mac9001

In the last couple of weeks it looks like both Call and Fisher regained some prospect shine. Call now spots a .878 OPS with a very respectable 15.3% BB% / 19.1% K%. Fisher is at .755 OPS with a lot of room for improvement on a 8.7% BB% / 32.5% K%. If Fisher can cut the K-rate down into the low 20s he'd probably be sitting on a .850+ OPS.

Guerrero is not struggling. Just having terrible luck. Coming into today he was sporting a 10.81 K/9, 2.39 BB/9, 0.34 HR/9, .420 BABIP, 51.7% LOB%, 27.8% LD%, 2.26 FIP. This is probably as good of 6 starts as he's ever had in his career, but it seems like just about everything being hit in play is finding a hole and at the worst possible times (high line drive rate and LOB%)

Blake Battenfield had himself a day. 8 IP, 3 H, 0 BB, 10 SO. ERA down to 1.34, he came into the day with a .209 BABIP and a 89.9% LOB%, so he's been fairly lucky. But still good to see a guy put up numbers.

1A) Kopech 1B) Hansen 3) Cease 4) Dunning 5) Stephens 6) Guerrero 7) Henzman 08) Adams 9) Puckett 10) Clarkin Flores/Lambert/McClure not far behind I don't think the gap between Kopech and Hansen is that wide. I still have some doubts on Kopech's and Cease's command at the big league level. Clarkin is hanging on by a thread.

Let's not forget the rather long list of depth we have across the entire org in terms of starting pitching. There's a good chance someone outside the blue chip list sticks in the rotation. I was hoping Guerrero/Stephens would be pitching in Charlotte by now with a plan to get them some major league starts before guys like Kopech/Hansen/Dunning are ready for the show. I wouldn't rush any of the blue chip guys, but start throwing the second tier guys to the sharks to see if they can swim.

Not a lot of love for Stephens or Guerrero but both are off to great starts again. Stephens: 8.55 K/9, 2.41 BB/9, .358 BABIP, 2.99 FIP Guerrero: 10.94 K/9, 2.39 BB/9, .420 BABIP, 2.29 FIP I like what I'm seeing from Lambert, but it's hard to make a case he's the next in line after the big 4 when Stephens/Guerrero are doing quite well a level above. There's absolutely no reason there's guys should still be in AA while we throw absolute trash out to pitch in Charlotte.

I'm convinced Zavala has elite exit velocity. I've seen him just absolutely destroy baseballs.

Seems like every time I look at a box score Blake Hickman strikes out the side.

I'd fairly optimistic with all our OFers except for Rutherford. If we had statcast data I'd imagine his exit velocity would be pathetically low.

The likelihood of Fisher developing into a quality OF are pretty slim. If we're taking bets I'd put more money on Booker improving offensively then Fisher being a passable defender at the ML level. If Fisher was mashing the ball at AA right now I'm still not sure he profiles as being adequate enough in the field to take away development time from others in the system. The best case scenario on Fisher is still fairly underwhelming.

We definitely need to throw some guys into the deep end and hope they can swim in Charlotte. Our average age might be the same between our ML/AAA clubs. I'm personally not a fan of keeping guys in the low minors once they show acceptable competence. You're better off dealing with adversary in AA than crushing it in low A ball.

Just to be clear I'm not making the case that he's a better prospect than Eloy right now. Eloy's offensive floor is so high it's hard to argue ranking him anywhere other than #1. But his profile is likely closer to someone like JD Martinez than a true franchise player like Trout. Basabe has a super low floor with high bust potential, but he an excellent athlete. He has the athletic ability to be a really good defensive CF. He has high end speed that has already demonstrated the ability to steal bags. While it's only a month, it's still a solid month with a very respectable walk rate, moderate k-rate and decent pop. If this month is a reflection of his true hitting ability his long term peak potential is now probably a 6+ WAR player. It's perfectly understandable to be skeptical with such a low sample size of success. But there's a completely different (and fairly unique) range of peak potential when you have the intangibles Basabe possesses. It's the same reason why Moncada was the top prospect in baseball, he has 10 WAR peak potential. You need a unique set of intangibles to have type of potential. The reality on a guy like Eloy is his value on defensive/speed is likely to diminish at the major league level over his current projections, which limits his peak potential to something closer to a 5-6 WAR guy. While the odds are against Basabe, give me three more months of this production and it makes his case for elite prospect status a lot easier to make. Just to add one more clarification. I don't necessarily think he will be on some of these top 100 publications, just that he should be. If he continues to produce at this level.

If his OPS is north of 1.000 and his ISO is still above .300 in mid June there's no way he's not top 50. The ability to play CF at the big league level with legit offensive potential is a rare commodity. His contact rate and power appear to be sustainable. Robert still needs to prove he can handle CF before his high prospect status is justified and Eloy will need to mash as he's likely to be WAR negative in the field and on the base paths. Hayward was a 5 WAR player mostly due to defense and base running and he did that playing RF. Unless Eloy hits 50 bombs per year a speedy quality CF is still likely to be move valuable.

If Adolfo can improve his K-rate he'd be a legit top 100 prospect. I'm still worried his number will regress significantly if he can't bring the K-rate down. Basabe I would imagine has probably made the biggest leap so far among the top 30. If he keeps this up you can make the case for him being our most valuable position prospect. While I'm convinced Eloy will mash with the bat I'm still not entirely sold on his plate disciple and he'll be at best net neutral on defense and speed. Basabe has the potential to provide above average value at a premium position on both defense and speed. If he keeps this up at a minimum he's a top 50 prospect by mid year.

Kopech getting hit around a bit so far. I gotta say, I love how fast he works. Just catch's and throws.

Agree with everything but the Manchado part. Our payroll will be pitiful and Manchado fits even the most pessimistic prognosis of the rebuild. I'm not expecting them to compete next year, but I sure as hell expect them to at least throw some money around to try and jump start this thing.

Luis Martinez with another solid outing. They need to give him a legit shot at starting.

I don't think Giolito has thrown a single breaking ball for a strike this year. As poor as his fastball command has been today it's surprising he isn't getting totally lit up.

QUOTE (Jake @ Apr 7, 2018 -> 01:31 PM) Tricky thing with this can be when he's throwing the cutter that can look a lot like a slow fastball to the naked eye. Statcast differentiates between cutters, 2-seamers and 4-seamers. It's not identifying any of his pitches as a cutter which means there isn't sufficient movement for it to quality as a cutter. His first start his 4-seamer averaged at 91.4 (92.4 last year). His 2-seamer was at 90.5 (last year 91.7). Today he's below 90 on quite a few fastballs.

Giolito's fastball velocity has been very underwhelming so far, he's down probably another 2 MPH over even last year.

QUOTE (ChiSoxJon @ Apr 5, 2018 -> 10:59 PM) Thought it was low-mid 90's Just going off a couple tweets he was mostly throwing 2-seamers at 87-89, 4-seamer is 90+ but rarely thrown. I'm looking forward to seeing him on TV and it never hurts to be 6'7"so the velocity may play up if he has decent extension.

Promising start by McClure, but if his fastball sits in the upper 80s I don't see how that holds up over time.

They should just create a rule that says a pitcher can't leave the mound and a hitter can't leave the batter's box and in the event of an out the ball has to be immediately returned to the pitcher. No more throwing the ball around the diamond or the pitcher taking a stroll around the mound while a hitter gingerly strolls to the plate. Also no more timeouts. Other crazy ideas: Expand the strike zone to allow for higher strikes. Create an automated ball delivery system that pops balls out automatically to the pitcher after each throw(like an automated tee at the driving range). The catcher would just throw the ball away without getting up or having to throw it back. You can have ball boys collecting balls and add them back to the automated delivery system. This way if a pitcher really wants to push the pace they can throw a pitch and the second the pitch is delivered step on a push button to receive a new ball from a launcher on the mound. You can also use it to get rid of balls faster when the bases are empty. If the bases are empty and outfielder catches a ball he can just throw it into the stands while the pitcher is already getting set for the next pitch. Change the replay rules where there must be a coach's challenge to initiate a replay review and if if the challenger loses the team is charged an additional out. If all else fails create financial incentives to speed the game up. Bonuses for teams with shorter games, create a bonus pool that's distributed to players that incur the least amount of "dead" ball time.

i don't think there's a lot of value in taking it slow with guys like Guerrero or Stephens. I would have advocated taking it slower with guys like Kopech or Cease. But our 2nd tier guys should be pushed and if it's clear they can't cut it as a big league arm allow them to learn how to prepare to pitch out of the pen. Danish & Covey will likely never make another big league start, but there's a slim chance they might have a future career out of the pen. At this point it doesn't do them any service sending them out every 5 days to get hammered. I also don't understand how you can promote Clarkin or Puckett and leave Dunning in high-A ball.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Mar 28, 2018 -> 03:43 PM) They are cannon fodder. They are there until someone needs the spot, and then who cares. Might as well throw some of those innings to the guys we have at AA.