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We have no idea that they last money lost year. They purposely cut payroll to an all time low since 2001 (inflation adjusted) to accommodate most of these factors. They may have lost some money, but no way to know for sure or to what extent.

He generated a ton of ground balls last year as he changed his pitch mix and added cutter and greatly increased his sinker usage.

What free agent OFs do you prefer?

Some strange ass stats last year. Had a HR/9 rate of .49 but a BABIP of .344. 1.7 bWAR but basically replacement level prior season. He's a reliever so yea, let's hope we get the middle case and he can provide 70 innings of around 3.25 ERA relief.

That depends on how far the new TV deal fell, and how much of last year they expected to happen. If it fell by half-ish, they are in the same situation going forward, as they were last year. Knowing the hit the team is going to take from dropping tiers on Comcast alone is a pretty big red flag for them going forward. Unless Ish is writing checks for both the hundred million in debt, the losses for last year, and more players this year, I think expecting a significantly bigger payroll in 2025 is at best a wait and see. I definitely wouldn't assume it.

Who dis guy?

Kepler has done nothing recently to deserve a 2-year deal. He also turns 33 in February. Yuck.

Quero traded?

I’m certain they would have called down their payroll last year given the lack of a TV deal. I don’t disagree with you that they usually last year’s revenue as the starting point for the following season, but it’s not one for one and last year was a very unique situation. As such, any full season TV deal this year is going to be better than last year’s contribution.

Kepler is a perfectly fine bridge for Braden. His BA and WOBA last year were below his xBA and xWOBA so there may be some positive regression. For 1 yr and 9m or so, that would be solid.

I do get the vibe the Sox are eager to move Robert. The Reds seem far more likely to me than the Mets at the moment because Cincinnati is going to have to take on some trade risk to land potential impact talent. I do kind of like the idea of Robert & cash for Petty and their Comp B pick. Maybe that’s too much of a return, but I’d love to have Bannister get his hands on Petty while adding another $1M or so to our total draft pool next year.

Get Kepler and then Chase Burns or Sam Aldegheri and we'd complete the Axis

Because either they took the lost last year and need to pay it off, or last year sets the next season's payroll, which has always been the Sox MO. They add or subtract based on what the previous season looks like. This franchise took a mid tens of millions dollars worth of a haircut during the season for their historic revenues on their TV contract, and it also going to affect continuing revenues as it is going to smaller than the previous one going forward.

Kepler was awful last year but I guess if he’s cheap enough

Why?

If we want to trade Robert and redeploy those dollars elsewhere, that’s a totally different matter. I’m just saying I very much doubt that we’d need to move him to afford Murakami’s salary. And yes, I have us right around $84M right now, so another $6M or so to work with to get to that floor.

The effect of not having a TV contract last year is not going to help this year.

Loves, as a Christian loves his fellow man.

when Getz responds: "Do we love Luis Robert? Yes, we absolutely love Luis Robert" the way he nervously restates the question and then answers it sounds almost like i'm talking about i'm talking about my house, to my friends. if i'm talking to my family about our house it's going to be a very different phrasing

Jeez, is it so hard for somebody to pretend to be an MLB insider and post knowing "rumors"?

$90M is super low is my point. I feel very confident that last year was the worst case scenario in terms of payroll given the recent losses and lack of a TV deal to enter the season. And last year we were at about $80M. I think the plan was always to go up some this year without taking on huge long-term dollars. I feel good about the $90M figure being a reasonable, but still conservative figure that protects Jerry’s bottom line in a rebuild year.

There's a big difference between "should" and what JR allows to happen as you know. From what you mentioned previously, I thought you said we were around 61m currently IIRC, so if you add 17m for Murakami and 4.5m for the reliever we just added, we're already around 82-83m, so as you can see we are already getting close to your 90m budget number without addressing SP at all or the BP further. If they move Robert for Petty and eat say 8m of the 20m, we have hit two birds with one stone by going down to around 70m and adding a cash cheap SP with still significant ammo to land another SP and maybe have room for the Houston CF salary if they trade Cannon for him.

Bad defender and base runner who doesnt carry the iso value to trust sustained success as a hitter only imo. Lost some bat speed already last year, getting older, and just think that iso and bat speed continues down from here. I also just dont trust thet he's suddenly hitting lefties.