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! had a feeling a SP would be on your list, And I totally know what you mean, Anyone who's ever said we won't need starters or relief pitchers because that's what our great pitching prospects are for, I've argued with them too . I only mentioned position player FA's because that's where the Sox are weakest. The Cubs went out of got Lester Q ,Chapman, Darvish and now Hamels because they are strongest in position players. I also understand not wanting to ruin the young arms by pushing them past their limits. Even if you don't those arms are always a bigger risk than position players for injury which makes the Sox rebuild a riskier proposition than the Cubs but its also our strength as an organization. Sometimes pushing guys passed limits cant be helped. How many pitchers be it veterans or youngsters are truly prepared to pitch through the playoff and into a World Series when often the rotation is only the 1 2 3 Sp's and once in a while the 4th starter ? I've often said the season should go back to 154 games especially when MLB expanded the playoffs.But baseball kind of solved that problem by relying more and more on relief pitchers but now I think rosters need to be expanded because of that . I think MLB is putting a lot of stress on pitchers arms and not doing much to take the load off .

Oh I know exactly what you;re saying and agree with most of it. I don't think there's a chance either we get one or Harper or Machado. I've argued with the guys who think money is the only motivator to sign with whoever they end up with while I argued sure its the money 1st and foremost but 2 guys who haven't won a World Series will want the money and a chance to get the ring. Everything I've said up to this point is purely based on what happens if we do get one of them. Without one of them that changes everything just as getting one of them changes everything. I keep imagining Eloy being a great player right away and Moncada stepping up in a big way and Kopech not having the kind of problems Gio and Lopez have experienced even though I'm sure he will. Rodon could be an ace but he could also be the same guy we've seen over and over with dominant runs only to fall back or get injured. I'm basing everything on best case scenarios and a lot of things happening that aren't likely to happen, I know deep down that it's a year too early but I can't stop myself from dreaming bigger. The sooner we start to realize that our path to the playoffs might be quicker than anticipated due to our weak division the better. If we cant compete or get significantly better next year I think it limits the chance of success in 2020 and I keep seeing the timeline for success being pushed further away based on waiting for more prospects, If in 2020 we say OK prospects are here, now we sign free agents and expect it to all come together all at once is just as unrealistic as me wanting to go for it next year because position player prospects are just as likely to have the same kind of growing pains the pitchers do.

Another day that Yoyo doesn't K is a good day, and it rhymes

Today is a clunker no doubt but we all know the sucky Sox are bound to show up more than a few more times this year. Hell we beat the Red Sox 8-0 and we are going to have our share of lopsided losses too the rest of the way. Even the recent pitching surge is going to have its off days. No one is a complete product yet.

Hell there might even be amateurs t shirt makers outside the stadium now selling the Chain t shirts version. I always think of the Fleetwood Mac song "The Chain" when discussing this.

To each their own . I'm looking forward to seeing what happens. It's my personal belief that one must take affirmative action and be aggressive when putting this all together . Patience is great and i'm sure that it can reap many benefits but the guys that matter most are in the 2019 and 2020 FA classes and I truly loathe the idea that we strike out this year wait for 2020 thus increasing our odds of failing.

It's good to have another knowledgeable guy on board here and I hope you continue posting often. I'm an old school guy admittedly and respect the hell out of sabremetrics with the caveat that only the people that look at just about every sabremetric stats are truly worthy of using them. You might be that guy. I don't know. Very often on message boards, and I have been here on Soxtalk for 14 years, I rarely ever see them used them correctly and often in isolation from other sabremetric stats. For example. I've seen the FIP/xFIP and other stats used to support arguments but some believe things like weak contact or barrel rate also is a useful indicator . It's hard to explain because it just take a ton of knowledge and I don't have the time, knowledge or mathematics abilities to use it myself. That's why teams use a whole staff of sabre guys. Welcome and stick around for the good times ahead.

If you believe the Sox go after Harper why would he sign with us besides the money ? Do you think he wants to wait around for Robert, Rutherford, Adolfo etc to come up in 2 more years without winning ? No, you sign him and things accelerate a lot more quickly . The only way to get one of the big boys is to offer a lot of money and show them how we plan to win as quickly as possible . If you sign Harper early. He can even act as a recruiter to other guys. After this year most if not all of the SP should be good for a full season with occasional phantom injuries and even a 5th starter like eww Shields. If Cease is killing it again in the minors and the Sox look like they can make the playoffs you start limiting his innings around June/July to keep him fresher perhaps as an October starter but maybe more as a reliever. I know its all highly unlikely but it all hinges on signing one of the top guns. then the dominoes start to fall.

Dream big my brother . No sense limiting the dream, If you read the rest of the last 3 pages of the thread I'm sure you have seen why I think it's possible. The as short as possible scenario is that : 1. Sign Machado or Harper 2. Eloy is close to as good as he was in the minors and Moncada makes a big leap forward. 3. Sign 2 of the following depending on which one of Harper or Machado we add. Which means they have to be signed fairly early. Michael Brantley, Aj Pollock, Josh Donaldson/ Moustaskas , Marwin Gonzales and both have to have good years. 4, Rodon, Kopech, Giolito, and Lopez are all as reliable as we hope they will become. 5. Most of the young bullpen arms have good seasons. 6. Tim Anderson continues to improve, Abreu is Abreu. 7. Despite the badness that has been Adam Engel he is a 1 WAR player . If he can keep up his recent magic act and become a 1.5-2.0 WAR player it's gravy. 8. Good health Sox have the money . Those better at figuring payroll and potential WAR for everything I've said ( no matter how unlikely it is) can try figure out if what I think is possible is possible by adding up projected WAR by assignment numbers to everything I just wrote But in my head it means a playoff team. Even a very good playoff team .

I am with many many good things happening starting with one of Machado and Harper Then things really start to get interesting. Granted I don't have much faith in that happening but ya never know.

Well we also missed David Price but yea just gotta believe we can sign a big fish, Eloy is the besss with the Sox , and Moncada also making a big leap along with a few of the few secondary FA's I mentioned. Would have to be the perfect storm but it's not that impossible to imagine.

In my OP to start the thread I didn't think 2019 could be a playoff year either, Now I'm having seconds thoughts on that .Imagine Rodon . Kopech Gio and Lopez all being good next year and El0y being good to great and all the BP kids having strong years. The 2 series against the Yanks and Red Sox made me rethink it all.Then if you sign a Machado or Harper and/or Donaldson/Brantley/Pollock/Marwin Gonzales (1 or 2 of them if we land one of the big boys) and they do good. Then you actually are pushing for a WC berth with the chance to add at the trade deadline. Granted it's a foolish dream but if you actually land Machado or Harper all bets are off.

I rather be lucky than good but lucky and good is even better.

But you just said Pollock wasn't a decent CF or at least not worth the numbers being thrown around now. I like having a defensive OF of Engel and Brantley more then I do Pollock and Delmonicio . Not as good offensively but I like Brantley chance of still producing at his current level a lot better than Pollocks. Make the pitchers better by making the defense better. I have been wanting Engel out like everyone else but it's getting harder and harder to say that because of this little run of hitting he's been on plus with every baseball fan in America now knowing who he is because of the week or robberies he committed. I could change my thinking if he still sucks the rest of the season. Nothing written in stone now.

Not all in, just a big push year. It could end up being all in if everything happens right like what happened to the 2005 Sox. If we get a Machado or Harper you think the Sox are just going to sit on their hands afterwards? Hell no that would greatly accelerate the rebuild and every year is all in. Remember Eloy for almost the whole season next year too.

Yep that and the fact the Sox have done poorly with NL players transitioning to the AL . which if why I like Brantley and his WAR this year is better than any of Pollocks last 3 years. The Sox could live with Engel in CF if we get Machado and Brantley or get Donaldson and he bounces back big time and Brantley. Then you can try to upgrade CF at the trade deadline.

Then you rely on 2020. FA class .What happens if that turns out bad ?

Well lets face it. If we want to win a WS we can't have every contract work out perfectly. There is going to be some years on some contracts that just don't work perfectly. The main thing is not to have those FA contracts be totally useless. Good guys you sign can always be flipped if a prospect comes on like gangbusters You increase the talent of position players both offensively and defensively they are a lot easier to trade than guys like Davidson, Delmonico and Avi.

I don't think the Sox even have a core . They have Anderson, Moncada maybe Abreu if not traded and the young SP and RP. If we sign a Harper, Machado or a Brantley, or Pollock or any 2 of them things change very very quickly .

I'm just wondering how good of a CF Pollock is and how long with injuries piling up will he be able to play there, which is why I mentioned Brantley before him along with being an AL player. I like that Delmonico takes walk, shows some pop but ultimately the Sox are going to need a 4th OF for a few years until Robert of Basabe or Gonzales is ready. I can't count on any of those guys to actually make it. You'd think 1 of the 3 would but how good will that 1 be ? When you think 4th OF I don't think Delmoico. But I do think Basabe , Robert or Gonzales can fill that role is they don't develop into starters as we all hope. All this thinking is going under the assumption the FO MIGHT think we can compete next year. There could be huge turnover in the roster this winter .

Brantley is one guy who might get a QO from the Indians . Whats that now $17 -18M ?

I think you're right that he gets a 3 or 4 year deal but we are talking about winning a World Series here and possibly even being in the mix for a playoff run next year if the Sox FO decides the 2nd half turnaround accelerates things. If you offer 2 years you won't get him. If you were to put him on the Sox this year he's easily our best 2 way player. He could be the next JD Dye ( less power better D ) Sure he might decline but as of right now hes a very useful and very good player and is a huge upgrade over what he have. Also we need to start signing some good free agents as soon as this year. Even if we go after Harper and Machado with the hopes of getting one of them odds are we won't get either. Then everything is dependent of landing Arenado or Rendon in 2020. What if we also strike out in the 2020 FA class? Every good player like Brantley past the age of 30 is not going to want just a 2 year contract. Even with the injury prone year and problems throwing that Josh Donaldson has had is still probably worthy of a 2 year deal while being 1.5 years older than Brantley. Maybe Pollock is a better choice being able to play CF and a bit younger but he also is coming from the NL and hasn't had as strong a season this year as Brantley because of injuries. I'm good with either one.

There's nothing 2nd tier ( unless you mean not a superstar ) about him. He has a 2.4 WAR , 357 OBP, .822 OPS ,OPS+ of 119 and would defensively play a better corner OF position than anyone we have. He won't turn 32 till the middle of May. He also is very familiar with AL and AL central pitching and would be the ideal bridge guy to some of our A+ and AA OF's.

Sign a FA OF like Harper Brantley or Pollock and it gets even worse for Avi, Delmonico, Engel, Leury, Cordell . But we knew it was coming and I wouldn't be at all opposed to it happening next year. I think Palka is pretty safe and Davidson can play 3rd and 1st and despite others misgivings. he's taken more walks and his OPS is pretty good. Keep the guys who walk with power. The rest will have to go.

I think all pitchers are on an IP limit relative to what they did in previous year and how much they want to increase that amount.