Jack Parkman

Sox Scouting has to be better there than everyone else because Jerry has a limit on how much he spends on 16 year olds......it's like he doesn't understand that they're one of the highest ROIs in baseball. They'll sign a bunch of guys in the 800k-1.5M range but no more than that. I think Adolfo was the most expensive 16 year old he signed since the Wilder fiasco and given how that has (not) worked, I doubt he'd be willing to go into 7 figures again.

He's already fixed Giolito, and Kopech doesn't need to be fixed, he just needs to be healthy. Lopez is a lottery ticket at this point, and the only guy who really needs to be "fixed" is Cease. Or, he could be another guy like Lopez whose stuff plays down in the majors. If they get anything out of Lopez at this point that's a win.

Honestly? No idea. It completely depends on whether they're interested in moving him as a salary dump or not? If I had to guess, something like Vaughn+filler? Idk if any of those 1B guys they had worked out or not.

No dude.....he hasn't earned that type of pay check. He's had one full season of under a 4.00 ERA, and had a 4.42 as recently as 2019. This is insanity. I'd be willing to go over 25M on a 5 or 6 year deal but once you start to approach 30M it's too much and too far. Like 27-28M is my limit. Past that point, It's time to say no mas. Even if the Sox signed Bauer to 5/140 or something like that, if he's not close to the guy from 2018 or 2020 then it's a massive budget killer and would derail the window. I'm all for signing Bauer at a rate of the Wheeler offer or a little more. Some of the proposed contracts in this thread are batshit crazy.

How would you compare Arihara to guys like Quintana and Odorizzi?

Projections are projections, they're not reality. At the end of the day, the game is played on the field. Bauer likely has figured it out, and is a very good pitcher going forward, but It does not mean that he is worth a 30M AAV like the guys who have been and continue to be consistently great.

They can have him then. The highest I'd be willing to go is 27-28M AAV on a 5 year deal. So 5/140 is my top offer and if they beat that then so be it. I already feel uncomfortable there.

I don't think he gets anywhere close to that AAV . Maybe on a 6 year deal he gets $136M.

Human nature/psychology says that the best predictor of future performance is past performance. It's hard to get that out of people's heads, despite it not working that way in sports. Everyone knows that in sports you get paid in FA based on your track record and that it's likely to be a negative surplus value. The truth is that nobody knows which Bauer they're getting. It's completely up in the air.

That's how it's supposed to work, but that's not how it actually works. And I look at Bauer and while the stuff is great, am I getting the 2012-2017, and 2019 guy, or am I getting the 2018 and 2020 guy?

That doesn't change the fact that Bauer doesn't have anywhere close to the track record of even Darvish, let alone other 30M pitchers. Bauer had one dominant full season and 11 dominant starts against bad competition. That's worth 30 million dollars? In this financial climate? C'mon Fathom, you're better than that. I think Bauer might look at the long term offers and go for the 1 year deal. Then all bets are off.

If you're correct, then I completely understand the FO staying away. In that case, it sucks. 3 years ago, Yu Darvish got 6/126 in a non-pandemic financial climate and he had been a much better pitcher over the course of his career than Bauer.

There's a lot of arguments not to do that, namely the QOC during an 11 game stretch this year and the fact that he's only had 1 full season in his career with an ERA under 4.00. If he's getting 30 per year I understand the FO staying away. I did not realize how average he'd been prior to 2018.

Bauer has a better track record of health than Wheeler did, but Wheeler had a better track record of performance. I'd offer him the rumored Wheeler deal(5/125) and see if he bites.

The more I dive into this, the more I think he's more in the $25-26M range over a 4-6 year deal. So anywhere from 4/100 to 6/156. If he wanted to do a 3 year deal I think he could get like 93M on a deal like that. Higher AAV but lower years.

The only place where schadenfreude exists for me is in sports. It doesn't matter in the grand scheme of life, so it's ok.

POTY candidate. Well done. LMFAO.

Add Crochet to that list, and yeah. Darvish to the Sox makes just as much sense for both teams as Quintana to the Cubs did. The difference is the dollars on the deal and Darvish's age, which should bring the price down. https://www.fangraphs.com/players/yu-darvish/13074/stats?position=P https://www.fangraphs.com/players/blake-snell/13543/stats?position=P https://www.fangraphs.com/players/trevor-bauer/12703/stats?position=P

I mean honestly, Darvish has a better track record than either Bauer or Snell. Something to ponder.

Bauer is like Snell. When he's having his good seasons, he's a Cy Young candidate but he has seasons where his ERA jumps over 4 as well.

There's literally no reason for the Sox not to do that. Their position group is still cheap and he comes off when they get expensive.

It depends on what he's looking for? If he's looking for a long-term deal, I think 5/140-150, and that's only because of the Pandemic. In a normal offseason, he'd be looking at 6/180 or 7/210. If he'd be willing to do a 3 year deal, I think he'd get around 105M. If he's looking for a 1 year deal, I think he wants to beat Cole's AAV and He'd get a 38M 1 year deal.

No shit sherlock. Don't let Cub fans fool you into thinking they don't enjoy watching the Sox fail. They absolutely do and if they tell you otherwise, they're lying.

Ever heard of schadenfreude? It means pleasure derived from others misfortune. I wouldn't want it if something actually bad happened to another person. But in sports, it is very real. I was actually happy for all of my friends who were Cub fans when they won. They got theirs, back to schadenfreude.

He's good at his job but he was a homer. He'll be bringing that to the South Side. That's cool. It is possible to be a troll with Cubs fans and be rational about their team at the same time. I enjoy watching certain teams/players repeatedly fail, like the Cubs, Yankees and Maple Leafs, and Tom Brady. I am not afraid to admit schadenfreude there. I actually want the Sox and Hawks to win more, but absent of that, it's funny to watch them fail. I don't really hate those teams as much as I find their fans incredibly smug, arrogant and pompous. You could use the same adjectives to describe Tom Brady.