Look at Ray Ray Run

Outside of Bumgarner, Wheeler, Ryu and Strasburg my overall forecasts, and the general consensus for most on this board, are really close to what was projected there.

To use FG forecasts, Sox could sign: Wheeler - 4 years, 80 million (they project 68 million) JD - 3 years 77 million Grandal - 4 years 70 million Smith - 3 years 36 million Betances - 1 year 12 million Those 5 players combined would cost just over what they offered manny in guaranteed dollars - 275 million for an average AAV of 18.333 million. If the Sox made the above acquisitions and no more - maybe a Rich Hill for 8 million too? - they would be adding 91 million putting them around 140-150 with abreu.

Seems like I'm high on the top 4 starters but about the same on the position players as fangraphs piece today. Kiley and I had near identical contracts for the first few bats like Donaldson and Grandal. Maybe I'm overvaluing the arms but from what I see the pitchers have been more likely - by 41% of FA signings - to be overpaid based on market forecasts than position players; whom are much more projectable. I'd actually be really interested in Bumgarner at the forecasted rate, even though I'm not that interested in general. His 4.51 FIP away from san fran is really scary. Kiley has wheeler at 4 years 68 million. I'll take the over for whatever kiley would like. If kileys forecasts are within reason the sox should be salivating at the prices and should be all In.

Only excuse I can think of is the Sox valued the player they got back more than a $250k player in IFA. Being 23 at low A and bad isn't really a glowing endorsement though so I'm going to say that's BS.

If they weren't spending the money and didn't like anyone, whatever honesty. It's cheap, for sure, but if they're penny pinching that pool to maximize the mlb pool then fine... if that's the mental gymnastics Hahn has to play to maximize what he had to spend it's fine but embarrassing as well.

The Yankees will not and cannot move Stanton's contract; I am not sure why people continue to talk about that.

Soto is a machine.

80 pitches. Everyone looked uncomfortable. Bad call from ump caused the walk. A singular mistake to rendon. Managers too quick with the hook these days. They weren't as bad this post season as last, but still bad.

Wow, que it up! Nostradamus

I get it, but I leave greinke in.

Wolf just called that a ball for Scherzer with two strikes the inning before.

Nothing would be more enjoyable for me than Roberto Osuna blowing the World Series. I wouldn't take Greinke out until he gave up a run the way he's going.

It was 1 pitch. The first one was a strike it was just caught poorly. Second one was outside but Wolf hasn't missed much.

You're right on Hamels - 2 years, 30 million is my new price. I actually think I'm valuing Puig too high more than likely.

So, they send him down and he absolutely dominates... they're going to hold him down through June when they had already determined he was ready prior to his injury? Maybe, but I find it unlikely.

I didn't decipher his comments the same way you did.

Teheran is awful.

You can monitor innings at the big league level - it's not "easier to do" in the minors. That's a BS excuse. He may start in the minors because his command isn't all the way back; that's a valid excuse.

Yeah, fucked.

Well no. No one is walking in and saying "my client is better than Samardzija who signed for this." Markets are different year to year. Abreu can't say, well I'm better than Pujols who signed for this 6 years ago.

Don't think Kopechs is a guy's who's service time you can now fuck with after you already said he was up to stay prior to his injury. If he's performing he'll be up imo.

You cant judge the market vs bad contracts. Odorizzi isn't coming off a better situation than Keuchel was and Keuchel got nothing. It's not hard to imagine that Odorizzi will sit out there for a long time as he isn't a main target of anyone - more of a fall back plan.

This is something that entertains me every off season and I like seeing how accurately salaries can be predicted. Fans the past few years have over valued the market. Let's see how accurate everyone can be. Here is a list of the top 2020 free agents. Here are the top 25: Cole - 7 years, 250 million Rendon - 8 years, 255 million Stras - 6 years, 220 million Bumgarner - 6 years, 175 million Chapman - 4 years 60 million JD Martinez - 4 years, 90 million Ryu - 4 years, 85 million Donaldson - 3 years, 65 million Wheeler - 5 years, 125 million Ozuna - 4 years, 85 million Grandal - 4 years, 70 million Odorizzi - 4 years, 60 million Hamels - 4 years, 65 million Didi - 5 years, 68 million Keuchel - 3 years, 50 million Castellanos - 5 years, 80 million Miley - 2 years, 25 million Encarnacion - 1 year, 19 million Moustakas - 2 years, 38 million Puig - 3 years, 45 million Will Smith - 4 years, 48 million Will Harris - 3 years, 30 million Betances - 2 years, 16 million Roark - 1 year, 13 million Pineda 1 year, 11 million

I don't think Odorizzi touches anywhere near 100 million. Odorizzi will sign for 4 years 60 million.

Scherzer is one of 2 pitchers in 50 years who have had a career trajectory like his. Expecting that from anyone else is crazy - even if I am high on Wheeler. Scherzer is a freak of nature- his game has matured like wine. That isn't the norm and should never be expected.