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Everything posted by CaliSoxFanViaSWside
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Joc Pederson: ???
CaliSoxFanViaSWside replied to NCsoxfan's topic in Pale Hose Talk
He is. Catch Probability ranked him 75th out of 87 OF's in a year where he played mostly LF. Now imagine him in CF all the time. If by not bad you mean he can catch routine flys balls you're right he isn't bad at that. Anything more challenging he's not going to make the catch. Funny how those who might think he is a bad OF or think Palka could be just as good have to talk themselves into it while those who think he isn't bad haven't talked themselves into it because they so badly don't want to see Engel out there again or are willing to sacrifice defense for the long ball. -
Joc Pederson: ???
CaliSoxFanViaSWside replied to NCsoxfan's topic in Pale Hose Talk
It might end of that way anyhow if we don't get Pederson. I'm still worried we don't get Machado . So if Machado isn't here why pursue Pederson ? -
Joc Pederson: ???
CaliSoxFanViaSWside replied to NCsoxfan's topic in Pale Hose Talk
If that's what matters then having Pederson makes no difference because odds are he won't be here in 2021. So that's one of the many points I've been trying to make. Saving runs IMHO is worth more to a young pitcher and can be the difference between a pitching thinking he let his team down or thinking he kept his team in the game. It's extremely demoralizing seeing a pitcher give up 3 runs in a bases loaded 2 out jam when an OF doesn't make a catch a much better OF would have. With sloths in the OF we might be seeing a lot of that so it just isn't on Engel as much as it is on the OF as a whole. It might be the difference between a ERA of 4 which is considered decent now in the AL and a 5.00 which we consider bad. If we have to trot out 2 sloths then the gazelle becomes that much more important. -
White Sox announce Spring Training invites
CaliSoxFanViaSWside replied to southsider2k5's topic in Pale Hose Talk
It's always fun seeing the prospects in ST games. The highlight of last spring was the grand slam by Robert. -
Joc Pederson: ???
CaliSoxFanViaSWside replied to NCsoxfan's topic in Pale Hose Talk
Yep they only use it in max effort plays and eliminating the bottom 3rd makes sure of that. -
Joc Pederson: ???
CaliSoxFanViaSWside replied to NCsoxfan's topic in Pale Hose Talk
Listen I get your point offense is exciting runs matter and all that . Don't you think that if we add Machado, Eloy is good and Abreu bouncing back to his normal self our offense will be much improved. Maybe Moncada also takes a leap forward . I think that is plenty of offense, Palka if he's around and Alonso also are decent bats. Our fundamental difference is apparently I care about pitching and defense where you care about offense. Guess we will have to agree to disagree here because you responded so fast there's no way you read about Catch Probability. Apparently all the stats I provided nor having the slowest OF in the majors can't convince many people that our defense around our young pitchers is worth caring about. -
Joc Pederson: ???
CaliSoxFanViaSWside replied to NCsoxfan's topic in Pale Hose Talk
75th out of 87 qualified outfielders in Catch Probability in a year he played mostly LF ? How is that not bad ? Catch probability is explained in the above post if you care to read it before I hear about reads and jumps. -
Joc Pederson: ???
CaliSoxFanViaSWside replied to NCsoxfan's topic in Pale Hose Talk
Sprint Speed is Statcast’s foot speed metric, defined as “feet per second in a player’s fastest one-second window.” The Major League average on a “max effort” play is 27 ft/sec, and the max effort range is roughly from 23 ft/sec (poor) to 30 ft/sec (elite). A player must have at least 10 max effort runs to qualify for this leaderboard. That was from Fangraphs If you want to use catch probability here is the definition. Catch Probability expresses the likelihood for a ball to be caught by an outfielder based on opportunity time, distance needed, and direction. “Opportunity time” starts when the ball is released by the pitcher, and “distance needed” is the shortest distance needed to make the catch. Learn more about how direction is accounted for here. Read more about the details of how Catch Probability works here. . we know that not every fly ball is created equally. An out may be an out in the scorebook, but there's a very different amount of skill required to catch the lazy fly ball that has a 95 percent Catch Probability as opposed to the sinking liner that has a 10 percent Catch Probability. Regardless of how it "looks," we should attempt to credit that difference in difficulty accordingly. So that's exactly what we're doing. Since Statcast™ tells us the exact start position on the field for each fielder and also tracks the hang time of each batted ball, we know the two most important pieces of data to define the difficulty of a catch opportunity are: 1. How far did the fielder have to go? 2. How much time did he have to get there? (Which direction he was running is also important, and while it's not incorporated right now, it will be rolled into the formula early in the season.) For each of those two data points, there are important specifics to point out. First, we're using "Distance Needed," not actual "Distance Covered," and that's because a fielder who runs a poor route and artificially adds more feet to his path shouldn't get extra credit. Second, we're starting the clock at the pitcher's release, not the point of batted ball contact, and we're calling that Opportunity Time. Why? Because we've seen great fielders like Kevin Kiermaier specifically talk about reading the catcher's signs to anticipate where the pitch will be and get a head start in that direction. That's a skill, and that deserves credit. this was from https://www.mlb.com/news/statcast-introduces-catch-probability-for-2017/c-217802340 -
Joc Pederson: ???
CaliSoxFanViaSWside replied to NCsoxfan's topic in Pale Hose Talk
How does statcast sprint speed not equal play speed ? They are measuring your speed when you play . These are not 100 yard dash speeds that statcast uses. There are plenty of guys who get great jumps and reads but that doesn't make up for the ability to run down balls in the gap that much slower guys with great jumps and read cannot get to. The jumps and reads are much more important when balls are hit straight at you than balls in the gaps. Much more statistical data has been provided by Balta and myself. If you as well as many other want to insist Avi was a terrible OF I cannot control those thoughts But whether you use sprint speed or Outs Above Average Avi was a far better fielder than Joc Pederson was in 2018. Why was he better ? Apparently his speed made him get to a lot of balls many slower OF's couldn't get to. Avi +4 Pederson -7 in OAA. Not even close. -
Joc Pederson: ???
CaliSoxFanViaSWside replied to NCsoxfan's topic in Pale Hose Talk
However Statcast does it. It;s how much ground you cover per second. I think they use it mostly when running the bases. However you can also use statcast Catch Probability if you prefer among qualified OF's. Perderson was #75 with an OAA ( outs above average of -7, Their list of qualified OF'ers only goes up to 87. SO Pederson was 75 out of 87and thats with the majority of time played in LF. Jay was #63 at -3. Avi was #30 with +4. Engel was a +16 We can break it down furthur with how many opportunitys Pederson had for 5 star catches , he was 0 out of 10 chances. 4 star catches 1 out of 11. 3 star catches 5 out of 10. 2 star catches 13 of 17. 1 star catch 7 of 8. Go here if you need how to better understand this data. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/catch_probability_leaderboard -
Joc Pederson: ???
CaliSoxFanViaSWside replied to NCsoxfan's topic in Pale Hose Talk
Pederson and Jay would currently be in the bottom 5 guys on the Sox as far as positional players speed goes. I'll just automatically say Castillo and McCann are slower. Machado is as fast as Pederson. I can accept slow OF's in the corners but it really emphasizes the need for speed in CF then, God help our pitchers. -
Joc Pederson: ???
CaliSoxFanViaSWside replied to NCsoxfan's topic in Pale Hose Talk
Same guy as Engel no point. -
Joc Pederson: ???
CaliSoxFanViaSWside replied to NCsoxfan's topic in Pale Hose Talk
Yes it is and I acknowledged that point. All one has to do is look at the best CF'ers and look at how their speed relates to it. This is not rocket science. Mickey Mantle, Paul Blair WIllie Mays . Trout, Buxton ,Engel, Kiermaier and on and on. Do we really want the slowest OF in baseball regardless of jumps and reads when we are trying to instill confidence in our young pitchers ? The ERA's and FIP's are going to take a beating with an OF with Eloy, Pederson and whoever out there. This is not even debatable. I'm surprised because of the urgency in some posters to get Engel out of CF how willing we are to accept a terrible OF defense with a guy who won't even be here in 3 years at the expense of our pitching staff. The pitchers are the key to the rebuild not Joc Pederson in CF. -
Joc Pederson: ???
CaliSoxFanViaSWside replied to NCsoxfan's topic in Pale Hose Talk
Come on please. I was making a point of how slow he is. If you can't argue legitmately. I will not discuss this you any further. -
Joc Pederson: ???
CaliSoxFanViaSWside replied to NCsoxfan's topic in Pale Hose Talk
Faster than Pederson and that was before he lost weight. Abreu and Kevin Smith are faster. -
Joc Pederson: ???
CaliSoxFanViaSWside replied to NCsoxfan's topic in Pale Hose Talk
He would be better if he was faster. Maybe his reads and jumps are good Idk , you don't know. I still don't see anything telling me how my arguments are flawed . Give me facts . I did so can you. He cannot be rated as an even average CF without foot speed. He is SLOW not just slow for an OF'er. The Dodgers played him mostly in LF and saw the need to put their slick fielding 1st baseman in CF over Pederson. What's the argument for Pederson in CF . Is this all some kind of wishful thinking trying to fit a square peg in a round hole to justify his acquisition ? I got noproblem playing him in a corner . But no way do you have an OF of Eloy , Pederson and whoever in right field regurarly. Doesn't anyone care about supporting our young pitchers ? Whatever happened to being strong up the middle as a foundation of good defense ? -
Joc Pederson: ???
CaliSoxFanViaSWside replied to NCsoxfan's topic in Pale Hose Talk
Fine everybody is going to make me look up the sprint speeds instead of doing it themselves I see. Why is it only me who provides the data instead of just opinions. -
Joc Pederson: ???
CaliSoxFanViaSWside replied to NCsoxfan's topic in Pale Hose Talk
Ha no statcast then. -
Joc Pederson: ???
CaliSoxFanViaSWside replied to NCsoxfan's topic in Pale Hose Talk
Ha damn it . Fuck me early dementia must be settling in. -
Joc Pederson: ???
CaliSoxFanViaSWside replied to NCsoxfan's topic in Pale Hose Talk
Maybe why don't you look it up. I'd say he's at least 1,5 feet/sec faster than Pederson. That's significantly faster to me. -
Joc Pederson: ???
CaliSoxFanViaSWside replied to NCsoxfan's topic in Pale Hose Talk
How is it flawed ? The best CF'er are usually the fastest ones. Are there exceptions ? Yes not sure how fast Jim Edmundson was. If you want to support how I am flawed by offering example of good defensive Cfers who run as slow as Pederson be my guess. I love a good baseball arguments but just saying I am flawed is not sufficient data. Byron , Buxton, Engel ,Harrison Bader, Trout , Kiermaier all much fastest than Pederson. -
Joc Pederson: ???
CaliSoxFanViaSWside replied to NCsoxfan's topic in Pale Hose Talk
I think Palka would be fine to get the AB's against righties . Problem is no matter how we slice it we are still going to need Engel for his defense . Now if Yolmer can play OF maybe that works. Outfield defense still going to be a problem without someone like Engel. -
Joc Pederson: ???
CaliSoxFanViaSWside replied to NCsoxfan's topic in Pale Hose Talk
Yes I did . My error ,routine groundball and I booted it. Mea culpa. -
Joc Pederson: ???
CaliSoxFanViaSWside replied to NCsoxfan's topic in Pale Hose Talk
My mistake I thought I quoted Rabbit not you. But please, people make mistakes no way to be rude. -
Joc Pederson: ???
CaliSoxFanViaSWside replied to NCsoxfan's topic in Pale Hose Talk
My mistake I thought I was quoting Rabbit saying Pederson is a perfectly fine CF.
