southsider2k5

I am enjoying it. But that doesn't mean I can't be willing to face reality to where this team is, and will be in a few months. Honestly I think I am enjoying it more because I don't have expectations of this team winning a World Series to feel like they did something big this year.

Maybe its my line of work, but I wouldn't call anything that fails at best 6 out of 7 times, "confident".

7:1 means 6 times out of 7 they don't win. 10:1 means 9 out of 10 they don't.

Eh, #1, the Sox have to survive this season first with a relative amount of health. If the pitching doesn't stay healthy, this team is toast. So as a part of this we are relying on Carlos Rodon, who has been hurt more often in his career than not. We are relying on Crochet and Kopech who are both looking at innings performances WAY over anything they have in recent years at best, ever at worst. We are relying on Dylan Cease who has a career high of 141 innings. We are relying on Dallas who missed a chunk of 2020, and missed half of 2019, as well as missing big chunks of 2016 and 2017, #2, Vegas odds are not set to determine favorites, they are determined to maximize profits. I mean there are reasons to like the Sox chances, but there are LOT of things that can go very wrong, and a good chunk of them aren't that far out of reality.

Even the statistical models have the Sox at somewhere between 7:1 and 10:1. That is the definition of not confident.

Translation: I don't really know anything, but I want it to appear that I do, so I will cover as many bases as possible to appear knowledgeable.

It is asking too much of those guys to be out the vast majority of the season, and then carry a winning playoff load.

Hahn was pretty optimistic about his getting back to the 2nd phase of his recovery where he will actually be resuming baseball activity. Even when he does that, he has a decent amount of time before he will put on a Sox jersey. He has workouts to go through and then an extended rehab is also going to be in order.

I really don't see this group as ready to be World Champs yet. Playoffs, sure.

With all of the injuries we have had, it is a minor miracle that he isn't yet hurt.

They are feasting against bad teams, but there is nothing wrong with that. Those wins get you to the playoffs just as much as any other win.

I think his injury history will stop him from getting to the top end, but there is definitely room above those numbers if he can stay even relatively healthy.

This could also end the Indians season.

If it were out there, I would absolutely pound a betting line that has Rodon on the DL this season. I would love to see him make it, but I have very little doubt that he will spend some time hurt this season.

To be fair, the Rodon signing thread is WAY more positive.

Cleveland is 5.5 games back, and currently also the first team out of the wild card standings, so the team has essentially a 5.5 game lead on TWO playoff spots. If somehow Cleveland was to pass the Sox, they would also need to have both Boston (2.5 game lead) and Houston (4 game lead) also pass the White Sox pace for them to not be a playoff team. If both Houston and Boston were to fall off, and Cleveland win the ALC, Toronto is the next team back at 7 games behind the Sox, and it only gets deeper for the trailing teams. As of now it would take a LOT of things not only going back for Chicago, but also going right for at least 3 other teams for the Sox to not make the playoffs.

Sox playoff odds FG make playoffs 92.3%, Win ALC 89.5%, win WS 11.2% BR make playoffs 99.4%, win ALC 86.3%, win WS 15.5%

I can squint and see him being the guy to eventually replace Leury. If he can respectably cover the premium positions in CF and SS, there is no reason he can't pick up corner OFs and other IF spots.

Dylan Cease vs Detroit 8-0 Dylan Cease vs everyone else 6-13