CaliSoxFanViaSWside

Competitive can be achieved by 2020 if things go very well. I also said appearing in a WS in 2021 and winning it in 2022 or 23. Where did I say anything about not be competitive til until 2022/23 ? So great ,winning a WS in 2022 or 2023 would bother you a little you because there was a failure to deliver on sustained excellence ?

The big lake they call Gitche Gumee...

So if we are in the World Series in 2021 the rebuild is a failure ? How bout if we win it in 2022 or 2023 ?

I'll take a World Series win next year or in 5 years. If that happens I'd have to say the rebuild was a success, Beats waiting another 88 years.

I like it except for the fact next off season is a good year for a big starting pitcher FA purchase. I think just like Machado is a key so is a whale starting pitcher as you said because of Kopech Cease and Dunning all being early in their careers. Contrary to popular belief I think there's an outside chance at contending in 2020. But that does have lots of variable as you suggested and I'm open to seeing if those variables turn out well. The main guy that I have been having opposing opinions with regarding Pederson said if have we have to wait til 2021 to contend the rebuild is a failure because the earlier prospects will be in their arbitration years. I don't know why anyone would think that . If getting Pederson means the rebuild is doomed unless we contend before 2021 I have a major argument with that kind of thinking.

Nope and neither will Pederson.

The Sox have no #1 and no # 2 starter. If they wanted to compete they would have gone out and got a 1 or 2 starter. Nova isn't that. If you want to pin all your hopes and dreams on Giolito, Lopez, Rodon Covey Banuelos and go right ahead but if you think its only me who just doesn't get it you are sorely mistaken and you are in for a huge disappointment.

Tell me when are we contending again? I just want to get this down for future reference.

Yay another quality post supporting your views, The Supreme Court is waiting for you.

Lol hey all of a sudden everyone thinks we can compete with the slowest CF and outfield in baseball and no starting pitching i'm cool with that . But I'll be waiting with the big I told you so after the season. Besides it mostly new posters, I got some support from Balta but once Rabbit said Joc was a good CF everybody lined up to kiss his ass and isn't using anything but but speed doesn't matter what about reads and jumps which is what all the slow guys say. Or the old but so and so was good and he wasnt a barn burner. Wonderful I never said speed makes you great or lack or it makes you suck. I'm just saying speed is the best thing you can have as a CF and that shouldn't even be a debate ask Mickey Mantle Willie Mays, Mike Trout , Engel, Buxton and all the guys with blazing speed who were and are considered top notch CFers who far outnumber the slow one's who are considered good. And there's no doubt at all that Pederson is slow. I used sprint speed by statcast to measure speed and everyone is measured the same way by it so I don't see how disputing it's accuracy can help the slow guys.So them I used statcast Catch Probability that takes into consideration things like speed but also reads and jumps an OF gets and still Pederson sucked in a year where he played mostly LF and now he's going to play CF ? I really don't know what else to say.It's not like anyone came forth with better stats to support their claims. All I got was mostly trying to discredit my methods without backing up their claims. I don't think I'm dieing at all. I'm outnumbered by people drinking the koolaid and sick of losing but that's Ok it's been fun.

Don't even have close to the starting pitching necessary to win the division. I too had hopes that 2019 could be a decent year for the same reasons. That went out the window as soon as i saw Nova was the replacement for Shields.

Rebuilds aren't linear either. Admitting to failure because 2021 is more realistic than 2019 and 2020 is odd considering Kopech will be only in his 2nd year, Cease and Dunning in their 2nd year . All the OF prospects and Madrigal in maybe 1st full year or rookie years. Jimenez 3rd starting third year but we have control for 7 ? if we bring him up April this year ? Burger might be ready who knows? Should have a good idea on Bryce Bush and Steele walker progress. Doesn't seem like a failed rebuild to me. Astro's signed a bunch of FA's to supplement their WS winning team. Gurriel. Reddick Morton, Verlander may be forgetting one. Yes the rebuild is doomed doomed I say by 2021.

Yes i also told him that unless he's already counting 2019.

Yes I know I did break it down to years of bad and years when they put Theo in charge.

SO would you be willing to wager the Sox don't make the playoffs in 2019 ? No money just a fun bet.

I understand prospect growth isn't linear. If it was any other year but the Moncada Harper year the Sox would have no interest in speeding up the rebuild and if we don't get Machado neither would most of our posters. As you said long term pieces are the key but that's not what Pederson and every other guy we acquired so far is. AT the beginning of the rebuild whenever Machado or Harper were brought up we'd get a resounding no way the Sox go after them. Now all of a sudden everyone thinks getting Machado means we can win the division in the next 2 years. This will only be the 3rd year of the rebuild. The Cubs had 5 bad years before they got better. 3 if you want to count after Theo took over. The Stros had 3 bad years and another 3 after Luhnow took over. Lost in the ALDS in 2015 Missed the playoffs in 2016 , Won the WS in 2017. I'm not saying we have to follow the exact path they did but they both won WS so it's not a bad model. As far as drafting high not being a key look at how much it helped the Astros and they even screwed up a couple picks like all teams do. Correa , Bregman and Springer are head and shoulders above any results the Sox have experienced so far but we made up for that by having prospects we traded for who may have the same impacts as those 3. They just have to not get injured any more and get here. Trying to win too early screws up the chance at more impact draft choices. Not surrounding all those young players with talent too early didn't seem to negatively impact the Stros or Cubs. Their bond was built because they all were in the same system at the same time who came up together or a year or 2 apart. Then they added the free agents to complete the rebuild Verlander, Beltran, Reddick. Morton, Gurriel. January 14, 2015 Traded Andrew Thurman (minors), Mike Foltynewicz and Rio Ruiz to the Atlanta Braves. Received Evan Gattis and James Hoyt. Wonder if they would want a do over with that one. July 30, 2015 Traded Josh Hader, Adrian Houser, Brett Phillips and Domingo Santana to the Milwaukee Brewers. Received Mike Fiers, Carlos Gomez and cash. They got 3 Ok years from Fiers during the 2015 playoff team and the 2017 WS winning team. Fiers was 30 Gomez was 29. I could go farther back but I don't see anyone they acquired in trades who made a difference before they started making the playoffs. Mostly a lot of good FA acquisitions. Fiers pitched 1 inning in the 2015 playoffs and was left off the 2017 playoffs and World Series roster.

Isn't the catch group not large enough because most of the other catches are fairly routine ? I'm assuming you are talking about the samples in the 1 through 5 star ratings ?

And why should I look at his whole career? Didn't you just make the argument about how Jones and Gonzales have sucked over the last couple years? Pederson is a future 1st baseman waiting to happen.He's already slower than many of them. Pederson is a big boy and I don't care how average his whole career WAS in CF he isn't getting any faster.. WAS is not now . At least Rowand wasn't slower than a lot of 1st baseman nor was Jim Edmunds. Winning matters in 2019 ? Really . Winning what ? The award for the best under .500 team in baseball ? The best team with the most guys who aren't going to be on the team after 2020 ? The youthful core will be supported but not by Pederson playing CF that's for sure. Hopefully by Machado, a whale pitcher next year and Madrigal, Collins, Robert, Jimenez, Gonzalez, Basabe and whoever else we sign for 2020 and after that.

No he wants to create a team with long term competitiveness to reach the playoffs for multiple years. I'm pretty sure that won't be 2019 with a slim chance at 2020. More likely starting in 2021 after Pederson would be gone along with Alonso, Jay, Colome, Herrera and possibly Abreu.

I did also use catch probability which incorporates the things you mentioned as far as what made Roward a good defensive CFer. but you didn't like that one either. I can't remember if I used Edmunds as an example in my other posts on the subject. I know i was going to not sure if I did. I also go pretty far back in my observance of Sox Cfer's and you could also use Ken Berry as an example. I'm not 100% invested in sprint speed but using it made me realize he is pretty damn slow. I'm not against acquiring Pederson to use a a corner OF but there damn well better be a much better guy in CF to cover for the slowness that will be the Sox OF when the corners are so slow and rated poorly . It's never a good sign when 2 of the slowest guys on your roster are your newly acquired Ofer's (Jay is even slower than Pederson) but rated a bit higher than Joc in CP. I totally understand wanting to win more right now,but it would be a mirage since none of the added pieces currently are more than 2 year players. The only difference is we still have a shot and Machado and Eloy will be here. After those 2 years we can see how all the other CF prospects stack up and we have quite a few of them. After those 2 years the Sox again lose a lot of payroll maybe including Abreu too. Next year you can sign a whale starting pitcher to ease the transition while Kopech Cease and Dunning perhaps adjust to the big leagues.

You're right we don't need them well except as lures for Machado and the relief pitchers to support the young staff. So yes I support the lures and the pitchers and I don't support another lousy defensive future 1st baseman clogging up the OF. That doesn't make me a criminal Yes on Machado No on Pederson. Yes on defense and our young talented starting pitching. No on giving up any minor league talent for 2 year players.

AH the old Sox could extent him line. That happens so much . Extend him because the current climate of our prospects in the future OF are so dismal ?

Well it might ve been lip service but Hahn did say if there was one thing he can guarantee it would better defense in 2019. I'm paraphrasing but I'm sure of it.

It just seemed to be the best one I can find that uses more than just speed since it also takes into account reads and jumps.

Nice post but can you tell me why the Sox need Joc Pederson in 2019 and 2020 ? And for clarity's sake again no stats on how good Rowand was defensively or really how fast he was. so lets all just assume he was a great fielder and not fast because Aaron Roward was a beloved Sox player and let's appeal to that instead. Aaron Roward who wasn't fast and an instinctual fielder: I suppose you are basing your opinion on the eye test since you shat on Sprint speed, Catch Probability and just about any defensive metric we can find. Haven't seen one person use DRS or anything else to support their "he's good but I can't prove it but I can sure discredit your attempts at proof. This post was more like was it over when the German's bombed Pearl Harbor post. Appealing to the good old fashioned eye test and the glory of our much beloved ARow when usually all the greatest posters ( myself not included in that} tend to use advanced metrics. ) For every Aarow Roward I can give you 5 guys who had great speed and were much better CF's than him using the eye test too if you want. Catch probability does its best to incorporate those great instincts you talk about but now its no good. As far as Palka goes you are probably right but you might not be given you talked about how bad he was and not how good he may become due to the weight lose. Yay points for you because you rallied the troops General.