Look at Ray Ray Run

I thought there was little doubt they'd extend him a QO; I was with you there. It made sense; control and suppress his market, limit risk and liability, and also pay him close to market rate - make him prove it one more year before investing any longevity into him.

When your property is covered in holes, you typically don't want to dig another one while attempting to fill in the others.

1. There are many ways to value a player; WAR is a nice tool, but certainly not the only defining analysis done on players. 2. 1st baseman and DH's have been over penalized imo; they are penalized too much for their position/defense. Offense still reigns in baseball, despite the fact that base running and defense do matter. In general, it's pretty obvious to me that WAR undervalues Abreu's contributions to a certain degree. 3. Not a single person in the game thinks the Sox extending the QO to Abreu was an overpay or bad move. 4. Fangraphs doesn't set the value rates for FA's.

He's not great there no doubt, and while Tim is better and has a higher defensive ceiling for sure it wouldn't be all that different than a Twins fan saying the Sox should move Anderson off short for Didi.

At what position? Twins had a pretty good 25 year old SS.

With Andujar coming back, the Yankees have an infield logjam; making Didi expendable. They may think he is worth the QO but they don't want the risk of him accepting it and playing one more year to how he's recovered from TJ fully before entering FA again with no QO tied to him. Regardless, your entire argument is that he is worth 9-10 million. I'm not sure how you come to that conclusion. He'll sign a multi-year deal somewhere in the 15-18 million range per year.

Um... uh. 1. Didi played 82 games. 2. The year prior he had a WAR of 4.7 and the year before that it was 4.1. Teams amazingly don't only judge you based on one half season coming off injury. If you think a guy who averaged 4.4 WAR over the two year period is going to sign for 9-10 million, you crazy. Are you willingly ignorant?

In the last three years, he's graded out as the third worst defensive player in major league baseball. I'm not saying that metric is 10000% accurate but I tend to think it means he's likely really horrible.

Ha. I feel this exact same way.

As the saying goes, all it takes is one. I just think in this scenario the potential of that one has shrunk substantially. Leaving him vulnerable. Say the Sox sign Grandal, or the Rangers, then what? Maybe you find a team like the Cubs to take a chance, but if you don't you're left out there floating in silence with no phones ringing because your initial ask is viewed as far too much.

I'm curious to see Castellanos market. Consensus is he's a horrible fielder that needs to be a DH - even moreso as he ages. As was the case with JD, there's like 2 teams in that market and he's no where near JD as a hitter. He is young for a FA and you could argue he still could improve. But theres a real chance there's no market for the guy and he's stuck taking a 1 or 2 year deal for like 18 (1) 30 million (2). Baseball front offices have just lowered the value of his specific skill set significantly over the past 5ish years. He could be sitting out there for a while.

Honestly depends; if robert can be even 80-85% as good as buxton it would be impossible to be the worst outfield - that's how important center is to outfield grades; it's also how incredible buxton is. By all accounts Robert is an absolute stud out there but not sure how well his routes will grade out.

Good point; regarding DH. I think we're further away from that change than next CBA but you never know.

Huh? If he got 3/38 hed be a moron to turn that down for 1 year 18 million.

The Sox weren't lying when they said they want Jose retire a White Sox. They just left out the part that they want him to retire after next year. ?

Calhoun is a maddening player to watch. So streaky. He would drive White Sox fans crazy.

4.4 million is like .5 WAR in these negotiations. For his age most models will show similar regression from this year to next to cancel out that value. I hear what you're saying but the later you get into your thirties the less likely a team is to invest in you. Given how long it took JD to get this contract signed In the first place i think it's safe to say the market isnt in JDs favor.

Obviously not suitors for him; unless they were trading stanton and eating 50% of the deal which would make no sense.

Sure but if teams didnt find him worth his salary this year, with basic aging regression he certainly wouldnt be worth his salary next year at 4.5 million less.

Once again, it is already implied he would have to beat the offer to opt out. You can gauge interest without discussing numbers. This isnt rocket science. There was possibly only one - at most two - suitors for JD. Having a team negotiate against themselves doesnt usually work; although it did work for JD the first time. I am on record saying an opt out didnt make much sense given the risk vs reward. At most he gets a small raise but at the expense of possibly getting less. His current contract was likely a maximization of his worth.

He would be a year older. Hed be giving away the most valuable year of the contract, this year. If a team was not willing to beat the offer to capture this year, they will be even less willing to beat it without the youngest and projected best year of the deal.

Jd Martinez made the decision because he determined he would not make more than what he signed for. Theres nothing he could do to make himself more valuable next year (being 1 year older) than he is right now.

Why?

If Wheeler is out of their price range they will never be ready to compete in the modern game. You could argue it's reasonable for Cole to be out of their price range, but Wheeler and Martinez? That would just mean the White Sox were never ready to compete and were never serious about it. That doesn't mean they should sign those players no matter what - they shouldn't exceed some crazy number just to make a point - but they should certainly be in the conversations and making elite level competitive offers.

Not sure how he is an upgrade over Nova. Nova has out-WAR'ed him the past two years. Their FIPS are really close, Teheran has simply been bad the past three years... and that's bad in the NL. Teheran would be a disaster in the AL, imo.