Right to be skeptical?

[caulfield12]

A+ to AA in terms of hitting

A+ to low A in term of pitching talent

 

Navarro and David Wells, despite years ago, always get brought up. Dunn. Keppinger, haha.

 

On the other hand, you have "international" free agents like Ramirez, Takatsu and Iguchi who all made positive if short-lived impacts.

 

I think a lot of it has to do with Viciedo's lack of impact....even if you compare him positively with Rizzo, which you can...a lot of Sox fans have been disappointed with him.

 

You compare Viciedo to Puig/Cespedes and the Soler hype machine, somehow what comes out of that is "bust/disappointment" and not Rookie of the Year, whether that's fair or not. That, combined with the lack of development of nearly every hyped Sox hitting prospect (especially Thompson, Hawkins, Mitchell and Walker) and you have another reason for healthy skepticism about out scouts. Then there's the Gordon Beckham fiasco (despite Dick Allen's comparison to the rest of the draft picks that year).

 

Which almost makes you think both Zapata and Abreu will be breakout stars, SOMETHING has to go right eventually, like it did in 2005.

Edited October 20, 2013 by caulfield12

[SCCWS]

If the White Sox are wrong on this one then people will lose their jobs. I'm content with that. Kenny and Rick just put $70 million of other people's money on the line as a bet on this guy. If they lose the bet the team loses for another 2-3 years and then the White Sox are looking for a fresh set of voices in their front office.

 

 

Based on what??? Was Kenny wrong on Dunn??? I think Dunn was a disappointment but Kenny is still there. Based on where the White Sox stand, I think this is a chance they had to take.

[caulfield12]

It is pretty amazing how far the bar has moved economically in 12-24 months.

 

This contract would have seemed insane a year ago...nobody was willing to pay Puig at 22 what the Dodgers did.

 

Now you have a player in the prime of his career, seemingly ready to contribute right from the get go.

 

Of course, years from now, they'll probably be saying Soler and Concepcion (whatever the name of that soft-tossing LHP from Cuba) were grossly overpaid by Epstein. We'll see.

 

Einhorn put it best....it's a calculated risk/gamble, you have to give your fans a reason to have hope and believe in the organization again. There's no guarantee it will work out, certainly, but you have to give them something more than James Loney or Corey Hart.

 

 

[EvilMonkey]

Didn't he do well in that baseball classic thing or whatever it was, where there WAS some major league pitching present?

[caulfield12]

Didn't he do well in that baseball classic thing or whatever it was, where there WAS some major league pitching present?

 

 

Even then, everyone has been consistently saying Despaigne (played in Mexico recently, on loan) and Cepeda were more exciting/better raw tools/bat speed/light tower power.

 

I feel like instead of McGwire, Bonds, Ryan Howard or Miggy Cabrera or one of those comps...he'll be more like a RH version of Fred McGriff.

 

[elrockinMT]

Cuban baseball has to be as good if not better than Japanese baseball don't you think? Aplus league level is awfully low. I am thinking at least AA plus or AAA. They have won the baseball world classic before with their all-stars

[caulfield12]

Cuban baseball has to be as good if not better than Japanese baseball don't you think? Aplus league level is awfully low. I am thinking at least AA plus or AAA. They have won the baseball world classic before with their all-stars

 

 

Not really.

 

Look at how many 25-33 year old Japanese players who have come into the game since Ichiro. Compare that, especially, pitching wise, with Cuba and the likes of El Duque and Contreras.

 

Off the top of my head, you have this new guy (Tanaka) and Anraku, Kuroda, Mac Suzuki, Dice K, Hideo Nomo, Kei Igawa, Hideki Irabu, Uehara (best closer in the game), Sasaki (former M's closer), Yu Darvish, Iwakuma (M's), Tazawa, Saito, Hasegawa, Okajima, etc.

 

Look at how well South Korea has played against those Japanese players. And yet how many Koreans have made a huge impact so far...just Choo, Choi and Chan Ho Park, along with Ryu this season (most of their players are never allowed to leave and/or run into military service requirements).

 

 

[professa]

This is how I look at the signing:

 

Worst case: he ends up like Dayan Viciedo and has a ton of talent but is streaky and can't put it together ~ .230/.300/.450 20-25 HR

Best Case: A right handed Ryan Howard in his prime ~ .280/.400/.500 40-45 HR

 

If JDA performs to his worse case scenario above, those stats would still warrant a 8-10 million/yr deal on the open market. His best case scenario would get him 20-25 million. I think this is a fair deal overall when you consider that. Obviously he could pull a Dunn which would obviously not make it worth it but I foresee him putting up something like .260/.350/.475 with 30 HR. Thats 12-15 million on the open market. We are paying him just over 10/year, probably less with the signing bonus. I like this signing, it's exciting and worth the risk. Better than bringing in a Morales/Hart/Morneau and have to commit that same amount/year, although it is safer, but likely with less upside.

[caulfield12]

This is how I look at the signing:

 

Worst case: he ends up like Dayan Viciedo and has a ton of talent but is streaky and can't put it together ~ .230/.300/.450 20-25 HR

Best Case: A right handed Ryan Howard in his prime ~ .280/.400/.500 40-45 HR

 

If JDA performs to his worse case scenario above, those stats would still warrant a 8-10 million/yr deal on the open market. His best case scenario would get him 20-25 million. I think this is a fair deal overall when you consider that. Obviously he could pull a Dunn which would obviously not make it worth it but I foresee him putting up something like .260/.350/.475 with 30 HR. Thats 12-15 million on the open market. We are paying him just over 10/year, probably less with the signing bonus. I like this signing, it's exciting and worth the risk. Better than bringing in a Morales/Hart/Morneau and have to commit that same amount/year, although it is safer, but likely with less upside.

 

 

This is the key part. We shouldn't forget that Morales is likely to turn down $14 million for just one season.

 

All those guys, and you can include James Loney as well as an option...Morales, Napoli, Hart and Morneau could ALL be better players in 2014. It's possible.

 

But their future upside is limited...and they're all entering their 30's or already there.

 

The White Sox need potential superstars...and so far that hasn't panned out with Beckham, Viciedo and Hawkins (more from the average fan's perspective), and is still yet to be determined with Avisail Garcia. But you have to go after those types of impact bats, or you're just going to be mired in mediocrity forever.

 

Even Trayce Thompson has the ability to be an All-Star, or Mitchell. Of course, they might never even make it to the major leagues. But you can't just draft "safe" Jeremy Reeds. You have to swing for the fences and go for it.

Edited October 20, 2013 by caulfield12

[Jerksticks]

I agree on an emphasis to acquire a superstar. We need to become the hot baseball ticket in town. It's there for the taking.

[Balta1701]

I agree on an emphasis to acquire a superstar. We need to become the hot baseball ticket in town. It's there for the taking.

Hopefully we already did. At the least we just paid for one.

[Chicago White Sox]

Hopefully we already did. At the least we just paid for one.

Abreu is only making $11M per season, do you really consider Adam LaRoche a star? That's simply the going rate for a power-hitting 1B not the next Albert Pujols.

[Balta1701]

Abreu is only making $11M per season, do you really consider Adam LaRoche a star? That's simply the going rate for a power-hitting 1B not the next Albert Pujols.

Of course, the right comparison is guys who haven't played an inning of MLB-ball when you look at that salary...and in that case, that ought to be the going rate for a would-be star.

[southsider2k5]

Hopefully we already did. At the least we just paid for one.

 

Not even close.

[thxfrthmmrs]

Not even close.

 

The fact that we just shelled out $70 mil for this guy and that we are going to make a strong push for Granderson tells me that the FO is looking to make a playoff push next season. I am fairly optimistic that the south side will have more the competitive baseball team for the next year or two.

Edited October 21, 2013 by thxfrthmmrs

[caulfield12]

The fact that we just shelled out $70 mil for this guy and that we are going to make a strong push for Granderson tells me that the FO is looking to make a playoff push next season. I am fairly optimistic that the south side will have more the competitive baseball team for the next year or two.

 

 

Except adding Granderson isn't a huge upgrade over DeAza.

 

And we're spending another $45 million and blocking ourselves from adding a catcher by any means other than dealing Ramirez, Viciedo, Santiago/Quintana, Beckham and Jones/Reed.

 

If anything, we shouldn't be complacent about 3B/2B/C.

 

Catcher seems to be the biggest key at the moment.

 

And we'd be in the same situation as the Tigers were going into this season without a closer...because there are so many holes in the bullpen, there's just no way to compete without anyone reliable to get the game to the 8th and 9th.

 

Sure, Webb might do great, or he might fall on his face. Lindstrom might improve. But to say he's the equivalent of another Octavio Dotel or Linebrink, though, is a bit premature. You'd think they would have at least one veteran down there if they were approaching 2014 as if they were really trying to compete.

[Texsox]

This was the selling tickets, get the fans excited move that they needed. Even better that it will fill the entire off season.

[LittleHurt05]

This was the selling tickets, get the fans excited move that they needed. Even better that it will fill the entire off season.

 

 

Do people really think this move is gonna help sell tickets? Your average fan will probably have never even heard of Abreu.

[Eminor3rd]

Even then, everyone has been consistently saying Despaigne (played in Mexico recently, on loan) and Cepeda were more exciting/better raw tools/bat speed/light tower power.

 

I feel like instead of McGwire, Bonds, Ryan Howard or Miggy Cabrera or one of those comps...he'll be more like a RH version of Fred McGriff.

 

From what I understand, Despaigne specifically was a super hitchy swing that scouts have felt only works on low level pitching.Could be getting that mixed up with someone else.

[Eminor3rd]

Do people really think this move is gonna help sell tickets? Your average fan will probably have never even heard of Abreu.

 

Until the franchise spends millions marketing it.

[LittleHurt05]

Until the franchise spends millions marketing it.

 

And that still doesn't convince me that it will still help sell tickets unless Abreu helps win ball games.

[Eminor3rd]

And that still doesn't convince me that it will still help sell tickets unless Abreu helps win ball games.

 

I agree.

[Texsox]

Do people really think this move is gonna help sell tickets? Your average fan will probably have never even heard of Abreu.

 

Yes. It keeps the Sox in the news. It is a signal the team isn't accepting 2013 and will make bold moves.

 

What was the marketing going to be without a major signing? "These Kids Can Play"? You can only do so much around Sale.

 

The fact that the average fan hasn't heard of Abreu is actually a positive. What the average fan will know about Abreu is what the team tells the average fan. He is THE GREATEST SLUGGER In CUBA!! The NEXT CABRERA!! BONDS!! Buy tickets now before they are all sold out. Season ticket holders have a glimmer of hope and perhaps the cancellation rate lowers a notch or two.

 

Or they could market buying tickets to see Konerko, Dunn, Beckham, Ramirez, Phegley,

[Eminor3rd]

Hawk is gonna sell Abreu so hard.

 

"I tell ya, Stony, this kid has a chance to be a MONSTER. The sound it makes off this kid's bat... I say the best three right-handed hitters we've seen over the last twenty years are TheBigHurtFrankThomas, Manny Ramirez, and Miguel Cabrera -- this guy has a chance to be as good as ALL OF EM."

 

"I don't know about the other league, but the three liveliest bats in this league are Cespedes, Viciedo, and Abreu -- and we got TWO OF EM"

Edited October 21, 2013 by Eminor3rd

[Texsox]

Hawk is gonna sell Abreu so hard.

 

I tell ya, Stony, this kid has chance to be a MONSTER. The sound it makes off this kid's bat... I say the best three right-handed hitters we've seen over the last twenty years are TheBigHurtFrankThomas, Manny Ramirez, and Miguel Cabrera -- this guy has a chance to be as good as ALL OF EM.

 

Dead on.