I think it's simplistic to just say the owners are stupid. The owners are multi-billionaires and CEOs. They're going to act in their own interests. The players had gotten their pockets picked for a decade or so, allowing the owners to claw back control in exchange for better post-game food spreads and better hot tubs.
I agree with you that the owners might puff out their chests, get all tough to cancel all the winter meetings, and then they'll magically come to agreement in the middle of March for a quick 3-week spring training, then a full season. I believe they'll hold up the salary cap, and trade that away for more rule changes and pilferage around the edges.