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Keuchel also has had 2 short seasons in a row prior to this one. 2019 signed very late with Atlanta and 2020 Covid. The pitching dynamic changes in a hurry If Rodon is removed from the playoff equation.

Due to financial constraints, TB has practically written the book on how to manage a pitching staff . They have started 11 different pitchers this year while the Sox have started 7. Their top 5 starting pitchers have started 50 games while the Sox SP have started 61. The Rays also believe 2 times through the batting order is enough for starting pitchers and that's another way they limit starters load and rely heavily on their BP. They have a much deeper farm and pitching depth which allows them to mix and match . They have a deeper BP and recently traded Adames because they had Wall and Franco in the wings . One of the guys they got was Feyereisen who has been great for them since acquired and shut down the Sox for 2 innings tonight. They play the best defense in baseball and never overlook defense when looking for players to acquire. All these things haven't won them a World Series but it works great for the regular season as long as the talent evaluators eyes keep working. Despite the low budget and not great draft position they still somehow manage to identify and develop talent through pitching ,hitting and defense and do not hesitate to rid themselves of talent when it gets expensive or is necessitated by up and coming farm hands The Sox are overly reliant on their SP . Their BP is nowhere near as good or deep as TB. The Sox must start curbing their SP innings or they will either be unable to pitch or very tired for the playoffs. This means at least 2 BP arms who can pitch well .Fry may be back soon and this will help some with the depth but a guy just like Freyeresien would be tremendous. I'm not very worried about Lynn or Giolito but I am definitely worried about Rodon ,Kopech, Cease, Crochet and Keuchel running out of gas. They all will be needed to to contribute to winning playoff games if the Sox can get passed the 1st round.

I would feel more convinced if you could tell me what other playoff caliber teams have 3 of their best pitchers ( Rodon Kopech and Crochet) with as little time pitching in MLB in the last 2 years as them. I already said the long season after the short season would cause problems league wide but I am talking about how it affects a team with World Series aspirations not pretenders to that particular goal. The longer the season goes the bigger the problem gets. I gave you specifics that one team has and you gave me generalities . As of this moment Rodon is one of the best pitchers in the league who has already passed his combined innings pitched for the last 2 seasons and we are still 100 miles away from our 162 mile trip and after that trip is another one with uphill grueling miles.

Balanced lineup. pitching and defense, great talent evaluation.

I wouldn't call their lineup garbage. They win the way a lot of good teams win, pitching defense ( especially in the OF ) and just enough power. They have out homered the Sox by 13 and 17 more Total bases. It's probably equal or better then the Sox offense considering the Rays face better pitching in the AL East than we do in the Central.

Power rankings: https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-power-rankings-after-week-10 1. Rays (1 last week) The Rays lost one game last week after taking over the top spot, so it’s no surprise they’re back there again. Tampa Bay has won 23 of its past 28 dating back to May 13, outscoring opponents by 86 runs during that stretch. They lead the tough American League East division by three games, and their bullpen leads the AL with a 3.08 ERA, including a 1.59 mark in the past 17 games. 3. White Sox (2) The White Sox have won 15 of their past 20 games, while their starting pitchers are 11-4 with a 2.85 ERA during that stretch. Carlos Rodón, who carried a no-hitter into the seventh inning vs. the Tigers on Sunday, has a 1.89 ERA this season. It’s second lowest in the AL, behind only teammate Lance Lynn (1.23). Also, entering Sunday’s outing, opponents were hitting just .044 off Rodón’s slider.

Like it or not more power , speed and defense among the starters will help . They don't have to carry anything , just do better than the people you are replacing. I think Eloy can be better than Vaughn, Lamb, Goodwinin LF at least offensively and Robert can be better than Engel Leury Hamilton, Goodwin. Then you have to pick among Vaughn Engel, Eaton Leury , Goodwin and Hamilton to be decent for RF and defensive replacements for Eloy or Eloy only DH's and you figure out what to do with Mercedes and then decide who plays LF and RF among Engel , Vaughn, Eaton , Goodwin Hamilton and Leury. Either way the guys lowest on the depth chart will be jettisoned eventually resulting in a stronger team. At this point I have no idea who will be DFA or sent back to the minor or picked up at the TDL but the team will be better and perhaps much better. Pitching is the other story and I'm less optimistic about that than I am the lineup.

Starling Marte for the Of and Escobar for 2nd base would be temporary since they will be Free Agents at the end of 2021. I don't expect to get both but one of them, probably Escobar, is attainable.

This is from a Sun-Times article in March: Monitoring workloads, pitch counts and health in a full season after last season’s abbreviated 60-game slate is priority No. 1 for first-year pitching coach Ethan Katz. He likes what he has seen from Rodon this spring, and it started in the training room during the offseason. “We really put together a customized program for him,” Katz told the Chicago Sun-Times. “He’s really enjoying it from the work, delivery standpoint, in the training room, with the medical staff, strength coaches, to upping his intensity mentally in bullpens. “We’re challenging him, and he’s been really receptive to everything. It’s working well for him and showing up in his outings. We’re trying to give him different outlooks of what he might have been in the past, how we can help him stay healthy and stay on the field.” As far as what I have been talking about in many posts among different threads the post you quoted says it all. How in the world can anyone expect Rodon to pitch over 150 innings when he has pitched 42 combined innings in the last 2 years. Did you see all the innings pitched for all the guys in the last full season World Series I listed in 2019 ? 7 of the 9 starters pitched 184 + innings. It would be a pitching miracle 1. If Rodon stays healthy. 2. He can pitch that many innings and , 3. If he can pitch over 150 inning at the same effectiveness or close to it as he is now.

This group without Eloy , Robert and Madrigal or this group with them (assume Eloy and Robert come back and get to full strength by the playoffs and Madrigal is done for the year) and TDL guys ?

I trust Eloy's judgment on this about as much as I trust his judgment on how to stay injury free.

Don't forget Rodon. There's a good chance he might not be around for the playoffs. 41-24 , 16 games left to reach the season midpoint. 66.2 IP so far. Assume he makes 3 more starts 5 IP /start to reach the midway point . That will give him right around 82 IP . Let me conservatively estimate 10 starts in the 2nd half at 5 IP/start to add another 55 innings which equals 137 IP. How many IP do we think Rodon is capable of after pitching a combined 42 IP in the last 2 years ? 125 ? 150 ? In the 2019 WS Nats v. Astros 9 starting pitchers were used. The 7 best all had between 184 and 258 IP Rodon and Cease have never come close to that amount of IP. The last time Keuchel did it was 2018. The Nats ( the WS winners) used 5 different starting pitchers in the WS and the Astros used 4 . It's a fallacy that the Sox will only need 3 SP in the World Series. If you are looking for a big 3 it's likely to be Lynn Giolito and Keuchel or Cease . Rodon and Kopech will likely be over the IP goals the Sox had hoped they could pitch this year and way over anything they have done in the past 2 years. Cease could also fit into that category. Keuchel will certainly pitch his most innings since 2018.

In other words : Vote early and often and then vote later and often in the final round.

I'm just going by their record. Wins and losses is the true indicator to me. Without more power I'd expect it to stay the same against RHP. Now Eloy and Robert may help of course especially when you consider our starting pitching but we need them at full strength . Another strong LH bat would be a big help. I also did mention that most of the stats about how the Sox hit RHP is against weaker Central division pitching except the Indians. Good teams with good RHP , the kind you face in the playoffs I don't think it will be enough with a primarily RH lineup.

To make it all the way through the playoffs and win a World Series the Sox will have to use at least 4 starting pitchers and maybe even 5 . Let's just use the most recent World Series as an example. The Nationals started 5 different starting pitchers. Scherzer , Strasburg, Anibal Sanchez, Patrick Corbin and Joe Ross. 4 of those 5 pitched more innings than Rodon is probably capable of this season. When you combine regular season with playoffs Scherzer pitched 202 innings, Strasburg ( the WS MVP ) 253 innings, Anibal Sanchez 184 IP and Patrick Corbin 225 IP. If you look at the Astros they had 4 different stating pitchers in the World Series 3 of which threw more combined regular season and playoff innings than Rodon is probably capable of. Gerrit Cole 253 IP, Justin Verlander 258 IP, and Zack Greineke 234 IP. The 4th starter was Jose Urquidy . If we assume Rodon might not make it to the post season unless his innings pitched are cut way back 150 innings might be the very top of the ladder that we can expect for him this year and even that seems unlikely.That leaves Lynn, Giolito ,Keuchel and Cease among our starting pitchers. The most IP Cease has ever thrown is 141 between Charlotte and the Sox in 2019. Dallas Keuchel hasn't pitched over 200 innings since 2018. He will probably pitch more innings this year than 2019 and 2020 combined. If you include Kopech as a postseason starter he didn't pitch any innings in 2019 and 2020.

I think he has to make his starts every 5 days to keep his rhythm. As the innings pile up Carlos may not be able to find that extra gear of throwing from 98 to 100 when he needs it or he may go through a dead arm period and just plain and simple break down again. The deeper you go the more tired you get and fatigue is a big factor in injury. Sure it would suck every time he's taken out after 75 pitches of so no matter the inning or if he has a no hitter or not but if the goal is the World Series and the Sox can get a good lead in the division race , every starting pitcher will see his workload curtailed. That's the whole reason why I prefer the Sox load up on relief arms. Starting pitchers are babied now. There's really no reason for any of them to go deeper into games unless they have built a tolerance to it like Lynn who is a horse. Rodon isn't even close to that level of arm durability.

I think that's in the ball park. My first thought is things won't continue the same way for Carlos. I mean how could they ? There's just no way he can keep this up for 150+ innings if anyone is expecting Lynn and him to be the 1 and 2 starting pitchers in the playoffs. Even at number 3 that's a lot of innings for a guy who pitched 42 innings in the last 2 years combined. If he does keep it up for 150 innings + I'll be extremely impressed .

I think Carlos also took his talent for granted and didn't work on his body enough. I think he convinced the Sox that he was in the best shape of his life and would be willing to work with Katz on changes to resurrect his career. It would be nice if when Rodon reaches Free Agency that he at least give the Sox a chance to match any offer he gets if he's stay healthy of course. Long way to go.

Yea I remember talking about Rodon a lot and I have nothing in this thread. I know I was doubtful he'd get a MLB deal and if the Sox didn't sign him maybe all he would've got would be a minor league contract. Any differences the 2 sides may have had in the past were quickly rectified ( if they existed at all) by $3M and the hiring of Katz.

Exactly just look at Cease . His fastball hasn't changed much from the last few years to this year but what has changed is the knuckle curve. Maybe the command of the FB is better and that makes some difference but his K rate was plummeting without being able to throw any other pitch for strikes consistently. Now with the Knuckle curve and slider can be combined as tandem pitches . Then he can just as easily further throw you off balance with a change up. Off course the spin rate for all his pitches is higher also but he's just throwing more strikes with more pitches. He's throwing the same pitches at the same frequency as last year.

Not just someone , someone who hits RHP well. The Sox record against RHP is still around .500. Considering the majority of games are against RHP , once you face stronger teams that record against RHP will become worse and there's no way to make it to the World Series unless they hit RHP better. Remember that's a .500 against RHP with a lot of our games against weaker opponents and a strong starting pitching staff.

I agree the Sox will need more starting pitching but that doesn't address what we need this year. We can probably agree that Lynn has been our best starter and should continue to be going forward. Our next best arms have been Rodon , Hendrix, Kopech and Crochet. 3 of the next 4 best are serious question marks to even have enough stamina left to reach the playoffs let alone go through the playoff and get to the World Series. Rodon, Kopech and Crochet are going to reach pitching limits . Rodon should probably be limited to 5 innings pitched per start from now on. Kopech has been shut down for injury but many suspect it's also an effort to limit his innings. What Crochet can withstand on his arm is a crapshoot. Trade for some pitcher with a good health history who also pitch well in relief maybe 1 multiple inning guy and 1 late inning guy. The pitching staff that holds up the best in the normal season after the short season will be the favorite to at least reach the World Series. I'm not worried too much about the position players although another LH power bat would be nice since our record against RHP is still mediocre. Just find one guy who rakes against RHP. Escobar isn't really that guy since his strong side is hitting right handed but he's still got good pop against RHP. Starling Marte is pretty good against both RHP and LHP and is a very good fielder in the OF but I fear 2nd base is the weakest link in the lineup and the easiest and cheapest place to find a Left handed bat. Jerry may pony up for some salary but I'm not expecting much.

Good post and very much along the same lines as I posted a few posts back. I'd say the opinions on Dunning for Lynn trade was about split 50/50. There will always be a very vocal group who love prospects so much that any trade of any prospect for one year of a player will be criticized. The negative opinions are always the loudest in any area. Game threads would all be under 5 pages if all the negative and post game comments after wins were taken out. I'm pretty sure I posted a lot about the trade since I was probably the 1st one to suggest that trade before the trade deadline in 2020. I really wanted Lynn for 2 post seasons instead of 1. The Rangers put a higher price on him I'm guessing that the Sox decided not to pay and year one of contending in 2020 was out the window. It was always in my mind that if you make the playoffs it's a contending year. Right now only the present counts and his team will surely have good enough hitting once Eloy and Robert come back. Between Engel, Goodwin, Eaton and Vaughn I'm good with the OF although 1 player who could play defense and offense would be nice. A switch hitting power bat like Escobar would be really nice for 2nd base but once again pitching will be the key so I'm just going to keep sounding like a broken record. Load up on relief pitching . Find a couple of good veteran arms who have been through the grind like Hendrix . Guys who appear to have rubber arms who pitch well and often. If the Sox keep pitching Rodon and Kopech at their current rates neither will be around to pitch in the World Series which is a partial reason why Kopech is taking a while to come back from his injury. Rodon pitched 42 combined innings in the last 2 years and he's already got 67 this year. Any guesses on when his arm will conk out ? 100 ? 125 ? 150 ? Kopech pitched 0 innings the last 2 years . He's at 31 now and some people here are expecting him to take Rodon's spot in the rotation at some point in the 2nd half. I don't have a clue how many innings Crochet can pitch. All I know about him is he hasn't thrown a single pitch 100 MPH when last year every other pitch was at 100. If he's dialed it back to prevent injury I'm all for it since he's been effective. The Sox just said last week they are going to try Crochet now for over 1 inning at a time. That decision in itself can be a separate thread of opinions when you weigh if he can become a future starting pitcher vs. winning a World Series vs. keeping him healthy.

The farm is a mess . AAA and AA it's filled with AAAA guys in their mid twenties. Anyone is is willing to take them is fine by me. The only window in my mind is the open window this year with a better starting pitching staff than we are going to get in any the future window. If you want Rodon, Kopech and Crochet to pitch in a World Series then their innings need to be severely curtailed and we need extra arms. All 3 of them barely pitched in 2019 and 2020. Those 3 are way too important to success this year. Pitcher's are dropping like flys already so imagine how bad the 2nd half will be . The eventual World Series winner will have the best pitching depth. It's going to be a war of attrition.

Also the Angels clawing their way back to over .500 .