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Everything posted by Balta1701
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Somehow his exit velocity has actually gone down since the last time I looked, now in the bottom 26% of the big leagues. His line drive rate is the lowest of his career. His expected batting average based on his contact profile right now is .208, almost right in line with his actual average. His BABIP is low compared to his career value because his contact is so weak. For a guy making this weak of contact a .263 BABIP is not shocking or unreasonable.
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Which teammate? He was listed in Canseco’s second book where he named people based on hearsay to cash in more on his first book but I didn’t recall a teammate.
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2011 Adam Dunn/NY Times >>> 2022 Yasmani Grandal
Balta1701 replied to caulfield12's topic in Pale Hose Talk
See everyone you’re missing the math. He’s in fact dividing the 2011 Adam Dunn by the New York Times. If we take the limit as the value of the times goes to 0, the value of the left hand side goes to infinity regardless of the value of Adam Dunn’s 2011 season, making the greater than expression true. -
In terms of WAR, he also had that totally unexplained and flat out awful couple of weeks in April where he was an error machine. He had 7 errors in 7 days in April, had another 2 Error game in May, and since coming off the IL on June 20th he has 3 errors. I have no real idea what was going on in April, but I do think it wasn't just him as Abreu and several other people around the infield were utter messes at the same time.
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Under the statcast numbers, it stands out how low his launch angle currently is. All numbers in degrees: 2019: 8.7 2020: 6.7 2021: 4.3 2022: 3.6 He's making solid contact, his K-rate is actually notably down from last year, his exit velocity is slightly down from last year but identical to what it was in 2019 and in-between 2020 and 2021. He's just hitting the ball straight into the ground. He's getting on top of the ball at a career high 40.7% clip, and getting under the ball at a career low 10.7% clip. He's hitting the ball to the opposite field a career high 30.7% of the time.
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Bah, big difference between someone who is 18 and someone who is 24 for a team selling players off. Most rebuilding teams will be after the ceiling of the 18 year old rather than the closer to MLB, older, lower ceiling guy. They prefer the small chance of a true breakout from the younger guy. (Notably, the one team I can think of that does not do this is Oakland).
