Chisoxfn

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Dec 9, 2010 -> 08:33 AM) I might end up being totally wrong on this, but no way that Freddy gets anything like that. You aren't. I'd be blown away if he got that.

QUOTE (Kalapse @ Dec 8, 2010 -> 11:44 PM) It's funny that you're moving toward the advanced metrics after fighting them for so long while I find myself moving further away from them (at least for the defensive metrics) after lauding the damn things. It is nice to see you appreciating the awesomeness that is Adam Dunn, though. After you rebelling against the Thome/Dunn type players for so long. You'll see me still b**** about Carlos Pena though. I can't appreciate the pure power if you don't hit at least a respectable average though, haha. I also think there is a place in the roster for these guys, however, if you had 9 players like Dunn/Reynolds/Pena (and I don't really want to put Dunn in that class cause offensively he's far more productive than the other two) that you'd have hard time winning despite the fact that your optimized lineups would churn out pretty ridiculous offensive runs per game numbers. I say that because I still see a lot of value in a hitters ability to hit against good pitchers and I think when you hit .200 you are more likely going to have a harder time getting a hit against an upper echelon pitcher or a good set-up guy/closer. And I think you are most likely to be in those sitautions in the post-season (when teams have 3 to 4 man rotations and in general the teams have far better pitchers) or in late/close game situations (when teams are using their premium relievers). But Dunn is definitely a great fit. I also have a hard time using some of the defensie metrics. I think they can provide decent value in large sample sizes and for certain positions but I still have issues with them and still have more trust in what a scout who covers a player or coach that watches a player every day thinks. I also feel that catchers are probably the hardest overall defensive position to judge. I say that because there are so many intangibles that go with calling a game and to me you can't just go by the pure differential in ERA between catcher A and B. Kalapse: I also completely agree with you on Paulie and I very much appreciate the little things he does (such as the throw to 2nd to turn the DP or just get the force out) and the marvelous job he does digging balls out.

I'd definitely look for the Sox to try and package Teahen for a reliever who has been good in the past, but is a little iffy with an iffy contract. And than for the other reliever, I wouldn't be surprised to see the franchise use Flowers or Viciedo as bait. If it is Flowers or Viciedo, I think we'd be talking about a young power arm. I still think the Sox might take a shot at Delcarmen and see if Coop can make his stuff work in our pen. He's got a nice arm but it sure as s*** hasn't worked out. Huge command issues. Not many hits allowed per inning pitch and a nice strikeout per inning ratio. But man, his WHIP's been bad each of the pats two years. Bill James certainly has an optimisic prediction for Delcarmen in 2011. Not sure where the hell he gets it from since there is nothing in any of his recent statistics which would indicate he's figured it out though. In fact, I can't see any statistical reasons anyone would go for Delcarmen (outside of his BAA). He is only attractive from the scouting standpoint since the raw tools are there.

QUOTE (Kalapse @ Dec 8, 2010 -> 11:30 PM) Holy crap, we have Jason referencing WAR, what in the hell is going on? Everyone's starting to notice that I've began using some of these fancy stats. Well, as long as they back my own eye test (if I've watched a decent amount of a player or enough of a player to have an opinion). They are clearly valuable tools of information. In no way am I on the same level as you or qwerty when it comes to the whole barrage of things, but I am pretty comfortable with a few of these fancy stats, haha.

QUOTE (3E8 @ Dec 8, 2010 -> 11:05 PM) He's remarkably consistent. He'll be between 3-3.5 if he never sees the field defensively. Since that's not gonna happen, 3 is a good projection. I will say this. I pretty much ignore the WAR factors for first basemen when it comes to defense. I realize Dunn is atrocious and it makes little sense for me to ignoring them for him specifically, but their are multiple first baseman who when I see their defensive WAR's it just doesn't pass or come close to my eye test. Dunn is not one of those guys (I know he stinks there and he does stink there), but I still have a hard time relying on that data set for 1st baseman. Same with catchers.

Crawford has career numbers of .300 avg and .330ish OBP with a sub .800 OPS. Part of his numbers are skewed downward due to his poor season two years ago, but man, this is a lot of dough for a 4-5 WAR replacement player at his prime. Really shows you the importance of developing from within and staying out of the FA market at times. The good thing is Crawford has shown no major health problems and is unlikely to have a high bust factor, but man, when you look past his freakish athletic build, he's just an above average player, nothing more.

How good is Carl Crawford? That is a question I have to ask. He is a freak athlete and a 5 tool player, but outside of basestealing he doesn't excel at one thing and I think he's going to be one of those guys that it will be hard to live up to that contract in the "fans" eyes. I say that because he won't win a batting title, won't hit 30 HR's, and won't have a .400+ OBP. He will play above average defense, unfortunately, is in the least valuable defensive position on the field (outside of 1B) in left field. He does steal bases well but in time those numbers will decrease as he gets older and wears down. I think teams that didn't get Crawford will be thankful, specifically the Angels, a few years down the road. However, their is no denying that is an all around above average player with little flaws. But a superstar, I don't quite think so. Overall this is a really bad contract.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Dec 8, 2010 -> 03:24 PM) I don't think the Sox view him as a starting pitcher long-term, and instead I think he was starting this year more to get him more innings so he can refine his pitches a bit better. It's harder to do that out of the bullpen. I also think, if all the hype about him is true, that he could be a mid-season call-up. Get him a little bit of experience against some more advanced hitters. His problem is he can be electric one day and be throwing a few MPH less and with less bite two days later. So not only does he struggle repeating his delivery, he struggles showing any sort of overall consistency in stuff.

QUOTE (ScottyDo @ Dec 8, 2010 -> 11:45 AM) The first base scene has gone in the following order this offseason: AGon to Boston Fielder rumors abound Konerko signs Pena signs Buzz about LaRoche I think someone mentioned that DLee was mentioned at some point outside of this board, but I can't confirm that. There's a descending order to that list, probably because that's how all of baseball sees these players' values. It's not homerism, it's just not. It started with Adam Dunn signing with the White Sox.

QUOTE (Princess Dye @ Dec 8, 2010 -> 11:39 AM) This is kind of on a tangent, but lets discuss JR and how he runs the team. For years my Cub fan friends wanted a crazy, old rich guy to own their team. JR definitely fits that bill. Last year we see he's willing to throw millions from out of nowhere at the last second to get Damon. But then we don't see that money get put into the team somewhere else before spring training. This year, they seem to be setting us up for one thing, and then suddenly they hike payroll up to record setting levels. Yes maybe some of that was emotion-driven, but it was still for a player coming off MVP candidacy. Maybe I'm naive but I basically don't worry about 2013 because we have one of those owners who (yes, sporadically) will just throw a bunch more $ at the problem. And this time it comes off a down year in attendance. What needs to improve is how KW sometimes spends that money, and thats an entirely different problem. Maybe that's why I don't care enough about 2013's $6M. That, and the fact that I can't (unlike others) assume D-Lee is going to find that pop he used to have. A lot of what you guys say makes sense, but that part of it you have to admit is hope-based. That he returns to '09 form. His 19 HR from '10: not enough. Jerry Reinsdorf is not a crazy rich old guy. He is very calculated in what he does. I think he is stretching things right now but he feels that the opportunity is their in this major market to make it work and turn in a profit. The business will probably take a loss, however, the Sox have continued to reinvest funds but at the same time have seen the franchise appreciate. I think Jerry knows that in his old age he wants to win and I'm guessing the rest of the ownership group does as well. They won't get crazy but I think at this point in time they felt these players were worth going "all in" for. What will happen with our bullpen, I don't know. But one thing about bullpens is they are much more of a crap shoot than offensive players. So with that said, I'm glad we invested our money in a guy that has been a relatively constent run producer throughout his career and I can hope that our young arms in the pen, along with Thornty, can pan out. If they don't, we can invest some money in the pen. My bigger concern to be quite frank is Peavy since we don't have a 5th starter as of now, especially if we are going with Sale in our pen. Plus, a healthy Jake Peavy (major if) makes this team a lot better.

QUOTE (IlliniKrush @ Dec 7, 2010 -> 05:09 PM) Party cancelled. On second thought, let me know, I'll bring Ashley, and you two can talk Iowa basketball. That will be a very short conversation..."Man those Hawkeyes sure stink, but this new fran guy seems to have a nice attitude and bring a fun up-tempo style. I gotta hope he can recruit though because his scheme won't work in the major conference without some talent". At least we beat Northern Iowa, haha. I think I'd focus on how much better our football team is than yours and even than my argument isn't as strong since my team choked like a ten cent hour on Saturdays.

I'm closing this because it doesn't belong here. If someone wants to re-create this topic in filabuster go right ahead.

QUOTE (iamshack @ Dec 8, 2010 -> 08:57 AM) You're astounded? I want JJ Putz as my damned closer. PK precluded that from happening. Stop acting like his kids would go hungry if he took 3/$30. And why should he take a ton less money? I'm just curious. And how do you know what he had offered? The current market environment certainly dictates that this was a more than fair contract.

Happy to have the captain back for what I believe is a very very fair deal. The deferred money really puts the present value of this contract in a very reasonable range, imo. Is it a total steal, no, but is it fair to keep a guy on the southside who is approaching historic numbers on the south side and still playing above average baseball, most certainly. In this market could Paulie have gotten more money and a bigger deal, I think so. Does that mean he should have taken a whole lot less to stay in Chicago, nope. He doesn't owe us that and he's a class guy that I will always root for and I'm glad to get to root for him for another few years in a Sox uniform.

QUOTE (iamshack @ Dec 8, 2010 -> 08:03 AM) The Cubs are committed to Carlos Pena for nothing in 2012 or 2013, or 2014-2019, for that matter. And he is a worse player than Paul Konerko.

QUOTE (jphat007 @ Dec 8, 2010 -> 07:55 AM) Nightengale broke it. He must have a really good source or two in the org. Nightengale has always had very good sources in the White Sox organization.

QUOTE (fathom @ Dec 7, 2010 -> 10:32 PM) Yes, but he's sacrificing a year on his deal for more salary. It's classic Boras, as he wants Pena to rebuild his reputation and be a free agent again soon. Usually when you do that because you actually have to prove yourself, you end up getting deals less than 10 million though. In this case, he's getting a whopper of a deal given that he's coming off a craptacular season.

Makes you wonder what DLee will get. Wowza.

QUOTE (iamshack @ Dec 7, 2010 -> 03:35 PM) Brooks in Tampa? Wasn't Nickerson the MLB their for a long time with Brooks an OLB? I at least thought Brooks played Briggs position for most of his career.

QUOTE (RockRaines @ Dec 7, 2010 -> 03:45 PM) You better believe DLEE is probably option B for KW, and he is thinking exactly what we are. If he is healthy, he is significantly better than Pena/LaRoche. Both of those guys aren't near as complete players as Lee. Plus we all know that Lee (and Paulie) are good leaders and well respected in the city.

All of you are nitpicking. The two are very similar players, what matters is what are their health's like right now. The past doesn't matter as much as we know that is similar. If we think both are at 100% for their age without any major hurdles than I'm just fine with Lee. If Lee has issues, than maybe we should give Konerko the money or go another way. LaRoche and Pena both have some issues if you put them in the same lineup as an Adam Dunn (I.e., low average and high strikeout numbers).

Horrible news Russ. My thoughts go out to you and your family.

QUOTE (DBAHO @ Dec 7, 2010 -> 03:03 PM) And Jeff will more than likely drink you under the table (as I found out one evening)..... But that is against you so it doesn't really count you crazy aussie.

I found out I might have a training to attend for work in Chicago. If I do, I'm in.

If Paulie wants to be the highest paid guy on the team, that is fine, but he'll have to be on another team. Heck, Peavy makes more than he does anyway and Buehrle was pretty close.