CaliSoxFanViaSWside

QUOTE (FT35 @ Dec 5, 2017 -> 01:59 PM) Like everyone else, I'm just not sure. And I'm mostly not sure if the research and his numbers tell us as much of the true story as the logic behind them does. He had 2 off-years stemming from a major knee injury and the subsequent conditioning effects of...having a major knee injury. The "healthy numbers" have been there and been pretty consistent. Like Dam8610 pointed out earlier if you plug his missed month and a half numbers into his stat line from last hear you'd have a 25 HR player. Now would the average still be .330 with a month and a half of AB's factored in? Maybe, maybe not. But plugging in another 45 days of stats, an OF with a line of .315-.330/90/25/100?? would be in pretty elite company with other MLB OF's. To see all things past/recent past lead to producing a line like this is encouraging since all the scouting that went into acquiring him pointed to this type of potential. He might have been this player all along underneath the injury/long rehab process. We certainly thought he was when we traded for him. Why on EARTH would we have resigned him after the absolute disaster the previous 2 seasons!?!? There's something more behind the numbers to Avi Garcia that we might not realize. I thought it was a shoulder injury when he dove after a ball and landed wrong.

QUOTE (greg775 @ Dec 5, 2017 -> 01:14 PM) Not trying to flame (you see I've been quiet lately), but your two sentences got me thinking. I wonder how many players you can say that about in terms of "regression." There will be regression? Hmmm. ... I'd say of all the players who hit over .320 and hit 25-35 home runs you can expect regression next season. Why do we rate our own so harshly? Anybody who had a GREAT season, expect regression. Give me a percentage. 80 percent of all guys expect regression? Don't eat your own. Mainly because that .392 BABIP he put up which was best in the AL maybe in all of MLB can't continue . It was phenomenally high > If you know anything about my stance on Avi ( which apparently you don't) I have been one of his biggest supporters over the years and even though the batting average is likely to drop he could improve his slugging which would make him just as valuable if not more so than last year. That won't be easy though since he goes to right and right center so often. Out of his 18 HR's last year maybe 1 or 2 went to left field if you don't count left center. He'll have to learn to yank the ball a little more often to hit more HR's .

QUOTE (Buehrle>Wood @ Dec 4, 2017 -> 11:30 AM) Catcher list looks very interesting. Don't think there's a need there though. Don't get protecting Basabe (or a few other names) over Guerrero at all. Nestor Cortes has some great numbers for a loogy. No idea what his profile actually is. http://forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/ind...tor-cortes-lhp/ Basically an undersized crafty lefty whi uses deception and different arm angles and pitch speeds ranging from slow to slower.

QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Dec 4, 2017 -> 11:05 AM) Yep. I guess we could try to grab another team's? Exactly what I was thinking. Nestor Cortes looks particularly interesting. Franmil Reyes an OF the Padres let go also would be a great pick.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Dec 4, 2017 -> 10:28 AM) You can't use the xwOBA to prove a point and then discredit it in the next breath. If you want to use his actual wOBA, then you're back into the original argument that his BABIP made him lucky. Also, a 30 point difference in wOBA is huge. The way I took the article was that a .353 wOBA would have "still been good," which it would have, just not nearly AS good, and well within shouting distance of mediocre when you factor in standard regression, especially when you consider how drastically different his season was than his career. I know I am at a disadvantage when using modern stats with you because you seem to have a grasp on them whereas I don't. But the writer of the article (pnoles the Sox math champ) seems to disagree with you using the same stats which he seems to understand so I really don't know what else to say to you. You think the .32 difference between the xwOBA and the w OBA is huge and indicates a larger am,ount of luck when he doesn't think it plays a huge roll when determining the luck factor. But I will keep trying ,here is one you may not have seen with another writer looking at modern stats and thinking Avi might just be pretty good. https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2017/9/12...-good-white-sox

QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Dec 4, 2017 -> 07:58 AM) This is something that would worry me about a long-term deal. He's a big guy who has always run hard. At some point, he won't be quick anymore. I still need to see about another half a season before I want to extend him. In my never ending quest to figure out how Avi became what we saw last year. I am more convinced than ever it was because of the better conditioning and weight loss. . I truly believe if we see a bulked up Avi again we will see the old Avi. If he continues to dedicate himself by staying a well conditioned athlete we will see more of the new Avi. I was looking at the ESPN hot zone on Avi to see what his hot zones were last year in comparison to previous years and the one thing that jumped out was how much better he hit within the strike zone especially high in the strike zone . I think when he was heavier he was too upper body heavy and his swing was less fluid because of the mass. Now it is much looser, more fluid and quicker in the zone. The hot zone divides the strike zone into 9 sections and in 2017 there was only 1 of those 9 sections that Avi didn't hit well. In the 3 previous year there were always 4 of the 9 zones where Avi did poorly. Also because of the better conditioning he was faster and became a better fielder. SO for those of you looking for a hint on how he will fare next year (if not traded) keep an eye on his weight. If he ever starts learning the strike zone better and taking more walks the new Avi could be even better. http://www.espn.com/mlb/player/hotzones/_/.../avisail-garcia

So are we all going to call him Beef ?

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Dec 4, 2017 -> 09:31 AM) I wonder if the Cubs get them if their moron fans will break out the racist t-shirts again. Does Ohtani have a twitter account yet ? If he does, a tweet with a few articles and pictures of the shirt may be enough to eliminate the Cubs shortly. With such little time to pick a team and most of it dedicated to going over each team's presentation and questionnaire answers I'd imagine that whole Fukadome situation was overlooked.

QUOTE (miracleon35th @ Dec 4, 2017 -> 09:12 AM) How many players hit .330 over the course of an entire season during any time in their career? There is a lot of skepticism that is not tied to reality - reality in this case being a player who has improved his plate discipline, has lost a lot of weight and has greatly improved his physical conditioning. He looks quicker and no doubt has more flexibility with the weight ;loss. In addition, he has effectively countered the strategy of pitching him low outside pitches by anticipating those pitches and taking them to right field. I see a progression in Avi's power numbers when pitchers start abandoning that strategy and try to get him out on the inside part of the plate more. I would not trade Avi unless a no-miss blue chip prospect is included plus one or two more highly rated prospects. This guy is a stud...one of the best hitters in the league and he might only get better adding power numbers. I don't like to argue against anyone who is pro-Avi but he has always had a knack for going to right field. I always thought pitching him inside was a better strategy. He has a tendency to lean toward the plate on his swing and his hand injuries have come because of getting hit by pitches because of that "lean" and although some others have pointed that he pulled the ball more I just haven't seen enough of it to think he can handle inside pitches well yet. He hits well enough to left center but to really become a power hitter he'll have to do much better lifting and pulling and that will be a bigger challenge to him than continuing going to right field . I wouldn't call him a stud , just a guy who made strides to improve himself that paid off for 1 season. That is fair as much as those who write him off because of luck is unfair. There will be regression. it's a matter of how much regression we have been debating.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Dec 4, 2017 -> 08:47 AM) I did read the whole article, back when it came out. He was definitely significantly lucky, and you (and the article) addressed the luck component. My point is that you DIDN'T address the regression component. Whenever anyone has a breakout/career outlier season, the most likely thing to follow is regression toward career averages, simply by definition of it being an outlier season. Even if Avisail actually and sustainably improved, he's still likely to regress. And if the "improvement" was to a tune of a .353 wOBA, there isn't a ton of room for regression before he's league average. Which, keep in mind, is still a huge improvement over what he's been, but it isn't worth extending at market rates and it isn't worth potentially sacrificing a decent return in year two of a rebuild. You keep saying a .353 wOBA but it was .385 . The .353 is xwOBA and the article says the difference between the two is not overly high enough to say the luck factor was as significant as just looking at BABIP might suggest.

QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Dec 4, 2017 -> 07:58 AM) This is something that would worry me about a long-term deal. He's a big guy who has always run hard. At some point, he won't be quick anymore. I still need to see about another half a season before I want to extend him. I think waiting for another half season is totally fair and open minded since even I have to admit one season isn't enough to justify an extension. I didn't think so with Tim Anderson and even if I have believed in Avi for years that doesn't trump common sense.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Dec 4, 2017 -> 08:06 AM) League average wOBA for a RF is .330. If his best season should have been a .353, it doesn't take much regression to be league average. And a league average bat with bad but maybe improving defense in RF is a below average player. So you disagree with the whole premise that Avi wasn't significantly lucky last year ? Not sure you or maybe its me because you are certainly more in tune with stats than I am but I don't think that .353 figure you mentioned was a best season scenario , it's his expected xwOBA not wOBA based on his batted ball stats. His actual wOBA was .385. I hope you read the whole article.

QUOTE (Jose Abreu @ Dec 3, 2017 -> 11:39 AM) I don't think that the ball is the sole reason for his improvement, nor do I think it's the biggest reason. I just wanted to point out that it is at least a factor. The walk rate/K rate changes are more likely just a better approach, or pitchers respecting him more. You probably made more of an argument for Avi than against him with the juiced ball argument since Avi isn't known for being a fly ball hitter and the juiced ball definitely helped those who are with the record numbers of HR's hit. Sure Avi had a career high in HR's but certainly HR's did not play a significant factor in his batting average.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Dec 2, 2017 -> 07:20 PM) Read the article I mentioned. His BABIP was driven by an unusually high batting average on ground balls. If it were driven by him actualling hitting more line drives that would be one thing, but a big chunk of those grounders will likely turn into outs next year. His BABIP will almost certainly fall by a good 40+ points next year and that’s going to radically impact his offensive production. If he doesn’t learn to get more loft, he’s suddenly a 2ish WAR OF and that assumes his defensive & baserunning improvements stick. Here's an article from SSS about BABIP and if Avi really was lucky as some suggest . here is the conclusion but read the whole article to fully understand the data. https://www.southsidesox.com/2017/10/11/164...ir-side-in-2017 "It’s widely believed that Garcia’s .392 BABIP has fueled his stellar season. That’s true to a degree, but xwOBA doesn’t see him falling off all that hard. The .353 figure above still suggests he’s a very good hitter even without the fortuitous bounces. With his vastly improved defense in right field, Garcia looks the part of a well above-average player even when his luck comes back to earth." It also says that ground balls go for hits 24% of the time while fly balls are 21% . Now this info was from 2014 so there is the caveat that with many more HR's during 2017 that fly balls produce a higher percentage now. Also that xwOBA doesn't take the players speed into consideration . Avi had many infield hits and his speed and hustle down the first base line no doubt was a factor so speed isn't really luck it's just part of a players skill set. Now Avi no doubt caught a few infielders off guard with his improved speed and some of those hits were just a fielder taking his sweet time and Avi made them pay for it so those kind of hits most likely won't happen again. But overall when you take speed and xwOBA into consideration Avi was not as significantly lucky as many suggest.

QUOTE (hi8is @ Dec 3, 2017 -> 02:22 AM) Seems to me that your response qualifies more so for gobbledygook than CaliSoxFanViaSWside's original post. I partially wanted to point this out just because gobbledygook is oh so fun to say... so... gobbledygook, gobbledygook, gobbledygook, gobbledygook, gobbledygook, gobbledygook, gobbledygook, gobbledygook, gobbledygook, gobbledygook, gobbledygook, gobbledygook, gobbledygook, gobbledygook, gobbledygook, gobbledygook, gobbledygook, gobbledygook, gobbledygook, gobbledygook, gobbledygook, gobbledygook, gobbledygook, gobbledygook, gobbledygook, gobbledygook, gobbledygook, gobbledygook, gobbledygook, gobbledygook, gobbledygook, gobbledygook, gobbledygook, gobbledygook, gobbledygook, gobbledygook. gobbledygook! GOBBLEDYGOOooooooooK!!!!! I actually think he meant to quote your" wah wah wah " post rather than my" it's fun" post. Balta and me have actually been on the same side of the Avi argument and your post about wah wah came right after his on standard deviation.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Dec 4, 2017 -> 06:16 AM) I'm okay knowing that he didn't choose the White Sox because he wanted to be with a team that had something we couldn't have -- like being on the West Coast, or having a better Japanese-American population. But it would really hurt knowing he was willing to choose Chicago despite all that, and that the Cubs simply beat us at pitching him. Because if he's considering the Padres, you know the contention window thing doesn't matter. Maybe he just didn't like bunting.

QUOTE (hi8is @ Dec 2, 2017 -> 09:01 PM) After months and months of the same back and forth exchange - it's now become... To me it's fun even more so now than when I was challenging everyone about Avi. At least now a few have converted. Next year if he doesn't get traded a few more probably twice as many with 2 good seasons in a row.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Nov 29, 2017 -> 09:05 PM) If so, man, I'll gladly wear it. I'm still not on board, simply because I saw better results this year from the same old (in my eyes) flawed process, and I just can't see the objective evidence that it'll continue. But I've always said I hope I'm wrong about him, and I really do. My question to you is if the process is so flawed how did he do soooo much better than anything he had previously done? I can understand the flawed process yielding incrementally better results but not to the extent that he blew previous numbers away.

QUOTE (Jack Parkman @ Dec 2, 2017 -> 06:09 PM) If you look at the data on Avi there is no reason why anyone should trade for him. If you believe the underlying stats, 2017 was an extreme outlier, and is highly unlikely to be repeated, and a team would be giving up valuable assets for someone who would be a non-tender candidate in the 2018-19 offseason. I posted in the Avi thread about this. It only takes one sucker though, and if Hahn gets an offer of anyone who is or could be a prospect, he should take it and run. It's sort of funny how a guy who hit .330 with near 20 HR's and 80 RBI improved his defense , his speed, his base running , cut down on his K's , had career highs in doubles , triples, HR, WAR, OBP, wRC+, OPS, OPS+, Total bases and was an All Star is treated with such disdain ,as if all those things just magically appeared without dedication and hard work to actually improve himself. Will he ever have such a high BABIP again ? Probably not but give the guy some credit. Hitting.330 and the rest of it is not just some result of the stars aligning right or making a deal with the devil .

Tough choice. I really like Avi and think he will continue to do well but he still has just the one good year.. Abreu is much older than Avi in baseball years but has been productive although not great 1/2 the time. Abreu is likely to be a better bet for short term production but Avi, if legit, the better choice for long term production. Abreu is the safe choice if you want the best chance at being right . Avi the best bet if you truly want a piece that is certainly young enough to be useful to the rebuild. It's really a toss up so I'll go with Avi just to show faith in him. Since I had faith in him when he sucked I have to have faith in him going forward. Edit: Oops the question was who would you trade and I picked Avi when I wanted to pick Jose .

QUOTE (ChiliIrishHammock24 @ Dec 1, 2017 -> 10:05 PM) I don't even like The Office, but that's a pretty great reference by Hahn. But maybe Hahn heard The Office is Ohtani's favorite show !

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Dec 1, 2017 -> 10:24 PM) If we acquired extra international money I don't think we could spend it on him? $200k is "max per player" for us right? I'd take some A-ball reliever for Smith. He's a nonterrible backup catcher. Unless we're carrying him as a DH he'll have to be moved, and there's always a dearth of positive cheap backup catchers. 300K Maybe I should've used a wink emoticon instead o.f the tongue to indicate it was in jest.

One thing is certain . The Sox are pursuing power bats, getting players ti fit our ball park.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Dec 1, 2017 -> 03:04 PM) Anyone think that we could get someone to take a trade flier on Kevan Smith? Give us back a reliever candidate or something like that? Slot money for the Ohtani push !

QUOTE (greg775 @ Nov 29, 2017 -> 07:48 PM) No. When Dick Allen heard Hahn speak and Hahn wasn't enthused about Avi or Abreu, I knew both would be gone this winter. It will happen. Dick was there. He heard it. So let it be written. So let it be done. Nonsense, what he heard was standard Hahn-speak ,means nothing. Meet my price and it shall be done on any player. Give me your 1st born child. That is Hahn 1st Commandment on veteran players in a rebuild.