Look at Ray Ray Run

Miami cleared that space after those players had opted out and became free agents. They also did not sign bosh, wade and lebron to max contracts. Those players agreed to take less to play together. Again, these things are nothing alike. That said, baseball would possibly argue this is player tampering.

Sure, so name me one team that has ever been caught doing this. The only tampering you see in the MLB is players saying a certain guy would look good as their teammates (which is a laughable claim of tampering), and Joe Maddon to the Cubs. There has not even been an investigation into the "tampering" that is being claimed as likely in this thread; not one. So either all these teams have done an incredible job at hiding this entire aspect of negotiations - meaning MLB teams have willingly given Agents more power than the CBA negotiated for them - because we've never even had a case brought forward for it. Teams just publicly saying they like a player who is under contract - or even being complimentary of said player - is a tampering violation. Teams directly discussing compensation while under contract with another team? Significantly worse than the above.

Players talking amongst themselves to say they'll play together as friends is not tampering between agents and teams. In fact, it's really hard to claim it's against the rules. Every team in the nba cleared space for that off season. Basketball is also a capped sport which makes it no where near similar to baseball. The thing you pointed to above is nothing like Boras calling the sox and saying "we'll opt out if you tell me you'll offer this much for JD."

Just like anything in the financial world, I think the majority are willing to push the limits of the law but there are very firm red lines that the vast majority would never pass. Obviously in a league in which an executive hacked and stole information from another organization, anything is possible. I would also say its extremely unlikely, and given Boras' status in the game I'd error on the side of Boras not pushing the limits beyond the gray areas of negotiating as the risk for him simply is not worth the reward.

Why do you think JD Martinez is different than the countless other players who have opted out blind? Why do you think scott Boras would risk his career for JD martinez but not Dallas Keuchel - whom he screwed last year? Again, I dont think people realize the severity of the situation you are insinuating Boras is participating in.

My theory is scott boras, again, is not risking his agency and license in the name of JD martinez of opting out. Why you think he is, I will never know. Maybe scott knows a team is interested In the position but he certainly has no idea what the dollar figures are.

No franchise is participating in agent led tampering - they put their own organization at risk all in the name of helping out Scott Boras. No one is doing that.

So your theory is Scott Boras is risking his license and entire agency in order to guarantee the correct decision in regards to one client opting out? There's no chance he is contacting teams while JD is still under contract with a team. Boras' has had clients opt out who went on to not make the same amount as the qualifying offer. It's a part of the risk. He is analyzing the market and determining how much he can get out of everyone. The reason he is waiting until the last minute to opt out is because everyone waits until the last day to opt out because there's no point in opting out a day earlier as contracts aren't going to be signed today anyway.

This guy drives me nuts: Josh Nelson‏ @soxmachine_josh FollowFollow @soxmachine_josh More Josh Nelson Retweeted Soxsupporter I get that thinking. Where I push back is that if Rick Hahn was comfortable giving Manny Machado 8 years, $250 million last year (debatable), then he should be able to convince his bosses to commit $140 million to bring in J.D. Martinez and Yasmani Grandal. #Moneywillbespent What is "debatable" about that? It's literally what the offer was? This guy will put a negative spin to anything and everything. The outcome was already negative; why spin some absurd conspiracy theory that the Sox never wanted to give him that much money?

I have their projections vs actual since 2014. In general they were short on mid-tier arms, high on corner outfielders (puig resonates loudly this year as being a bit aggressive as I feel mine is as well) and high on mid tier bats and pretty spot on at the top.

Yes. I like Wheeler - at this price - more than Stras at his price. I'd take Cole obviously over him, but it's hard to beat that ceiling with his price. I've been a huge Wheeler fan for the past two years. I worry a bit about a sharp cliff because his fastball is so effective and reliant on velocity, but it would be hard not to get excited about the signing. I'd like to get a look inside the White Sox analytic department - would love to see how archaic or not they are. I imagine I wouldn't be blown away which sucks, but it would be interesting just to see their expected market numbers.

Gotcha, my apologies.

Great spin rate on his offspeed with an electric elevated 4 seamer - guy was built for Houston.

According to fWAR, Wheeler has been the 9th best starter in baseball since the start of 2018; I'd say that's TOR talent.

I think it's very possible he becomes a TOR starter. It's also possible his shoulder gives out and you only get 2 years out of him. Theres risk but his ceiling is certainly that of a TOR arm. I wouldnt be shocked to see Houston in on him.

You're citing this while also citing FG's as the barometer setter - FG's did not have manny exceeding 275 million.

I mean, not really. Kiley projected Corbin at 5 years 90 million and he got 6 years 140 million.

Kiley literally goes on to say in his piece that of all the starters available, the only one he views as capable of outperforming Cole and Stras next year Is wheeler. Wheelers injury history is what he believes will suppress his market.

Yeah, I was too high for Stras. I like their number better than mine for sure.

Lol the Athletic should find someone different to do these projections if this is real.

How? I literally adjusted my Hamels number in this thread to 2 years 30 million and they project 2 years 28 million. Keuchel I had a 3 years 50 million and they projected 3 years 45 - you're certainly holding me to a high standard if that's not close. Abreu I didn't project. Gregorius, I gave 2 more years because of his age but the values were similar - 3 years 48 is similar to 5 years 68.

Stuff rarely gets done before the winter meetings

Outside of Bumgarner, Wheeler, Ryu and Strasburg my overall forecasts, and the general consensus for most on this board, are really close to what was projected there.

To use FG forecasts, Sox could sign: Wheeler - 4 years, 80 million (they project 68 million) JD - 3 years 77 million Grandal - 4 years 70 million Smith - 3 years 36 million Betances - 1 year 12 million Those 5 players combined would cost just over what they offered manny in guaranteed dollars - 275 million for an average AAV of 18.333 million. If the Sox made the above acquisitions and no more - maybe a Rich Hill for 8 million too? - they would be adding 91 million putting them around 140-150 with abreu.

Seems like I'm high on the top 4 starters but about the same on the position players as fangraphs piece today. Kiley and I had near identical contracts for the first few bats like Donaldson and Grandal. Maybe I'm overvaluing the arms but from what I see the pitchers have been more likely - by 41% of FA signings - to be overpaid based on market forecasts than position players; whom are much more projectable. I'd actually be really interested in Bumgarner at the forecasted rate, even though I'm not that interested in general. His 4.51 FIP away from san fran is really scary. Kiley has wheeler at 4 years 68 million. I'll take the over for whatever kiley would like. If kileys forecasts are within reason the sox should be salivating at the prices and should be all In.