Balta1701

Eloy Robert Robert

One difference is that the US is actually recommending people stay home if they're sick and wash their hands. Even minor stuff like that can make a large difference compared to no response at all. I've seen published reports where effective handwashing can cut the spreading rate by 50%. I think most would say the US in these areas right now is probably comparable to where Wuhan was right around New Years - lots of people infected, on the verge of it going much larger. The limited things the local governments are doing will slow it down somewhat, but the lack of national action to limit travel could make it balloon very soon. I'm in Texas, all my students head out on spring break next week, and South by Southwest is still happening in Austin, even though some of the major corporate exhibitors have pulled out. The city can't afford to lose an event that brings in half a billion dollars or so a year, and it's a perfect disease transmission setting. Things like that could quite easily counter-act any steps taken by the local authorities in Washington and California. Notably - the University of Washington just closed its doors for a month starting on Monday.

SoxMachine says it's a 5 year deal with this being season 1 of the 5.

With where this org has been, there is potential to be the #1 team in the entire league for top %age revenue growth over the next 5 years.

Hopefully the team makes the playoffs a few times in there. If so, revenue should grow at a rate sufficient to keep up with the current contracts.

Yeah, I don't think a team would trade for a backup catcher right now just because a guy might not be able to catch 90 games. If someone got hurt from what they have, or they came out in April and a player was clearly struggling way more than they thought, that would make a team make a move, but hard to see them giving up a player of value for a catcher in March just because they're not sure if theirs will be good enough.

Robinson Chirinos is there and he wasn't bad for the Astros last year, especially once he got to the Astros his framing numbers weren't bad and he's decent offensively. He didn't get hurt did he? I don't see anything on the Google but if there's a recent ST injury who knows if it would show up.

I know the catching spots around the league aren't great, but is anyone in truly terrible shape? Already had a major injury or something like that, such that they'd come into this with a major need?

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/03/how-many-americans-have-been-tested-coronavirus/607597/?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=share We're going to be the #2 country in the world for cases by the time testing catches up.

If he's hurt, yes. The first-year arb salary is now set by Bellinger who just went in at $11.5 million - that's the going rate for a near-MVP in the first year right now. That's a raise from $600k

I still feel bad for the contract Scottie Pippen signed in the early 1990s.

Is he hurt? Seriously, like this contract and this statement are what I'd expect if people knew he had just blown out his knee. In his first 3 arb years, Bryant has mad $42 million, and that's while missing 1/3 of a year with a shoulder problem. If he was healthy, he'd make $50 million+ the next 4 seasons.

That is an awful deal for Yoan Moncada. He's not hurt is he?

Well that should be the biggest contract in team history.

I'd be really pissed and still have no idea how to deal with it a month later. I wouldn't be defending them, but I'm not sure what I'd be saying. I'm still to this day trying to figure out how to deal mentally with Pablo Ozuna.

Technically the average person should not be purchasing an N-95 mask right now either. Maybe once supplies are high enough. The average person should also not be purchasing those if they haven't explicitly been fitted for them.

Depends on the place but I've read something like $1500. So if you're sick, you're better off just going to work if you don't have insurance, as the system wants.

Taking them #1 - yeah I buy that as too high of a risk. Sitting at #11? Go for it. If there's a TJS in there, you still hope the player recovers.

TBH, yeah this is not the worst idea. Does everyone here have an answer for what they'd do if they needed a couple weeks of supplies right now?

1. They also lost several draft picks, including their first 2 rounds in 2016, in order to sign free agents to push them over the top. Combine that with 2017 being at the bottom of the first round and you've got a state where that is likely to happen. 2. They also had a top 30 prospect on the mound, a guy named Dylan Cease, who would be in their rotation this year if winning "Right now" wasn't a priority to them in 2017 when they dealt that player away. That 2017 Cubs team was on a path to missing the playoffs before they traded away that guy, and they went on a run in the 2nd half. Which brings us right back to the point - even if you're drafting guys who will contribute, unless you're ok with being the Twins and knocked out of the playoffs a couple years in a row before players move on, that's the kind of aggressive move you have to make to put yourself over the top. I thought that the Quintana trade was a very smart one for Theo at the time, and I believe most of us did; pay a high price, but get a really strong pitcher under control for 4 years.

The White Sox's rotation is going to contain Giolito (drafted out of high school), Dylan Cease (drafted out of high school), and eventually Michael Kopech (drafted out of high school). There might be some elbow work in there, but...

If it were that simple, some team would have figured it out. The year Heyward signed with the Cubs, the White Sox strongly considered and may have had a comparable offer out for Alex Gordon to take over RF - the Royals paid him $72 million for <4 wins. It's only blind luck that the White Sox didn't sign that deal, as they had a comparable offer out for that player. You can't predict these flops in advance. If I were in the Cubs' position, I'd have done that exact same deal for Quintana unless I had some scout screaming to me that he's completely lost his stuff, and he sure didn't look like it at the time. If you don't understand that signing 4 guys for $60 million is likely to wind you up with 2 guys you're paying $15 million to who are completely worthless very quickly, then you're better off not signing anyone. If you don't understand that trading away a prospect has a good chance of having it bite you in the arse completely, you're better off not making those trades. And if you don't...then you miss out on the ones that work.

Please tell me the answer for how a team can sign only good contracts, because I haven't yet seen any team figure that out. As far as I can tell, even the best teams signing guys at the mid-part of the free agent market have a 50% rate of outright busts, and in some years it is worse - in the 2017-2018 offseason, like 80% of the free agents who got contracts that were anywhere decent were guys that would have been out of a job a year later if the teams could get rid of them. 2019 looks a little better - only 1/2 the guys who signed contracts were completely useless, and that's about as good as it gets. If you want to avoid any bad contracts, you don't get any good ones.

What I wish people would understand is that the Cubs don't win that world series without making decisions that bit them in the arse, and it's the same decision making process that we'll have to do. The Cubs wound up with a terrible contract in Heyward and they could have won that title without him (assuming it wasn't a $100 million speech). But they could not have won that title without Lester and Zobrist. If you're too scared to get yourself locked into a bad, long-term deal like Heyward, you don't sign the long-term deals that were absolutely key for them. And yes, their moves since then have backfired, but the alternative in some of those cases was missing the playoffs entirely. let's work through one example to illustrate. Yes, Yu Darvish has been a bad contract, but would the Cubs have been particularly happy with Arrieta's contract? I guess Lance Lynn was better in 2019 but that 2018 season you'd have hated, and those were the top performing starting pitchers of that free agent market outside of Sabathia (who wasn't leaving NY). So you're going into 2018, you've made the playoffs 3 years in a row, you need pitching because a guy has hit free agency, what do you do? Do you just say you're not going to get a starter and say you're ok with missing the playoffs in 2018 and it's time to rebuild again? Do you sign Michael Pineda and hope for the best? Or do you give big money to a guy who has a good chance of not living up to that contract? There's no easy answer here without hindsight. Yes Darvish was a bad contract, but they all were that offseason. You can make this same logic with any number of their moves. Standing idle would have been better, but it is a great path to being passed by the next team up.

They were all thrown away, and the waitstaff made sure to bang the dishes on the edge of the trashcan to make sure he felt comfortable. There. Not my best work but it is what it is.