7/14 Games

[thxfrthmmrs]

Also, here is a real long article on the subject....

 

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2011/4/22/2...-league-k-rates

 

The article proves nothing. It only draws to conclusion that sluggers (players with higher OPS according to study) tend to have a higher strikeout rate, which is perfectly understandable. This only proves Hawkins's approach is that of a slugger, which also isn't anything new.

 

But the article does further reinforce that prospect success rate drops significantly once the prospect's minor league K% goes over 22%. And only 3% of the successful prospect (10 of them in total, since 1990), had a career MiLB K% of higher than 24%.

 

Given Hawkins's K% is at 45% right now (the highest rate by a "successful" prospect being Branyan at 33%), this study definitely causes for greater concern.

 

This is not saying Hawkins won't improve on his K% as he ages, but all signs aren't in his favor, and I definitely won't have him as a Top 3 prospect in our system right now.

 

P.S. I wouldn't take this article seriously, there are several huge issues with the basis of the research.

[southsider2k5]

Brandon Jacobs not yet arrived in B'ham, or at least he is not on their roster yet. How long does it take to ge there from Portland?

 

I believe they have 48 hours to report, at least.

[Bruce_Blixton]

My god, people are so quick to declare every prospect a bust. He may not be playing as welll as we would want our #13 overall pick to play, but my god, let's wait until he is 24 years old and still not in AA yet until he write him off.

 

I have to echo this sentiment, posters have been too hard on Hawkins this year and have unfairly scrutinized him. I really enjoy visiting Soxtalk and following the minor league action, this community is by far the most knowledgeable about the team's minor league system so I really value everyone's input in the game threads. I feel like I gain a very good understanding of the players within our system but also the system as a whole, the good with the bad. Unfortunately the current trend seems to be to keep a running count of Hawkins' strikeouts and mental errors and not in a constructive manner but a very sardonic, cynical tone.

 

My question is, what's the point of being so cynical and pessimistic? What do you have to gain by scrutinizing a player's performance to the point of not allowing anyone else to have a shred of optimism for that player? Is it some type of Borchard hangover? This isn't a personal attack against any particular poster but rather a deeper, philosophical question on how to view the players in our minor league system.

 

Also regarding Hawkins' troubles this season, can you imagine if you were a Royals fan right now? Bubba Starling, who at one point was compared to Mickey f***ing Mantle is barely hitting above the Mendoza line in the Sally league, so let's cut Hawkins a little slack for struggling. He still has the most talent and best physical tools in our system, let's give him a couple of years (or at least one full season in professional ball!) before we write him off. Sorry for the rant.

[fathom]

I have to echo this sentiment, posters have been too hard on Hawkins this year and have unfairly scrutinized him. I really enjoy visiting Soxtalk and following the minor league action, this community is by far the most knowledgeable about the team's minor league system so I really value everyone's input in the game threads. I feel like I gain a very good understanding of the players within our system but also the system as a whole, the good with the bad. Unfortunately the current trend seems to be to keep a running count of Hawkins' strikeouts and mental errors and not in a constructive manner but a very sardonic, cynical tone.

 

My question is, what's the point of being so cynical and pessimistic? What do you have to gain by scrutinizing a player's performance to the point of not allowing anyone else to have a shred of optimism for that player? Is it some type of Borchard hangover? This isn't a personal attack against any particular poster but rather a deeper, philosophical question on how to view the players in our minor league system.

 

Also regarding Hawkins' troubles this season, can you imagine if you were a Royals fan right now? Bubba Starling, who at one point was compared to Mickey f***ing Mantle is barely hitting above the Mendoza line in the Sally league, so let's cut Hawkins a little slack for struggling. He still has the most talent and best physical tools in our system, let's give him a couple of years (or at least one full season in professional ball!) before we write him off. Sorry for the rant.

 

This is a great post, and I don't think those that talk negatively about Hawkins' K rate have a hatred for him. I think it's more that most, if not all, want the organization to step in and either send him down to Kanny or Instructional League. I don't care about any of the twitter stuff...but of course, I'm a Johnny Manziel fan also.

[danman31]

Also regarding Hawkins' troubles this season, can you imagine if you were a Royals fan right now? Bubba Starling, who at one point was compared to Mickey f***ing Mantle is barely hitting above the Mendoza line in the Sally league, so let's cut Hawkins a little slack for struggling.

What does another prospect having a crappy season have to do with Hawkins? Starling might not be any good either.

 

The problem with Hawkins is there is no precedent for a player sucking as pathetically as him to then turn it around. He's overmatched and it's not a good sign. Sure, there's hope, but it's sickening to see a player go through this.

[thxfrthmmrs]

I would like to see some views on Charlie Leesman. I feel like he was getting slotted somewhere between 10-15 on most prospect lists last year. I know he is 26 but the dude gets lefties out.

 

Vs. LHB: 16.1 IP, 23 Ks and .127 batting average.

 

Fastball only coming in around 90 but he seems to be of the crafty variety and I am sure a transition to a relief role could bump up his fastball a touch. Very deceptive with a lower arm angle. He's has success in several different seasons/levels and seems to be improving in his second straight year at Charlotte. K rate way up.

 

He will definitely be up this season after the trade deadline, if not, as a September call up.

 

I feel like he was a miss for the FS Mid Season top 25 list. I would put him over Santos Rodriguez.

 

He was the 11th best prospect in our system according to Fangraphs last year. Scouting report says his stuff is that of a AAAA player, and he's been overachieving in the minors. We will see how he fares as a lefty out of then pen later this year.

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

What does another prospect having a crappy season have to do with Hawkins? Starling might not be any good either.

 

The problem with Hawkins is there is no precedent for a player sucking as pathetically as him to then turn it around. He's overmatched and it's not a good sign. Sure, there's hope, but it's sickening to see a player go through this.

 

By "sucking as pathetically as him" you mean in terms to K rate. He is doing other things well, and other things NOT historically bad.

 

Is his season encouraging? No. Are parts of his game this season encouraging? Sure.

 

Do we give up on him at age 19 in his 1st full season in pro ball? f*** NO.

[thxfrthmmrs]

I have to echo this sentiment, posters have been too hard on Hawkins this year and have unfairly scrutinized him. I really enjoy visiting Soxtalk and following the minor league action, this community is by far the most knowledgeable about the team's minor league system so I really value everyone's input in the game threads. I feel like I gain a very good understanding of the players within our system but also the system as a whole, the good with the bad. Unfortunately the current trend seems to be to keep a running count of Hawkins' strikeouts and mental errors and not in a constructive manner but a very sardonic, cynical tone.

 

My question is, what's the point of being so cynical and pessimistic? What do you have to gain by scrutinizing a player's performance to the point of not allowing anyone else to have a shred of optimism for that player? Is it some type of Borchard hangover? This isn't a personal attack against any particular poster but rather a deeper, philosophical question on how to view the players in our minor league system.

 

Also regarding Hawkins' troubles this season, can you imagine if you were a Royals fan right now? Bubba Starling, who at one point was compared to Mickey f***ing Mantle is barely hitting above the Mendoza line in the Sally league, so let's cut Hawkins a little slack for struggling. He still has the most talent and best physical tools in our system, let's give him a couple of years (or at least one full season in professional ball!) before we write him off. Sorry for the rant.

 

When your major league team is a major disappointment, and your young phenom and supposedly your best prospect, by far, is having an historically bad season, it's hard to keep people's mouth shut.

 

I think that outside of the Twitter thread, most of the sentiments here aren't really over the edge, or offensive, by any means, and most of them have been constructive. I see a lot of posters are suggesting demoting Hawkins to help him rediscover the basics, giving him extra time off, etc. Some folks are seemingly ready to write him off, but it happens. Personally, I am debating whether some folks are right to have him still best the number 1 prospect in the system, with Erik Johnson having the phenomenal season he's having. But that's just me.

 

I think your post is a great post, it's always good to have optimism around. And that's what makes a fun debate between the pro Hawkins and the down on Hawkins.

[caulfield12]

If the White Sox minor league system/Bell/Lauman had some kind of track record of success...with ANY position players...in terms of taking them from point A to point B, then he (Hawkins) wouldn't be getting hammered as hard as he has been.

 

For example, if he was in the middle of the Cardinals' system right now.

 

All they can claim is Beckham (in the minors less than a year), Alexei and Viciedo, and all three of those guys were atypical situations. And the majority would certainly argue that Gordon and Dayan have disappointed.

 

The jury's still out on Phegley, of course. But Flowers, so far, has also turned into a huge black hole in the line-up, offensively, defensively and, most importantly, from a leadership standpoint.

Edited July 15, 2013 by caulfield12

[Jake]

If the White Sox minor league system/Bell/Lauman had some kind of track record of success...with ANY position players...in terms of taking them from point A to point B, then he (Hawkins) wouldn't be getting hammered as hard as he has been.

 

For example, if he was in the middle of the Cardinals' system right now.

 

All they can claim is Beckham (in the minors less than a year), Alexei and Viciedo, and all three of those guys were atypical situations. And the majority would certainly argue that Gordon and Dayan have disappointed.

 

The jury's still out on Phegley, of course.

 

The jury's in!!! Pheg-mania!!!

[thxfrthmmrs]

It's worth mentioning that Fangraphs LOVES him. I believe (correct me if I'm wrong) he registers very well with the advanced metrics. Very good ground ball rates throughout his career as well which is something a team playing in our park would like.

 

He's always fared pretty well in the xFIP department on Fangraphs, and his sinker produces enough ground balls to give him a shot at the big leagues. With his peripherals against lefties this year, even if he doesn't pan out as a back of the rotation option, he should still be a solid LOOGY for a few years.

[caulfield12]

The jury's in!!! Pheg-mania!!!

 

 

Have at it, lol.

 

It is a bit telling when they most exciting thing about watching the White Sox is hoping Josh can hit .260 or above.

[Jake]

An interesting back and forth I had, in all seriousness, was a Cubs fan telling me that their team was "home-grown" whereas the White Sox are not. Now, there are some things to settle as far what home-grown is...but to me, a home-grown player is one who was not exactly a sought-after a player and whose presence can be attributed to managerial/scouting savvy. So, Dunn is not home-grown. However, I say Alejandro De Aza is. In other terms, scrap heap acquisitions will usually pass the test - if nobody associates this player with another team, he probably counts. By this measure, we have:

 

-Chris Sale

-John Danks

-Jose Quintana

-Hector Santiago

-Dylan Axelrod

-Addison Reed

-Nate Jones

 

-De Aza

-Beckham

-Alexei

-Dayan

-Phegley

-Flowers

-Gillaspie

 

Paulie is borderline to me. He was pretty much a bona fide major leaguer when we got him. He was going to be an MLBer whether he was a Sox or not. I counted him out. Gillaspie, on the other hand, may not have had an opportunity without good scouting and development by the White Sox. That's a pretty home grown team (I don't know if it's a good one, but it isn't exactly cluttered with FAs, etc.)

[danman31]

He will definitely be up this season after the trade deadline, if not, as a September call up.

 

I feel like he was a miss for the FS Mid Season top 25 list. I would put him over Santos Rodriguez.

 

He was the 11th best prospect in our system according to Fangraphs last year. Scouting report says his stuff is that of a AAAA player, and he's been overachieving in the minors. We will see how he fares as a lefty out of then pen later this year.

He was removed from the 40-man roster and cleared waivers, which means no team in baseball thought he was worth a 40-man roster spot. The Sox re-signed him after he was a free agent. The stats are great, but he's not a prospect if he cleared waivers at 26 years old.

 

Gillaspie, on the other hand, may not have had an opportunity without good scouting and development by the White Sox. That's a pretty home grown team (I don't know if it's a good one, but it isn't exactly cluttered with FAs, etc.)

Your definition of home grown is strange and contrived IMO. Even then, Gillaspie was another team's supplemental pick, he didn't play in the minors with the Sox and he's not even that good anyway. I'll give you Axelrod and Quintana because they play in the minors with the Sox, but De Aza is another bad choice. He already lost his rookie status before coming to the Sox. Still, by my count 13 of the current 25 are home grown (I didn't count John Danks either). 13 is a good number, but given the team's record we'd probably be happier if it was closer to 8.

[caulfield12]

He was removed from the 40-man roster and cleared waivers, which means no team in baseball thought he was worth a 40-man roster spot. The Sox re-signed him after he was a free agent. The stats are great, but he's not a prospect if he cleared waivers at 26 years old.

 

 

Your definition of home grown is strange and contrived IMO. Even then, Gillaspie was another team's supplemental pick, he didn't play in the minors with the Sox and he's not even that good anyway. I'll give you Axelrod and Quintana because they play in the minors with the Sox, but De Aza is another bad choice. He already lost his rookie status before coming to the Sox. Still, by my count 13 of the current 25 are home grown (I didn't count John Danks either). 13 is a good number, but given the team's record we'd probably be happier if it was closer to 8.

 

 

It should probably be broken down into Sox scouting...."near the major leagues," like a Gillaspie or Ramirez or Quentin.

 

With Quintana, his agent actively sought out the White Sox when the Yankees exposed him to minor league free agency...so let's not pat ourselves too much on the back there, the agent really did his homework on teams where there might be an opportunity in the near future and also had a good track record of working with Hispanic players (in our case, the Cubans, certainly not the DR or Venezuela, although Paddy has helped there, too). Then, finally, the Don Cooper Effect.

 

He pitched for us in the minors for what, a month? Made maybe one start in Birmingham, or two?

Edited July 15, 2013 by caulfield12

[flavum]

I have to echo this sentiment, posters have been too hard on Hawkins this year and have unfairly scrutinized him. I really enjoy visiting Soxtalk and following the minor league action, this community is by far the most knowledgeable about the team's minor league system so I really value everyone's input in the game threads. I feel like I gain a very good understanding of the players within our system but also the system as a whole, the good with the bad. Unfortunately the current trend seems to be to keep a running count of Hawkins' strikeouts and mental errors and not in a constructive manner but a very sardonic, cynical tone.

 

My question is, what's the point of being so cynical and pessimistic? What do you have to gain by scrutinizing a player's performance to the point of not allowing anyone else to have a shred of optimism for that player? Is it some type of Borchard hangover? This isn't a personal attack against any particular poster but rather a deeper, philosophical question on how to view the players in our minor league system.

 

Also regarding Hawkins' troubles this season, can you imagine if you were a Royals fan right now? Bubba Starling, who at one point was compared to Mickey f***ing Mantle is barely hitting above the Mendoza line in the Sally league, so let's cut Hawkins a little slack for struggling. He still has the most talent and best physical tools in our system, let's give him a couple of years (or at least one full season in professional ball!) before we write him off. Sorry for the rant.

 

I'm still hopeful Hawkins can turn it around this season and next year. Like I said yesterday, it wold be unfair to put the "bust" label on a 19 yr old, but the fact is no future big league player with 250 career homers ever struggled to this extent with an average under .200, an OBP under .300, and almost a 50% K rate in their minor league careers. That's just a fact. So it would be a good sign if he could get those numbers improved over the next 7 weeks of the season.

 

He's got 37 games left. I hope he does well.

[ChiSox_Sonix]

Has there ever been a player that has K'd at his rate that has gone on to have a successful career in MLB?

 

Glenallen Hill had two seasons of near 40% K rate in A-ball when he was 20-21 years old. He then struck out only 21% of the time during his major league career

 

Obviously, if Hawkins turns into Glenallen Hill it would be a disappointment, but it's not as if Hill was a worthless player either.

Edited July 15, 2013 by ChiSox_Sonix

[NorthSideSox72]

For all the people pointing out that few players (or none) have had as bad a K rate as Hawkins early in their careers and been successful... how many HS draftees went to A+ their draft year? Were playing there at 18 and 19? Some sure, but very, very few. It is such a small group that, really, the comparisons don't mean a ton.

 

It is also worth pointing out that, as of a few days ago (when we were doing the FS T25 write-up), he had K'd in about 57% of his first 70 PA (until just before his injury), but his rate since then has been about 36% over 150 PA. Just something to keep in mind. 36% is bad, but isn't nearly 57% bad.

 

Being worried about Hawkins makes complete sense. Saying he is a "bust" at this point does not.

 

[flavum]

For all the people pointing out that few players (or none) have had as bad a K rate as Hawkins early in their careers and been successful... how many HS draftees went to A+ their draft year? Were playing there at 18 and 19? Some sure, but very, very few. It is such a small group that, really, the comparisons don't mean a ton.

 

It is also worth pointing out that, as of a few days ago (when we were doing the FS T25 write-up), he had K'd in about 57% of his first 70 PA (until just before his injury), but his rate since then has been about 36% over 150 PA. Just something to keep in mind. 36% is bad, but isn't nearly 57% bad.

 

Being worried about Hawkins makes complete sense. Saying he is a "bust" at this point does not.

 

That's fair, but he would be in a category of his own if he turned out to be a successful everyday middle-of-the-order major league player.

 

That said, at most, he'll play 95 games this year. That's not a lot to go on either. So no matter what happens this season, he'll still only going to be 20 next year and more than likely he'll go right back to Winston-Salem to play 135 games. He's got plenty of time. Hopefully a year from now, we're all talking about his improvement over 2013.

[Knackattack]

For all the people pointing out that few players (or none) have had as bad a K rate as Hawkins early in their careers and been successful... how many HS draftees went to A+ their draft year? Were playing there at 18 and 19? Some sure, but very, very few. It is such a small group that, really, the comparisons don't mean a ton.

 

It is also worth pointing out that, as of a few days ago (when we were doing the FS T25 write-up), he had K'd in about 57% of his first 70 PA (until just before his injury), but his rate since then has been about 36% over 150 PA. Just something to keep in mind. 36% is bad, but isn't nearly 57% bad.

 

Being worried about Hawkins makes complete sense. Saying he is a "bust" at this point does not.

Probably the best post in this thread.

 

I was lead to believe that the minor leagues were around for players to hone their skills and correct problems such as terrible pitch recognition and swing issues. This dude isn't even 20 and has the skills to be a monster, with a guy like that as long as there is some form of improvement throughout the season (such as the above mentioned drop in K rate) that is good enough reason for me to believe that they are advancing their skills and knowledge. Over the offseason he will probably have extensive video and swing work with some sort of coach and come out much better next year.

[Jake]

For all the people pointing out that few players (or none) have had as bad a K rate as Hawkins early in their careers and been successful... how many HS draftees went to A+ their draft year? Were playing there at 18 and 19? Some sure, but very, very few. It is such a small group that, really, the comparisons don't mean a ton.

 

It is also worth pointing out that, as of a few days ago (when we were doing the FS T25 write-up), he had K'd in about 57% of his first 70 PA (until just before his injury), but his rate since then has been about 36% over 150 PA. Just something to keep in mind. 36% is bad, but isn't nearly 57% bad.

 

Being worried about Hawkins makes complete sense. Saying he is a "bust" at this point does not.

 

This is a really good split. I didn't know that. Great post. I love you. Etc.

[NorthSideSox72]

This is a really good split. I didn't know that. Great post. I love you. Etc.

awesome.

 

Normally would be really hard to find that split. But by happenstance, I wrote that Hawkins analysis piece for FS in late April, and has his numbers then through 70 PA. So I was able to work it back from the current numbers to get that split.

 

[southsider2k5]

He will definitely be up this season after the trade deadline, if not, as a September call up.

 

I feel like he was a miss for the FS Mid Season top 25 list. I would put him over Santos Rodriguez.

 

He was the 11th best prospect in our system according to Fangraphs last year. Scouting report says his stuff is that of a AAAA player, and he's been overachieving in the minors. We will see how he fares as a lefty out of then pen later this year.

 

He's not on the 40 man roster, and I would be shocked if they would bring back a guy they just let go earlier this year.

[southsider2k5]

Glenallen Hill had two seasons of near 40% K rate in A-ball when he was 20-21 years old. He then struck out only 21% of the time during his major league career

 

Obviously, if Hawkins turns into Glenallen Hill it would be a disappointment, but it's not as if Hill was a worthless player either.

 

If you get a major leaguer out of any draft pick, it is hard to call it at disappointment, especially if you aren't talking ARod, KGJr, or someone like that.

[danman31]

If you get a major leaguer out of any draft pick, it is hard to call it at disappointment, especially if you aren't talking ARod, KGJr, or someone like that.

Right, but if Hawkins is nothing more than a power bat off the bench than we need to reevaluate him as a prospect. He has plenty of time, but this season is a more than a red flag.