southsider2k5

Hopefully it is the Phillies and it is really expensive.

Surprise, surprise, turns out a lot of what was said this weekend about the trade war being over probably isn't true, including the Chinese auto tariffs going to zero.

More than any other group, this year I can't wait to see what our youngest SS's can do. There are some breakout candidates down there, and they are so young too.

That is a great question, and one I will never understand.

Seattle is getting a hockey team

So I quit reading when you mentioned this teams record as if anyone else could have done anything with this steaming pile of trash after the injuries.

The Braves only jumped 18 wins from 72 to 90. 18 more wins doesn't even get us to .500.

That's the whole point though. You need a huge free agent signing. You need to fill half of the line up. You need people to step up as 1/2 starters. You need to find at least two more starters regardless. You need a closer and set up guys. You need better health out of key guys. You need young guys to almost all take huge leaps forward. Again, what are the odds of ALL of that happening, meanwhile everything else around us going right too?

This is not even close to a playoff pitching staff.

There are two star players out there. We are below average at so many positions right now, that doesn't plug nearly all of the holes.

Mostly because it would be! I can't fathom looking at a 62 win and thinking playoffs, especially after what we saw last year.

Our position players by and large aren't here yet. Our entire OF is a hole until Eloy gets here. 3B and DH are holes. Back up catcher is a hole. This group isn't ready even when Eloy gets here.

Damn man, try not to drown in me in so many details or information.

If you actually look at the details, you can see it. Speaking in glittery generalities, as you are? Not so much.

Again the odds of all of this lining up all at the same time is what? -Cleveland has to trade off a decent amount of wins to start with. Either that or the wild cards have to fall way back. -Signing a top guy: As of now the Sox are not even the favorite of one of the top guys. What are we talking here 25% tops?4 -Needing someone to either be signed as, or stepping up as the ace of the rotation: Rodon has an ace ceiling, but what are the odds of his not only staying healthy for an entire season, but also pitching like an ace? 5%? 10%? -Past Rodon, you would need both extra-ordinary health and jumps in performance from both Giolito and Lopez. Innings I can can give you, as both have stayed fairly healthy, but do you see Lucas AND Rey stepping up as 2/3 types of starters THIS YEAR? What are the odds here? Again, maybe 5-10%? -Past the top three, you would also need to find two more starters to give you something around at least league average performances, while also staying relatively healthy, plus getting depth from the minors that doesn't hurt you when it is needed. Odds of this? Really long unless you are talking about spending a lot more money here. -Now you have to get the bullpen to give you historical performances from guys like Jones and Colome on the high end, and anyone else you sign, PLUS get good leaps from all of the kids who are going to be your primary set up men. With as volatile as pens are, and the learning curve for kids, the odds here? Yeah, that is got to be something like 1% of all of this lining up. That just gets us through the pitching staff.

If people really want to put money on the Sox making the playoffs this year, I will give you 50:1 and take your cash now.

All of that working out at the same time? Yes, it is impossibly low. 62 wins to the playoffs with a few new free agents, one being a superstar, plus everyone stepping up otherwise? How often do you actually see that work?

This trade is what desperation looks like. Thank God Hahn had some patience in these deals.

Also true.

There is no realistic scenario that has the Sox making the playoffs this year. Even something where we go out and sign top free agents AND have everyone who returns have a ceiling type of a year is a 1 in a 1000 scenario.

So let's hear it how. I have seen people this winter try to outline exactly how they could do it, and I have yet to see a convincing scenario.