Look at Ray Ray Run

Actions speak louder than words or lineage when it comes to Hotetler.

Yes, to me Vaughn is the clear cut #2 prospect in this draft, but Adley has that catcher risked attached to him which always worries me. Still, I think they are clearly above the rest.

The hilarious thing is Buster was better than Rutschman but somehow Buster fell in the draft a little; not much. Wieters was always overrated. The concern with Adley is that he is not MLB ready as Buster; Buster was a better catcher despite only playing it for 2 years as well. That development time is concerning for any catcher. Catching is so difficult to quantify, and offensive skills diminish faster than any other position. Catchers take longer to develop... Wieters being a switch hitter made him no better.

ding ding ding

I'm not sure anyone is stating that Vaughn's floor is a 1000 OPS. His floor is around an 850 OPS imo, but I am high on Vaughn and a big believer in his outcomes. I've never seen college production like this with the new bats.

Vaughn a better hit tool than Bryant and Vaughn's numbers are actually better considering that he played in the Pac-12 and Bryant played in the WCC. You cant really use Frank's college numbers as a comparison because Frank got to use the old bats. If Vaughn was using the old bats he'd have like a 1600 ops.

There are 20 hitters in MLB right now that are right around 400 or more. I understand your reluctance but this is also the problem scouts are having... that's where Vaughn projects and it's up to the person on whether they want to accept that or not.

If Vaughn develops as expected, he's slashing 300/420/550+.

Yes, but it won't work. Vaughn makes Hoskins look like Rickey Henderson defensively when it comes to athleticism. Vaughn just isn't a great athlete despite having an incredible and athletic swing.

The guy has 85 XBH's in 156 college games. ? People didn't think that would happen with the new bats. Adley has been an AMAZING college player and hitter.. and he has 70 in 180 games.

Vaughn will not be able to move from first base.

His hit tool grades higher than every power hitting prospect not named Vlad Jr.

Standard normalization of college stats based on key rates - similarly to what ZIPS would do. The article actually discusses how Vaughn has been a nightmare for analytics people because he falls outside of the SD for every college hitter in the system... so when you project his outcomes by using a standard college/mlb statistical regression you get the numbers above... (I'm sure they vary based on analysis) and if you heavily weight BB% (which in Vaughns case you should because he's so high on the spectrum that his college walk numbers actually do help us project his MLB outcomes) You actually bump those numbers up to: 254/378/514 Most people working the analytical baseball world will have a hard time accepting that slash line for someone who has never left college. Hence why teams are searching for reasons to discredit the number and opposed to accepting it. Vaughn is a fucking animal.

I would take Frank Thomas over Francisco Lindor... also, this is a reach comparison imo. Abrams is raw, unpolished and has an immense amount of development to do to reach that level. Its certainly possible. Some people would argue that Vaughn is already one of the best hitters on the planet and will only develop further. If Vaughn didnt get any better, he projects around 248/365/510 right now as a big leaguer. Getting Vaughn to develop further into a top 5 hitter is much more likely based on his current production than getting a high school SS and developing him into a top 5 SS. It's not dumb or outrageous to compare Vaughn to HOF talent first baseman because by all accounts, through this age, he ranks better than the vast majority of them.

The question is... would you draft Frank Thomas with the 1st pick in the draft. The obvious answer is yes. Given that Vaughns ceiling is the best hitter in the world, I'd say the Frank Thomas ceiling and possibility is a valid comparison.

For the record I dont think this is accurate as it does not count Josh Donaldson for the Cubs.

While luck surely plays a significant factor in the $816M separating the Dodgers and White Sox in terms of Value Generated, it is telling that several of the organizations towards the bottom of our list have recently invested in many of the developmental tools the Dodgers and Astros have been using for years.

https://www.drivelinebaseball.com/2019/04/finding-star-nothing-luck-quantifying-effectiveness-mlb-player-development/

Yeah, just league adjusted.

It's all about leagues and parks in the minors. Robert's wRC+ after today is going to be around 170. Juan Soto's AA wRC+ was 171. In that park Robert is absolutely dominating.

Didnt start playing baseball until his junior year of high school. Wowser.

Trejyn Fletcher. If Fletcher had grew up in Florida and played baseball year round, he'd have a chance of being a top 5 pick. He's had limited reps, limited people have seen him, and his hit tool is a bit raw... but his tools, yeesh. 6.6 60, 93 mph fb, 95 mph ev, 81 mph bat speed, 90 mph from the outfield. Huge power. Great elite athlete and he reclassed to 2019 and is young.

I participated in a lot of showcases as a kid. Area code games my senior year were in Minneapolis, and for some reason beyond my understanding there were a lot more scouts at Perfect Game showcase than at the area code games. I am guessing because northern kids probably are more volatile because they have so fewer reps. But, trout did open some eyes. It's why I'm so excited about Bryce Bush even with his struggle this year. Bryce Bush, being from Michigan, has HALF as many reps as a Cali or Florida kid... to be competing against those kids already shows a maturity level. He might never figure it out but he's much more likely to figure it out than someone who hasnt adjusted despite having twice as many reps. There's a ton of baseball talent in the north east and midwest - you just dont get to see it as often. Kelenic is actually a great example of how the game has evolved but you could argue it still hasnt corrected enough and that he was UNDERRATED because he was from Wisconsin. The game has definitely evolved enough that you'll never see another Mike trout situation again.

For some reason, it really bothers me that everyone blames player outcomes on coaching and the organization. Being great at player development may mean you turn a utility talent into an everyday player... or an above average player into a star. You get the most of the potential but you dont make the potential. You're not turning a minor leaguer into a ++ big league player. Talent dominates this world. Our insistence on trying to teach a difficult task (plate discipline) doesn't help either but these guys arent failing because the Sox are sabotaging them. It's likely they're failing because they didn't have the talent to begin with. Poor drafting is much more likely than poor development. It's not as if heinze was some development guru with Thomas, Ventura, Fernandez and etc. Those guys were just stupid talented and great picks. With all the external tools available away from the team at a players disposal these days, theres honestly no excuse for development.

If you want to find undervalued high school kids - take northern kids who have performed well on showcases but have limited reps. Mike trout was very clearly the best high school player in the country but because he was from Jersey, he got docked. This happens frequently with northern kids because they have half as many reps as the southern kids - this also means they still have much more room to grow.