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Everything posted by CaliSoxFanViaSWside
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True .I had looked at Chase's MiLB numbers and it still all came back to plate approach and walks ,and the consistent steadily high OBP and better fielding though it is only slighly above average . Both show that there is more than one way to skin a cat. Both made it to the majors. Chase because of great approach which resulted in decent but not powerful hitting stats yearly. Sosa because he'd have a down year then adjust so ,as we often hear with prospects, his path was not linear. Projection systems are less tolerant of the inconsistenies of non linear development.
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Im conflicted here.Sosa wasn't that bad defensibly at 2nd base. He was far from the top defender there but so was Chase. They had almost the same fWAR. Sosa slightly higher 1.4 to 1.3 for Chase .WAR and projection system hate Sosa because of the poor chase rate ,low walk rate and defense. fWAR had Sosa slightly negative in offensive and more negative in defensive WAR but somehow his overall WAR was 1.4. The projection models are much kinder to Meidroth than perhaps any other Sox player as far as projected WAR. Not sure why that is. Maybe walk rate, chase rate and defense are more steady stats that make it easier for a counting stat like WAR to incrementally move forward because a good approach is a key to being a better hitter. You might not be able to say Sosa is a professional hitter because of his approach but he is a pretty good hitter. WAR and projection models look at Sosa and basically say we don't understand why he and Meidroth had similar WAR but it won't happen again. Its like the single best contact you can make doesnt even count as much as a walk.
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SoxMachine Article on Chris Getz's Vision
CaliSoxFanViaSWside replied to WestEddy's topic in Pale Hose Talk
I did actually acknowledge the present by saying the future is here already. 😁 -
SoxMachine Article on Chris Getz's Vision
CaliSoxFanViaSWside replied to WestEddy's topic in Pale Hose Talk
JR is still here and not spending but the team is moving forward regardless. The starting pitching could be stacked by next year with some prospect luck. Braden Montgomery , Antonacci, & 2026 1:1 could all make sooner than expected impact. Grant Taylor, McDougal, H. Smith, Schultz, & S. Smith could all be pitching in the starting rotation. And there could be a surprise or 2. That's what's exciting about the future. It's known to a degree but unknown,too. Can't hurt to have the Pope aboard. Has JR talked at all about the Pope ? I know he's not Catholic but you'd think he'd at least acknowledge the most famous Sox fan in the world. I know they have said and done supportive things re: the Pope that had JR's blessing but I dont recall any JR quotes about it. -
SoxMachine Article on Chris Getz's Vision
CaliSoxFanViaSWside replied to WestEddy's topic in Pale Hose Talk
Ancient history. Time to stop looking backwards The future is here. -
SoxMachine Article on Chris Getz's Vision
CaliSoxFanViaSWside replied to WestEddy's topic in Pale Hose Talk
Fans dig the long ball. Sox fans will come Caulfield of Broken Dreams. -
SoxMachine Article on Chris Getz's Vision
CaliSoxFanViaSWside replied to WestEddy's topic in Pale Hose Talk
I often hear that it sucks for fans that you can't hang onto players.But that fantasy went out the window 50 years ago when Free Agency started. You can extend players before they become really good but we saw the downside of that. The Dodgers are actually good at finding and developing talent despite signing many great and very expensive free agents and winning a lot of games every year. You want to build and then continue to expand the foundation in the remaining Reinsdorf years when money for the roster is scarce. More money could show up depending on the CBA, and unexpected success of the team or if Colson Montgomery and Murakami both start the 1st couple of months on a 40 HR pace and attendance spikes up. By the time Ishbia takes over I think the Sox will be in a better place to emulate small market development teams that they have hired from like the Brewers and Tampa pay while Ishbia outspends at least the other teams in the division on a regular basis with a chance to even spend on a level the Sox have never been. For the next couple of years we'll see if the good start in 2025 for the hitting positional player prospects can continue while they work in the high profile pitching prospects that got a huge boost from nabbing Shane Smith in the Rule 5 and Tanner McDougal's big jump last year. Then Grant Taylor could move into the rotation next year if this year goes according to plan as can McDougal or maybe even half or more of this year. We need McDougal type leaps from Hagen Smith and Noah Schultz . Taylor could be a beast this year after just screwing around with a 2 seamer and finding out he could get a lot of movement on it. If McDougal can show he can command his pitches his stuff is outstanding. He is actually the closest to moving into the rotation. Christian Oppor also had a nice jump last year. Not sure where he starts the season, maybe Birmingham. He needs to find a 3rd pitch that works for him. He's got a good FB and changeup. Sweeper/Slider could be it. McDougal (2021),Oppor (2023) and Sam Antonacci (2024) were all 5th Round picks so Sox have been finding value other than the 1st round. Just have to wait to see where it goes. But if you've been watching ST games you can see the high talent level of Antonacci and McDougal. -
SoxMachine Article on Chris Getz's Vision
CaliSoxFanViaSWside replied to WestEddy's topic in Pale Hose Talk
I think a nice progression of wins from year to year because of player development is the goal of any rebuild ,right ? 2025 was the 1st year after rock bottom. It has to happen again and again and again. Its not crazy to think it will consudering the talent in the pipeline and the talent yet to be drafted in the most important draft ever for the new front office and staff. Think about this. The most important international Latin American free agent market year still might not be for a few more years. It takes time to become players for the most high profile younger talent . Rome wasnt built in a day. Could take 4-7 years to turn a 16 yr old into a Major Leaguer. Wether or not Getz is around for new ownership isn't what the vision is about. It's about building a foundation that you can build upon and expand to sustain a talent pipeline. Then even in years where you don't have high draft choices you can still identify and develop talent. -
SoxMachine Article on Chris Getz's Vision
CaliSoxFanViaSWside replied to WestEddy's topic in Pale Hose Talk
It's based on run differential so you can't get the Pythagorean win total till after the season is over. They had a lot of close losses and hit a lot better in the 2nd half. So, like any team filtering in young talent slowly you get variances in run production and runs allowed. We can see where they were weak. Overall it was a lot of late inning losses or the high leverage relief pitching was bad .The starting was less than mediocre. 1st half of the season the offense wasn't scoring enough . The 2nd half ( which is not a totally accurate term) the hitting was much improved due to some young hitters finding their way. So in theory you get better relief pitching and continue what happened with the hitting, then those theoretical wins become real wins . I think its fairly evident that there's been more effort to get more late inning wins and improve the record in 1 and 2 run losses. Getz wants to establish more wins every year, hopefully by 10 or more each season as they work in more of the top pitching prospects and create enough depth among the hitting prospects to end up with an over .500 team in year or 2. How far above .500 is based on how fast those prospects become consisently good. 2025 was a very good year for Sox rookies and the organization. They now need to show it was real. And the depth has to keep getting better. The Sox should get more high quality talent in the 2026 draft. There will always be those who quibble about organization wins now because this is all pretty new and as much as I'd like to think getting Shane Smith and Mike Vasil in the Rule 5 may have been about the best you can hope for, you dont really know until a few years after. But traditionally it's not been a fruitful way to help very much. But it's great that they can take advantage of the bad records and upgrades in scouting and R&D to identify and develop guys like that in such a short period of time. Shane Smith, in particular, would be akin to watching a top pitching prospect develop in the Sox system for 3 or 4 years but it happened in less than a year after the Rule 5 draft.
