bmags

Interesting. I think it's cool to reward Yoan for leading off.

It would require access to data they have, and they've spent money on it.

So your take is that by two years, he means literally next year? He thinks witt will be a fast riser. Some are. Some aren't allowed to. The argument that some are slower isn't an argument for why he would be.

The smartest organizations that have won a lot of games have spent loads on player development. That should be a huge tell that it matters greatly.

It's not that crazy. He'd be 19 basically at draft, Jo Addell was in AA last year at 19 (got injured) but could very well have been a 20/21 year old. Assuming HLL doesn't count much of his draft year, 2022 isn't that crazy for a top 3 high school draft pick to make it unless the team didn't want them up.

2 headed monster

I think it going 1. Rutschmann 2. Witt 3. Vaughn is pretty much a lock to me unless Vaughn goes off again and the royals take him.

Gonna be a punch to gut when Indy gets him ?

Also does having a suddenly great last year mean more than someone with Vaughns track record? I mean, it's hard to do better than a year with more home runs than strikeouts, but to have a year where that happens regardless is incredible.

Yeah I just don't see a scenario he gets past Royals.

m-m-m-m-m-m-MOCK DRAFT SEASON italics my own https://blogs.fangraphs.com/mock-draft-1-0-the-top-ten/

His issues can not be classified as "getting hurt"

He threw a fit to the media because harper was ejected and he was pitching so hard he felt sad.

I get it. I guess I just don't trust in him regardless, hard to plan much on a guy who every odd year forgets how to throw a baseball. I'd rather just put him on track for his highest potential value because it just feels like he's such a "wildcard" anyway

Just want to be clear I didn't mean that as a negative. I loved watching Trayce and feel like his back injury did him in.

If he breaks again what are the odds he could be a late inning reliever anyway

I had a new water line put in and it tore up part of the lawn. I ended up putting seed down a few weeks ago just before the heavy rain. Really sprouted up nicely last week.

You will not be able to have a .345 obp when you cannot connect to fastballs down the middle of the plate.

Hitting a baseball is hard.

He reminds me so much of watching Trayce in his first season.

I completely disagree. The pen will always be there as an option. He would be so much more valuable as a starter. I mean, maybe we try him as a 4 inning guy. Something, but he can be a 1 inning pitcher whenever, we don't need to prepare him for that. If we can show he can throw 4 dominant innings, we could trade him for something else. If we say he's a 1 inning pitcher in the minors...that has zero value outside of him being able to prove it in the bigs. And even then maybe he's just a middle reliever. It's a poor use of his talent.

The other thing I want to mention is when I think about player dev, it's not just about creating stars - it's the getting the most out of every player, turning a few more 40 guys into 45s. That's where I see orgs like LA and HOU and STL being especially good, constantly creating depth and acceptable performances. I think people get too caught up in the performance of our top draft picks, but this really focuses on the best value actually being in turning more international and round 3-10 guys into either ML pieces or acceptable tradebait. That's where the big value wins are.

I believe FVs for BA are only in increments of 5, same as fangraphs. In the paragraph tehy handchecked the numbers and found only discrepancies of 5 or 10, which they chalked up to difference of opinion. This was important mainly as a check to make sure their adjustment of the BA numbers - which equated to more of a range figure (ceiling FV) than what they wanted which was the more traditional FV fangraphs uses. I think they wanted to avoid having artificially created outliers. But BA had many more grades than fangraphs to check, so what I don't know is if what they chalked up here as acceptable with the r2 check with fangraphs, is enough of a sample to say "yeah, our adjustments are good across the board", because fangraphs only has grades on usually top prospects, their adjustments on the lower bound may be worse.

I actually don't think it's forced and makes complete sense. When she was an essos she claimed a lot of morality and power from the ending of slavery, but in westeros she has to deal with people who do have a reference point for her - the targaryen rule (and specifically her father) they experienced and were crushed under. She does not have a moral claim with the ending of slavery, since they have none. So they do not respect her power in a way that is different for her than in essos where she was just an unknown.

BA which had the most available prospect grades does not use a straight forward FV, so they had to make adjustments to BAs scores to get a singular FV value, then they judged that against fangraphs FV value to validate if that has significantly altered, but you would not expect two separate scouting sites to have a perfect correlation in scores.