If he pitches like Lucas Giolito he is in the $20 to $25 million range on a long term contract. Vintage Lucas Giolito is a top of the rotation starter. $10 million year in 2022 is a 4th or 5th starter who can pitch 200 innings a year, which is what Lucas's numbers look like after his defense adds on an extra run a game to his ERA. If guys like Johnny Cueto, who hadn't had even a decent season since 2018 are still getting jobs, Lucas Giolito is having every single team in baseball call him if the Sox were stupid enough to non-tender.