Kalapse

QUOTE (JRL @ Dec 17, 2015 -> 08:38 PM) Not really sure how Cespedes is more "dynamic and exciting" and a more "natural companion piece to Abreu in terms of teammates/camaraderie and marketing." Are you just trying to say that they are both Cuban? That would have been easier. Cespedes' defense, even as a corner outfielder (much less the center fielder you suggest he could competently be) has declined in recent seasons and Upton's has improved to the point where the metrics say they're about the same (Upton was actually slightly better in 2015, but only negligibly so). 200 ABs is not a significant sample size, especially when those ABs are randomly dispersed and not on a consistent basis. For any player we can pick out even the best of hitters we could go through all their ABs and find 200 of them over which they hit around 207. I'm not sure why Upton's 2015 performance against the AL should be viewed any differently, especially since he's a career 276 hitter vs the AL. For that matter I'm not sure why anyone's uncharacteristically good or bad performance vs the AL or NL specifically should be viewed differently than the result of randomness. People always cite those numbers, but is there some type of statistic I'm missing showing AL pitching to be, on the whole, substantially more difficult to hit against? Cespedes' clearly outlier 2015 season and his very good rookie year sandwiched 2 pretty unimpressive seasons. I'm an Upton guy but what metrics are you using to grade defense? By Both DRS and UZR Cespedes has actually improved in LF every year: 1, 4, 12, 15. By UZR: -3.6, 8, 10.1, 18.8. Neither DRS nor UZR has Upton anywhere near Cespedes last year with an 8 DRS and 2 UZR.

QUOTE (Knuckles @ Dec 16, 2015 -> 12:02 PM) Ken Rosenthal ‏@Ken_Rosenthal Immediate question: Why didn’t #Reds take #WhiteSox’s package instead of #Dodgers’? Rival execs think LAD did much better than CIN. Funny that the Sox and Dodgers both dealt prospects in the dame deal and what the Sox gave up is considered stronger, especially with 2 being position players.

Upton

QUOTE (BlackSox13 @ Dec 14, 2015 -> 11:26 PM) And Upton's OBP has been on a slow but steady decline since its peak in 2011 and has been below .350 the last two seasons. If fans want Upton that's fine, I get it but I'm not interested in a long term big money deal with him. I just don't think his performance will live up to the contract he signs which is why I'm open to other options. Can you make this argument without using straight OBP?

He could not sound more full of s***. I've heard a decent amount about this story and I'm curious to see where it'll go, I just can't see how this works out for Bowe.

QUOTE (WBWSF @ Dec 11, 2015 -> 03:56 PM) Am I the only White Sox fan that is glad the White Sox didn't give the type of money and contract length the Cubs did to Heyward, Zobrist and Lackey? I would have LOVED the Sox to have signed Heyward to that deal.

QUOTE (ptatc @ Dec 11, 2015 -> 02:19 PM) The other scenarios where it could a problem is an injury or if he truly enjoys the situation with chicago and maddon and decides he can live with 24 million per year. True, but that's the case with any big contract, those 8 years are guaranteed whether there's an opt out in there or not. The opt out is just an extra win-win for the player and team added to the typical big dollar deal, there's really no downside to it and plenty of upside.

QUOTE (shakes @ Dec 11, 2015 -> 02:00 PM) Opt outs are in favor of the player. If he regresses the team is stuck with the whole contract. And it depends on which defensive metrics you look at and the fact the CF is widely considered the more difficult defensive position. Not entirely. Barring something catastrophic the Cubs just signed Heyward to a 3 year, ~$70M contract. Sure there's obvious risk there but if Heyward just stays healthy and plays well the Cubs get his prime years for a reasonable salary and don't have to deal with the inevitable sunk cost of an aging outfielder 6 years from now.

Heyward's actually 8 months younger than Eaton.

That's a really solid contract, especially if it contains an opt out.

QUOTE (flavum @ Dec 11, 2015 -> 12:39 PM) A lot of jealous Sox fans here. They have a good team. Deal with it. There's nothing wrong with being jealous of what the Cubs are building.

QUOTE (Buehrle>Wood @ Dec 11, 2015 -> 12:36 PM) Twitter rumors of 31.5 aav. I'm at peace with this if that becomes true. The only way i'm doing that is if there's only 3 or maybe 4 guaranteed years on the deal. Even then it's gonna be tough to get surplus value out of that contract.

QUOTE (ChiSoxFanMike @ Dec 11, 2015 -> 12:27 PM) I'm not that upset over this honestly. Yeah, his defense is great but he has only 15 homer power. That's not worth $200 million in my mind. Elite defense, real good speed, solid bat, good walk rate, great K rate and the power potential is there as he enters his age 26 season. Plus without knowing the details, there's a chance this ends up being something like a 4 year, 80M-90M deal with the Cubs getting his full prime.

I'm not crazy about giving up a top 30 pick for a 30 year old Dexter Fowler, maybe if he were a better defender.

The Cubs have added so much WAR this offseason, just going based on Steamer projections: Zobrist 3.3 Castro 0.8 in 2015 Lackey 2.9 Rotating 5th starter: 1.2 in 2015 Heyward 4.7 Fowler 3.2 or Soler 0.1 in 2015

f***

QUOTE (Saufley @ Dec 10, 2015 -> 04:40 PM) 154 games, 13 HR, 60 RBI, 23 SB, .293 BA and a Gold Glove OF. Just wanted to take another look at Heyward's stats from last year. $200 mil. Wow!! I guess it truly is what the market is. Since 2013 Heyward is 13th in all of baseball in defensive WAR among all position players with at least 2000 INN (about 1.5 full seasons), sandwiched between Alcides Escobar and Billy Hamilton. The only outfielders ahead of him are centerfielders Carlos Gomez, Lorenzo Cain and Juan Lagares the next closest after Hamilton are AJ Pollock and Leonys Martin, the next OF comes in at 40th. Just focusing on rightfield and reducing it to 1000 INN to include more players, here's your enormous list positive DEF WAR RF: 39.3 Jason Heyward 21.0 Shane Victorino 11.9 Chris Denorfia 11.6 Geardo Parra 8.0 Ichico 3.8 Josh Reddick 1.5 Kole Calhoun 1.5 Daniel Nava RF with a 10+ DRS: 69 Jason Heyward 31 Gerardo Parra 27 Josh Reddick 19 Marlon Byrd 17 Ichiro 16 Jay Bruce 14 Yasiel Puig 13 Curtis Granderson RF with a 10+ UZR: 56.0 Jason Heyward 24.2 Gerardo Parra 20.1 Ichiro 19.4 Josh Reddick 16.2 Kole Calhoun 14.3 Hunter Pence ALL OF with a 30+ UZR: 59.2 Jason Heyward 51.7 Lorenzo Cain 47.7 Kevin Kiermaier 46.5 Juan Lagares 40.4 Alex Gordon 35.3 Billy Hamilton 35.2 Carlos Gomez 30.8 AJ Pollock 30.7 Yoenis Cespedes Someone described Heyward as a "good" defensive player or some such earlier in the thread, he is not merely good but ultra elite. Hence why the 32 year old Alex Gordon, who's of similar value offensively is going to get $100M+.

QUOTE (Hatchetman @ Dec 10, 2015 -> 01:38 PM) OK. Def WAR A. -12.2 B. -13.8 Garcia's career DEF WAR is -34.6. Lawrie's is 4.6 and that's with a -12.2 last year.

ZIPS projection for Lawrie with the Sox: 255/310/406, 21 2B, 15 HR, 98 OPS+, 1.8 WAR in 125 G

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Dec 9, 2015 -> 10:35 PM) We are talking about a 10 year deal, probably. Honestly, I'd do it. With a 3/4 year opt-out.

QUOTE (whtsoxfan @ Dec 9, 2015 -> 10:31 PM) Since this thread is about Lawrie in the first place who's #17 on the list? Could have fooled me! Still waiting for you to come up with some plausible excuse for Zobrist's horrendous outfield play in that clip! Rickey's rolling over in his grave!!!

QUOTE (whtsoxfan @ Dec 9, 2015 -> 10:03 PM) LOL youtube not career stats You're a joke, any ways back to the Sox, GO WHITE SOX Video doesn't lie. I'd love to see you defend Zobrist's loafing on that play, the only Athletic on the field with a sense of focus or urgency there was Lawrie.

QUOTE (kitekrazy @ Dec 9, 2015 -> 10:00 PM) Maybe history is the best teacher. How many of them benefited the Sox? It's not so much what they gave up but what they got and made a negative impact. Smarj and Swisher come to mind. Still looks great on paper but since it was Oakland does history prevail? An essential member of the World Series team?

QUOTE (whtsoxfan @ Dec 9, 2015 -> 09:58 PM) That's because you're wrong and haven't provided nothing to back nothing up! Game.Set.Match

QUOTE (shipps @ Dec 9, 2015 -> 09:53 PM) You muther f***er! You are being sarcastic! Never! I'm as f***ing forthright as they come.