CaliSoxFanViaSWside

I think I didnt make myself clear and it was a minor point of contention any . But in a previous post you put your own personal O/U at 75 wins. Btw best to use a number like 74.5 so you don't have any ties. But regardless . I take that 75 to mean that it's your prediction of the number of wins all things good or bad being equal so that you try to get an equal amount of bets on each side of the number. Thats almost 10 wins above the Vegas line of 65.5 so you are more bullish on the Sox than bookies are by a large margin. But you just lowered it to 70 wins so I took that 75 win total that was already bullish all things being equal and figured that now you were talking about extra extra bullish the win total would be significantly over .500 maybe 85-90 wins. Sox would have a lot more, HRs better starting pitching , higher OBP and better relief pitching for full seasons of guys instead of 2/3 , 1/2 or whatever. Maybe we just have a different definition of what the O/U means. Apparently you'd bet the over in Vegas but bet the under in your own O/U ?

You mentioned an awful lot of good things happening with the hitting and starting and relief pitching. If you already think the Sox are capable of 75 wins with only some of those things happening how is it they're barely above . 500 with a bunch of other good things happening ? Are they still trading Slater, Dominquez or perhaps Murakami because they are short term assets and creating a worse 2027 season that now relies on a Braden Montgomery, Hagen Smith, Schultz, Antonacci, Bonemer and if Cholowsky is drafted a quick developmental time line for him now that the core and the BP are more established ? I know I'm just extrapolating it out farther then you did to build a timeline but each successive year needs to have young player after young player succeed. Sooner later you have to spend to keep some players long term. And the international signing period is still a huge question mark until we can development some 16 year olds which may not happen for another 6 years . Tampa Bay as a model is a good start but they are well established doing what they do. Although they have come close , they never got the brass ring at their peak. Now theyre back in a bit of a dip while the money teams just buy their ways out of dips while Tampa Bay gets poached and loses their best people. The top of the pile usually buys a lot of pitching and drafts a lot of hitters. Without a spender owning the team its hard to sustain even limited success even with a strong foundation that develops players because it takes a lot of players to win year after year if you always have to trade away your best guys. Sucks to be stuck in neutral waiting on the new owner but until then would be nice to be above . 500 a few years in a row make the playoffs a year or 2 and still maintain and improve player development. Oh yeah squeeze in a new stadium too. I hope the Pope has a nice long reign.

I think Id rather fantasize that in a competive year others develop to fill high leversge BP roles like W.Gonzalez, Berroa or Paez. Or the starting pitching breaks out among those already with enough innings under their belts along with those position player hitting breakouts you mentioned and some defensive breakouts too from Baldwin along with an offensive side breakout too. The depth would be so much better with unexpected quality results . Maybe some of the other TJ guys besides Berroa can contribute too .

These alternate timelines are pure fantasy. Youre taking what turned out to be a great path for him and saying that another path could have produced the same result now that you know the final outcome. Crochet was not some dominant starting pitcher in college. He pitched more in relief than he did as a SP. His final year he only pitch 3 innings because he missed the opening 3 weeks of the season with a mild shoulder sprain finally made a start and then the season was wiped out by Covid. The Sox only drafted him because he had a big lefthanded arm . Scout were split between his potential as a 1 or 2 starter but knew the high probability to be a high leverage reliever . The problem with the fan fantasy is you're projecting almost every decision made ending up best case scenario and linear development where everything goes right. You nor anyone else explains that part of their "argument". It just magically happens. Whenever I see this opinion ( not just by you) I never see a fan give me a timeline of this fantasy such as Crochet spends his 1st 3 years developing in the minors building up his arm and innings and does not ever need TJ surgery and is never hurt or is it he still needs TJ surgery but when does it happen ? He never has shoulder sprains or forearm tightness or mechanical issues ? What year does TJ happen ,his 1st 2nd or 3rd year in the minors ? Does his body then handle the surgery and rehab the same way it did after he was named opening day starter in 2024 ? Does he develop the cutter in the minors without Bannister's help since Getz didnt hire Bannister til Sept. 22, 2023. Or does the rebuild never happen because this magical version of Crochet result in the 1st rebuild having sustained success ? Or maybe he's still in the minors developing when the 1st rebuild collapses. When does he succeed as a starting pitcher ? Is it still in 2024 ? So they dont trade him because now he has 5 more years of eligibility only now there's no Teel , Braden M., Meidroth,W. Gonzalez. So do we then not end up with the 1:1 pick ? How does his presence alter our other draft picks ? These fan fiction scenarios of a perfectly linear development with every decision along the way turning out with the maximum amount of service time with Crochet ending up the same dominant pitcher is just silly. You might as well write baseball comic books with multi-verses where every Sox player is a super hero.

Or something went very right with Newcombe as a SP. Not likely at his age given upside wishcasting is easier with guys in their mid 20's, but just giving another version.

I think Getz has done a great job not rushing guys. Schultz, Hagen,Braden, Oppor should all get more minor league time. It wouldn't surprise me if McDougal gets 1st crack at the 26 as a starter . Vasil, Newcombe,Burke, Cannon , maybe Davitt in the mix for starting the season in the rotation . Highly doubtful any rookie pitcher makes starts unless its Paez and I expect Thorpe, Sandlin or Davitt will get starts before Hagen, Schultz or Oppor . Depends on how Thorpe's AAA rehab assignment goes. With Thorpe you get the feeling he could dominate the minors in his sleep before he got hurt more than guys like Schultz and Hagen who have better stuff. If either one of them finds very effective 3 pitches with command is when we see Crochet like dominance. Command though is very elusive.

I think its easy to generalize about the spending and youre probably right but Im not talking about a trend. I'm talking about this specific year before the strike . It's a few days before pitchers and catchers report. While I havent invested the time to compare FA signings last year to this year there seems to be a lot more "name" players still unsigned. People talked about why Murakami got what he got and why it was a good signing. If I told any Sox fan he'd 49 bombs this year like Suarez did last year they'd be ecstatic. Suarez , who had a 3.8 fWAR also, signed for 1 year $15M . I realize. he's coming up on his age 35 season . I also reslize his OBP was .298 his wRC+ was 125 and SLG .526 . Suarez must be thinking wtf do I have to do to get paid after that kind of season. Youd think someone wouldve happily given Suarez 2 yrs $40M which was basically what Murakami got counting the posting fee.

Statcast has some flaws too. It still needs a decent sample size. We often just look at the numbers but forget about how big the sample is they are grading. I used to constantly tell people that despite Andrew Vaughn's adequate LF rating his 1st year in the OF that he was much too slow for that assessment to mean anything going forward. He caught what he was supposed to catch and didnt botch fielding hits. But there is batted ball luck for fielders too and he didn't get a lot of difficult chances and once the sample size got bigger we'd get a more accurate read. And we did. No one with Baldwin's speed should get a 4 out of 100 in Range like we see on Baseball Savant. We saw him look bad on some routine stuff. Reading flyballs off the bat takes time. Doesnt seem like he's spent too much time in the OF in his life. If his bat develops like we saw in the 2nd half of the season and the reps improve his range his upside is high 700 or low 800 OPS. At that point it'll be his defense that determines how high his WAR can get. I don't think his arm will rack up assists so he'll have to improve his defensive fundamentals. If everything works out he's our future Leftfielder with Braden M. in RF. Venable has already said to keep an eye on Baldwin early in the season at Soxfest.

If anything can be gleaned from the owners actions this off season they're not in a middle tier spending mood . Plenty of guys not getting contracts as big as expected. Could be bracing for an extended lock out.

He was burning service time while injured with TJ surgery. He was also injured frequently before TJ surgery. TJ surgery might've turned his career around. Recovery workouts turned him into a beast. He was just bigger and stronger when he had his unexpected breakout. The path he eventually got on couldn't have worked out much better for him. There's no way to predict if alternate paths get him to how good he is now any earlier.

Theres 2 for sure Acuna and Baldwin. You still have Kelenic, Pereira, Hill and Peters also.

He's Batman.

And he will get at least 1 HBP.

I wonder what the Dodgers would give up for Skubal ?

🤣 It's not like a hot tub jet or a firehose.

So the scuttlebutt's basically he's not a good dude.

Kind of late in the game to be waiting on Valdez. Too many guys, not enough suitors with good offers for a lot of them. Just look at what Suarez had to take and he hit 49 bombs last year. Lots of lower contracts coming for teams with money left to spend.

When Veneable was asked about a breakout guy he said Baldwin. He also loves Vargas as a clubhouse/great team mate guy.

Technically ,if you pay attention to Lip, it'll be his son's selling the team after JR passes away. And I have always believed that to be true based on what @Lip Man 1 has said. Ishbia is suppossed to get controlling interest between 2029 and 2034. What happens if JR is still around after the 2034 season ends ? He'd be well into his 98th year by that point. And what if his sons decide not to sell the Sox ?

That's a good idea. Would make. it convenient to check. I could actully go to his home games if I really wanted to.

Honestly the lengths some these guys go through to bash Getz or people hired by him is borderline libel or slander and malicious . The other one being that Bannister/Katz were somehow responsible for all the TJ surgeries last year. Only on Soxtalk do you find these things.

The things wrong with it at the time was that once it failed , which was only 6 months when the rebuild started , keeping Tatis likely happens. Then there's Preller vs Hahn. Preller was a guy who understood the value of an athletic SS especially one with bloodlines and Hahn was not if you look at his drafts after the rebuild started. But the Sox were clueless to what other GMs already knew. In the drafts since Getz 1st year as Asst. GM to now 3 of the 5 top picks have been SS and likely will be 4 out of 6 next year. I know that's the difference between Hostetler and Shirley but it's also a difference in organization philosophy that's continued under Getz. I doubt Hostetler or Shirley had complete autonomy on draft day . It seems more likely to me that Hahn or KW were more likely to overule a decision than Getz is based on Getz allowing more people a voice in the process. Getz didnt hire Shirley but he's hired more people concerned with data, signing ,drafting & development.

And before that in Dec 2014 traded Semien and Bassitt for 1 year of Samardzija. Then after Samardzija failed they doubled down with Tatis for Shield in June 2016. Then a mere 6 months years later figured maybe we wouldve been better off not trading our youth for pitchers. So they rebuild. But instead of selling off our good players for SS's or drafting more HS players ,who did we get ? Cease, Eloy, Moncada, Kopech, Vaughn, Burger, Collins, Madrigal. Not a lot of athletes in that group. 2020 was Crochet. It wasnt until 2021 that they took Montgomery which was Getz 1st year as Asst. GM .

The difference between the ladt rebuild and this one is drastic. The last one the buzz phrase was "mired in mediocrity". Fans understood that and saw the logic that being stuck in the middle isnt good. But that rebuild collasped.It was a house of cards built on an extremely unstable foundation . It wobbled for 1 .500 season before it imploded completely. Bam ! right back in another rebuild. No "sustained success" the other buzzwords of a better future. Fan were in shock. Recovery is slow and also wobbly . Injuries , sophomore slumps, FA implosions are all possibilties when dealing with a wide range of possible outcomes. Sure Getz has tried to move up from dumpster diving to trusting those he hired and his vision to keep taking steps forward but ss we learned last time counting on upside progresd is a sliperry slope without depth. I think that why Getz doesnt trade Sosa , Quero or Taylor like some fans suggest . He's still building depth and he doesnt want to trade off a Semien or a Tatis Jr. There still maybe snother trade coming. He could trade Sosa tomorrow for all I know. But there are an awful lot of FA SP still on the market. Maybe there's someone else he's got his eye on. Don't think its possible but there would be an uproar if they could snag Verlander even at his advanced age.

But all diehards dig into everything anyway. Look at how many people post about who gets DFA'd from the bottom of the 40 man . We' re not the only fans who do that . Afterall it is a rebuild and yeah we're pissdd about how that last rebuild turned so bad so fast that we changed our attitudes about this rebuild completely from the last one. But anyway I like the way you explained it much better this time .