer were so exvellent just means we can deploy them to our most at risk populations (which we have). Just amazing performance by these biomed/pharma research and companies.

I would still probably prefer getting Pfizer or Moderna even as a healthy person with no issues since they have a higher efficacy but I guess I would take JNJ with a booster against the variants. 
 

It would have been helpful to know what the companies knew about their vaccines earlier but if Biden’s vaccine distribution plan works then I guess the current course of action is fine.

17 minutes ago, bmags said:

😍

 

Awesome news. Now does anyone know when the average Joe who works in a business position from home can get the vaccine in Illinois? I may have misread the phases to understand what I would fall in.

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3 minutes ago, The Beast said:

I would still probably prefer getting Pfizer or Moderna even as a healthy person with no issues since they have a higher efficacy but I guess I would take JNJ with a booster against the variants. 
 

It would have been helpful to know what the companies knew about their vaccines earlier but if Biden’s vaccine distribution plan works then I guess the current course of action is fine.

Awesome news. Now does anyone know when the average Joe who works in a business position from home can get the vaccine in Illinois? I may have misread the phases to understand what I would fall in.

Very likely schmoes like us will be a phase 2. The main thing for people like us to look for is for phase 1C to be on track for April 1st. That would be huge, this is a large group (3.2 million) in Illinois, if it finishes there on time, we are likely looking at 3-4 vaccines at once. I'm not sure how large phase 1C is (will likely include restaurant workers among otherS). 

Phase 2 I thought was a lottery but I'm not sure. So I guess my point is let's just hope that the next phase is on track for Apr 1. And my brain is set on sometime in May for my "phase" to kick in.

 

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7 hours ago, bmags said:

novavax & j&j in two days is great. I don't want to hear any qualifiations about this efficacy. Great great news

https://www.statnews.com/2021/01/29/jj-one-dose-covid-vaccine-is-66-effective-a-weapon-but-not-a-knockout-punch/

Is it worth noting that I'm not a fan of how they released only partial data compared to the other vaccines at the same point?

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1 minute ago, Balta1701 said:

Is it worth noting that I'm not a fan of how they released only partial data compared to the other vaccines at the same point?

I mean go look back and see how you complained about full data not being released by both pfizer and moderna. It has been released ahead of FDA EUA submissions. This will too, and it will be in line. And if its not in line, it's emergency use will be delayed. AZ/OX was, and we are in emergency times now as well. 

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3 hours ago, bmags said:

I mean go look back and see how you complained about full data not being released by both pfizer and moderna. It has been released ahead of FDA EUA submissions. This will too, and it will be in line. And if its not in line, it's emergency use will be delayed. AZ/OX was, and we are in emergency times now as well. 

I believe they released the full results right before they applied for the emergency use authorization in November, which is the same stage as for this. I was complaining about lack of openness in ~June, and those companies responded well by August.

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Walgreens website is an absolute disaster to try to check for available 1b appointments, so somebody built a website that uses their API to very quickly search all nearby walgreens.

 

https://getmyvaccine.org/

 

Looking through all the ones I see in the western and southwestern suburbs, it looks like they're preparing for some shots on the 11th and a ton on the 17th.

Edited by StrangeSox
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16 hours ago, StrangeSox said:

Walgreens website is an absolute disaster to try to check for available 1b appointments, so somebody built a website that uses their API to very quickly search all nearby walgreens.

 

https://getmyvaccine.org/

 

Looking through all the ones I see in the western and southwestern suburbs, it looks like they're preparing for some shots on the 11th and a ton on the 17th.

And in this we have perfect examples of private enterprise winning and losing. 

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Don't know when they started production, they owe 100M by end of June. That gives them roughly 18 weeks to produce and deliver 98M more assuming they get EUA in late February. 5.5M per week.

I have no idea how many Moderna and Pfizer are producing a week right now.

 

e: looks like 4.4m/week each which isn't enough to meet their targets

 

In the last few weeks, they've each been steadily delivering about 4.3 million doses a week, according to an NPR examination of vaccine allocation data. But to hit their targets of 100 million doses on time, they each need to deliver 7.5 million doses a week for the next nine weeks.

Edited by StrangeSox
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https://sports.yahoo.com/dodger-stadium-covid-19-vaccinations-shut-down-protesters-012430216.html


Among the protesters were members of anti-vaccine and far-right groups, per the Times, with signs urging people to not get the vaccine. The group reportedly went out of their way to avoid political apparel:

A post on social media described the demonstration as the “SCAMDEMIC PROTEST/MARCH.” It advised participants to “please refrain from wearing Trump/MAGA attire as we want our statement to resonate with the sheeple. No flags but informational signs only.

“This is a sharing information protest and march against everything COVID, Vaccine, PCR Tests, Lockdowns, Masks, Fauci, Gates, Newsom, China, digital tracking, etc.”

One of the protesters apparently livestreamed the incident, which can be seen here. One witness told the Times that the protesters were baselessly telling people in line that the the coronavirus is not real and the vaccine is dangerous.

Edited by caulfield12
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https://www.yahoo.com/news/a-wakeup-call-how-resilient-new-coronavirus-variants-could-prolong-the-pandemic-152538072.html

Another reason herd immunity was a bad strategy...Manaus, Brazil.

“How can you have 76 percent of people infected and, at the same time, have an epidemic that’s bigger than the first?" asked one Brazilian epidemiologist.

The answer may have come on Jan. 10 with the discovery of P.1., the new Brazilian variant. Its mutations resembled the strain from South Africa, but it appeared to have arisen independently. A second variant (P.2) was soon detected as well. Both were linked to reinfection in individuals. In December, according to researchers, P.1 accounted for 42 percent of the cases sampled in Manaus; in January, that number skyrocketed to 85 percent.

It’s unclear how much of Manaus’s second surge can be attributed solely to reinfection; other factors — including increased transmissibility, an overestimation of the city’s initial infection rate and the natural waning of immunity — could be playing a part as well.

But the risk is apparent. When B.1.351 became dominant in South Africa late last year, triggering another massive surge, participants who received a placebo in Novavax’s vaccine trial caught the disease at the same rate whether or not they had experienced an earlier infection, implying that “prior infection with COVID-19 may not completely protect against subsequent infection by the South Africa escape variant,” as Novavax wrote in a news release.

“It has global implications,” Shabir Madhi, the lead investigator of the South African Novavax trial, told the Wall Street Journal. “The immunity that was induced by the prototype virus is not protective [against the new variant].”

 

 

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https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/smokers-next-group-eligible-covid-220745023.html

https://www.nj.com/education/2021/01/smokers-before-teachers-educators-incensed-over-njs-covid-vaccine-priorities.html

I understand what the optics are here and that attacking folks who took up the habit of smoking and are now addicted may be politically expedient," he added. "But at this time, we are stuck in a position where we have to prioritize limited federally distributed vaccines based on medical fact and not on political want.”  Gov. Murphy

 

Another one of those morals/ethics debates....like student loan forgiveness.

Should at-risk smokers (or those who are overweight, for example) in New Jersey be prioritized over public transit workers or teachers for Covid vaccines?

We typically blame the poor for their condition...so why reward those who don’t follow healthy lifestyles?  Should we also prioritize those who refuse to wear masks, for example?

Lots of slippery slopes.

Edited by caulfield12
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On 1/29/2021 at 8:32 PM, StrangeSox said:

Walgreens website is an absolute disaster to try to check for available 1b appointments, so somebody built a website that uses their API to very quickly search all nearby walgreens.

 

https://getmyvaccine.org/

 

Looking through all the ones I see in the western and southwestern suburbs, it looks like they're preparing for some shots on the 11th and a ton on the 17th.

It's broken. All I get is this:

Quote

Slot data is no longer updating. Walgreens added an extra layer of security to their API. This was a smart security decision for Walgreens. We are attempting to get in touch with them so we can continue collecting data, legally and in good faith. We're disabling slot results on zip code search because the data is no longer up to date. More real-time updates can be found on Twitter.

 

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Yeah, Walgreens changed their site so that site no longer works, but also isn't really necessary.

If you go through Walgreens' website, it now searches for available time slots within 25 miles. It used to be you had to select a store, then a day, then look at each 3-hour time slot. Rinse and repeat for every store you want to check and every day you want to check. There's nothing available anywhere in the Chicago area or any of the other half dozen metro areas I checked, though.

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