Balta1701

So here's an alternate concept. Opening caveats: last year I was vehemently opposed to Chisox59 and others' suggestion of picking up Craig Kimbrel's option and letting Rodon go. This year - I totally get where he's trying to go with this setup, addressing the LH issue in the OF which I have to admit is a major one. However, I believe he's left one major flaw in his roster design - that starting rotation. To put some numbers on this - Houston has gotten 24.7 fWAR out of their pitchers this year, best in the league. The White Sox have gotten 15.7 fWAR, 10th in the league. Cleveland is 9th at 16.5. 2.5 of that difference is out of the bullpen, which is just super frustrating given the boatloads of money spent there, but still leaves an enormous gap in the starters. If you look at the rotation, it looks even worse - Verlander Vs. Cease, McCullers vs. Lynn, Valdez vs. Kopech, Javier vs. Giolito, Urquidy or Garcia against 5th starter/Martin? Every one of those matchups favors the Astros right now. So the White Sox are already starting at a deficit, and they are losing Cueto in this setup who provided a desperately needed 2.1 fWAR. Keuchel only was a -0.3 fWAR player, so getting rid of Keuchel's starts is basically a rounding error. Between losing Cueto and already being 4 to 8 fWAR behind the really good teams with him, I submit that the starting rotation is a major problem for the 2023 White Sox as presented here. While Kopech has the largest upside, and Giolito does as well, the White Sox could add Nimmo to their roster and still wind up not good enough to keep up with the big teams. A guy like Heaney who put up <1 fWAR this season, signed for $9 million, leaves the White Sox with a starting rotation that will be wobbly the whole year at best, and which could straight up collapse given that Heaney has only thrown 61 innings this year and put up an ERA of 5.83 in 2021. It may still get them past Cleveland if a lot of things go right, but the Astros, Yankees, and other teams are better than that on paper. Thus, when I do this one, I'm fixing the starting rotation first and worrying about the LH bat as a backup plan. Given that, I'm going to do something I don't want to do, but that I don't see any way to seriously upgrade the rotation without doing. I need to target a pitcher who is in their arb years, who is affordable financially because I can't pay Rodon, who has more than 1 year of control because of what I have to trade, but who might actually be a guy their team might move. 1. Andrew Vaughn + Carlos Perez to Milwaukee for Brandon Woodruff or Corbin Burnes and Keston Hiura -I have no choice but to move Vaughn in a deal like this. I am unwilling to move Montgomery, and the White Sox have 0 other top 100 prospects who could catch someone's interest. 4 years of control on Vaughn + 6 years of control on Perez is going to get Milwaukee's interest. This gets me 2 years of control of a top of the rotation arm, and the next 2 years are all I care about for this team anyway. I have added about $10 million total with them. Hiura is a talented former prospect who has been up and down a lot, he makes my roster next year because he's going to Platoon with Sheets to start the year. Hiura may or may not be in arbitration next year, I think this depends on where he comes down relative to the Super-2 rules and that's a bit beyond me to figure out. Yes, I have just left myself with a 1b setup of Sheets and Hiura. I'm not thrilled about this either, but both of them hit RHP fairly well which the White Sox do need. Hiura can also play some 2b, so if Sosa is struggling, I could have Hiura at 2b and Sheets at 1b against right handed pitching. I am also open to other concepts here, I'm not sure they'd do it in the division, but could Vaughn interest the Guardians for Bieber? 2. I still definitely need OF help because yes, Eloy is going to DH. I've spent about $10 million and I think I have about $10 million to spend, so I'm priced out of Nimmo already even assuming no big payroll cuts. We finally have to go out and sign a mid-level, LH hitting OF. Thankfully there are likely to be several options here - Conforto if healthy, Pederson, Gallo, or here we go - spend $8 million on Cody Bellinger when the Dodgers choose not to offer him arbitration. He also adds another player who could fill in some time at 1b. So my lineup: Anderson SS Moncada 3b Robert CF (assuming his hand isn't being amputated) Jimenez (DH) Grandal (C) Hiura/Sheets (1b) Sosa/Gonzalez (2b) Pollock/Bellinger (LF) Colas/Bellinger (RF) Rotation: Cease Corbin Lynn Kopech Giolito Martin (6th starter) At the very least, this is a potentially dominant starting rotation, this is a starting rotation that has a shot at hanging with Houston. The lineup is not as good as the one in the first post, but I haven't pushed the payroll as much as the first post, and I am not starting from behind on pitching. Fix Moncada and get the lineup to take some walks and it still scores a bunch. Unfortunately, I don't see any easy way to fix both the starting rotation and grab Nimmo at the same time. that's the choice RH has made for us given the sheer number of bad moves he has made. Thus, I can't say that this is clearly better than going after Nimmo, and I can't be outraged if they went that route, because frankly there's a good chance that neither of them works. This is one version of how it looks if you try to fix the rotation and go with patches in the OF.

If the White Sox really want to keep him, that amount definitely outbids everyone else. More likely IMO is that if the White Sox don't go after him aggressively he sits around for most of the offseason and picks up a barely-major-league contract worth maybe $1-2 million at the end of spring training. His history of not contributing much is way too long for most teams to gamble on him with anything more than that.

So before I go into anything further I think the Cease and Kopech projections are notably under what they'll actually get. Cease is going to come in at worst 2nd for the Cy Young this year, he will go into an arb hearing in a strong position. When Giolito was Arb-1, he got $4.1 million. Corbin Burnes coming off a Cy Young caliber season was at $6.5 million this year in Arb 1. The record for an Arb-1 pitcher is apparently Keuchel at $7.25 million. Reynaldo Lopez got $2.1 million in his arb-1 year and that was coming off a 2020 where he had a 6.49 ERA. Compare that to the projection of Kopech at 40% lower? Carlos Rodon got $2.3 million in 2018 and he pitched 69 innings in 2017. Therefore I think both of the top pitchers, Cease and Kopech, are being projected substantially too low, and I think there's at least $5 million in additional spending coming for those 2, possibly more. You may be $1 million too high on Giolito, which could offset that a bit, but I also think you have to give an arbitration offer to Ruiz since we aren't sitting on a lot of replacements for him and that'll come in at like $1.25 million or something like that.

Even if Madrigal didn’t develop any more power than Kwan, the guy they had last May would be a seriously disruptive player especially if he became a stolen base threat. The Sox seriously misjudged his ability to stay healthy. Considering he was already banged up in more than one way when drafted, that’s the mistake.

For anyone who thought that Cairo was a magical solution I give you the last 3 games. Robert played 1 time and was still not physically able to play. The bullpen usage on Tuesday was straight up bizarre and almost certainly cost the game. The defense early in games was still comical. The offensive preparation was hilariously bad - how do you go into the biggest series of the year and take 1 walk in 3 games? And in general, Cleveland was far more motivated and prepared even though they were tired from a 5 games in 4 days series.

Last gasp division rival series. I expect the best focus and solid approaches from everyone right?

Just in case you were serious…no. MLB contains fully guaranteed contracts. He would have to be suspended or violate a personal conduct clause to the degree of an Ozuna or Bauer before you can do anything like that.

Seriously, biggest series of the year, Robert isn’t on the IL, but plays 1 game and is 0/5. Is there something important that happens if he reaches 3 years of service time? Some other reason why they wouldn’t IL him? This is insane he’s useless.

April: “why are you messing around with Pollock being on the paternity list? He pulled a muscle, put him on the IL, this is the dumbest thing I’ve ever seen. May: “Vaughn hasn’t played in a week why won’t you put him on the IL, this is the dumbest thing I’ve ever seen.” June: “you just gave away a game with only like 2 available pitchers in your bullpen because Hendriks is actually hurt and you tried to deny it. That’s not how elbows work! This is the dumbest thing I’ve ever seen.” September: cries.

So biggest series of the season, Luis Robert is active and on the 28 man roster, he plays 1 game, goes 0/5 with 2 K's. This...I just...There are no words. Schmooblygot?

If only a GM had some solution to a manager who plays guys constantly out of position.

Not a trade.

I understand the need for LH balance and for finding an actual OF, but I'm also looking at a pitching staff that was dramatically outperformed by the best staffs in the league and that is losing Cueto, and thinking that this team can't compete without an upgrade there as well.

I've seen worse coaching, but blah. How many pitchers exceeded their goals or outperformed expectations this year? Cease, Lambert, maybe Lopez, Cueto, and? Who didn't? Giolito, Lynn, Kopech, Keuchel, Hendriks, Graveman, Kelly, Bummer, Crochet, Ruiz, Foster, Diekman, Crick, Banks, Severino. Yeah some of them have no talent, but yeesh. And I'm going to be angry about the bullpen usage on Tuesday for weeks. So yeah, I won't miss him either.

You mean he gets to hire more coaches like Menechino and Katz? Awesome.

I think I can confidently add this as the 5th time most organizations would have fired him.

22,206. Tuesday was 23,242. Average per game this year was 24,453.

#changethegamenextyear

Lol we even let Cleveland rest their bullpen.

Well done.