bmags

nice to see you posting VAFan.

Yeah that would be one consideration. And again, it may be largely anecdotal on my part. But certainly with stars, it seemed pronounced. Think about how our 05 -08 run was largely fueled with free agents over 30! The other I thought of was that maybe pitching velocity hit a tipping point where suddenly it became too consistently fast for these players with declining bat speed to keep up on fastballs. And suddenly while they previously could have maintained average production in later years they were suddenly below average and more expensive. Total theory. No idea.

I wouldn't put chris davis as first tier. His market was pretty bad and then all the sudden baltimores deal came out and people were pretty stunned. Some of those were from a different time, but pujols was on the heel of arod who did decent on his second deal. It was on pujols deal where the aging curve seemed to fall off a cliff. I'm not sure I've ever seen this definitively shown, but it sure seemed like around 2011-12 it got a lot worse with ages 31 on.

I'm sure it was but I am pretty sure in that same article it said they expected him to make a decision over the new year.

Hard to tell. Also read Lozano asked for "final" offers before new years as manny wanted to make a decision. That jives with around when bucket came on. They then sat on it, which also may be when sox said they were frustrated things weren't finalizing. Was the one they submitted then a 175 offer or a 250 offer? I tend to think passan was right, and it may not have been 250 guaranteed but it was better than vesting options, then sox guaranteed and added some of the years and options later down the line. Who knows.

Thanks! I'm going to quote and add this to the 2019 j2 thread edit: NVM! I assumed this was a rumord pickup for next year, misread!

Some didnt light the world on fire as players, but darvish, profar, leonys martin and martin perez all were credited to preller. Profar, martin and perez were all top prospects at one point in time.

A stadium full of packed bulls fans hasn't swayed JR, an empty stadium of pissed sox fans hasn't swayed JR.

I am excited to hear their influence this year. But I wish it had not taken two years.

Because had they improved his defense to the extent that Oakland did where he was passable as a SS, he would have been more valuable to the franchise either as a trade chip or player. And also that being able to identify marcus semien's that can improve to passable players prevent you from needing to buy passable talent instead of grouping that additional money or prospects to get actual impact talent. Overall, sox need to maximize value out of as many prospects as possible, and that additional margin of value will pay off regardless of whether it becomes a super star machine or just provides a bunch of average depth.

https://www.theringer.com/mlb/2018/9/21/17885820/pitch-framing-strike-zone-jorge-alfaro-tyler-flowers Baseball has become much better in framing since it was identified as a skill, so it can most definitely be improved upon. I will counter that baseball has many organizations that seem to have more players that "figure it out", and that the white sox do not. You again, are only comparing the white sox to the white sox, so having narvaez at all is development, to the same idea that Trayce Thompson is a great example of developing a High School draft pick. He made the major leagues after all. The value that the sox have received from their farm system is poor, and I don't buy that it's all scouting. Marco Paddy was a great scout in toronto, he comes here and suddenly his players can't get out of A ball. Something is up.

So your stance is that player development is not actually an organizational skill, that players are either what they will be or not what they will be?

For the LG-heads CWS 2:10 With Basabe hurt, who's the Sox' OF prospect to watch after Ely and Robert? Eric A Longenhagen 2:10 Luis Gonzalez

It's a weak college SP draft and I'm not particularly big on HS pitching this high (better value to be in 11-20 range.)

Since I know asking for injury free from now on is too much, I will just ask for preference for health from our pitchers.

Maybe. But I've yet to see anyone in baseball say " we have found that investing in player development does not pay off". Per the bolded, not saying this will work with everyone, but I know that if you do it with everyone it can pay off more often than if you don't. And if it pays off once its incredibly valuable. Also we know that when asked around the league the sox are not mentioned often as advanced in player dev, we know the sox have not see great production in player development, and we haven't seen many examples of the white sox providing overwhelming resources like this through sox media. Fegan is good at this, he shows an org that provides analytics but I've never read a story like this before. What do we hear with the sox? "Stay Tall" "They gave me a cutter". That may align with their good pitcher health, but I've not seen anything on the position player front that has paid off or hit home like that.

Very excited to hear about fulmer.

Yeah, it's hard to understand what are just post hoc rationalizations. Obviously, the sox weren't supposed to be strong players for machado because their valuation model was correctly pointing to idea he was good, it was, in my interpretation, supposed to be that their financial flexibility should have allowed them to afford Manny on a price that exceeded others valuation models which meant they could get him. Obviously that was up to a point. But I thought the point was that we could afford machado at a level exceeding what we would normally target free agents.

I think a good point here is that while KW was able to get Jerry to buy off on higher major league budgets, it came at the cost of amateur and international scouting which came to haunt the sox and basically led to this lost decade.

In what amounts to be one of the more typical situations that Hahn keeps putting himself in: Zips projections came out. Chicago white Sox projected for .9 WAR Seattle Mariners projected for 1.1 WAR

Thank you to shack for providing clarification. I can't help but think when this is described that it sounds like Ned Stark going to king's landing. Sox have a lot of opinions on the way things ought to work. And by sox I think this ladders up to Jerry. And when other teams don't operate that way he gets mad, and years later it seems like it becomes an owner request in the next CBA so that the league behaves more like jerry should. But the way the sox ought to think it should work and the way it does work is often at odds and it puts them at a disadvantage when going for the big splashes like this.

I don't understand how this jives with being pissed off though. To me what you were saying earlier is they were mislead. But Lozano clearly told them higher numbers were needed and they balked. So sure, if KW is saying "I have never been so pissed off at misidentifying the market" then fine, but you seem to be implying it's not the sox fault, it's that they were mislead by Lozano,

Honestly guys what does this even mean, would any of us have valued home field advantage at $50 million? The sox should have known that manny wanted 1) Most money (if being generous, at least from teams not yankees) 2) a top contract that validated his place in the game. We know 300 was a big number for him, and vested options would not have been truly reported as part of what he signed for. It would have been sox sign manny for 8 for 250. Home field advantage is sox give manny a 10 year 300 mill contract, san diego gives manny a 10 year, 300 mill contract, and he signs with sox. It is not a 50 million difference.

Eh 1) it's kenny williams and when he has spoken to media last 5 years he's either been pissed or overly braggadocious 2) This aligns with my view of the owner and maybe org, that would be pissed at another org bidding against themselves and "overpaying" players and getting played by the agents, thus hurting the playing field for teams or however they view their fake constraints they've put on themselves for the last 2 decades.

Its interesting but I don't think so. The 300 mill really insures the player. Extra what, $6 million up front but missing out guaranteed 50 mill on back. I bet 8 for 275 with 5 year opt out would have done it despite lower money.