Dick Allen

QUOTE (Dam8610 @ Sep 27, 2014 -> 10:32 PM) raBBit, since I cannot quote your post, if you read the WHOLE thread, you'll notice that my FIRST example of an aging decline was Paul Konerko, and my SECOND example of an aging decline was Magglio Ordonez. To the naysayers, Konerko's decline was ONLY because of injury, and now according to you, Ordonez's decline was ONLY because he was a steroid user. So I am asking, how many good hitters do I need to find who fell off the face of the Earth performance wise before age 37 for you and all the other naysayers to believe that it's a trend? I think the fact that the first two I examined had an almost identical decline pattern speaks volumes on the issue, but I'm curious how many it would take to show that signing Martinez is a bad idea? I would like you to show someome who had Martinez's career numbers, and a guy who lead the league in Ops and OBP as a 35 year old, who becomes as useless as you claim the next 3 seasons. Paulie had wrist, back and hip problems, Maggs had a vertical fracture of his ankle, which supposedly is much mor of a problem than a horizontal fracture, and he wound up fractuiring again in the same spot, His lifetime slash line is also almost identical to Paul Molitor, except Victor's slugging is a little higher. Check out his 36-38 seasons.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Sep 27, 2014 -> 09:54 PM) Because I can't think of any team with a $120 million opening day payroll that won 63 games in recent memory. I have no idea how this fits in with yor posts or my replies, but I like it. Whenever someone stumps me or shows me I am totally wrong, I will just say "2013", giving you full credit of course.

QUOTE (greg775 @ Sep 27, 2014 -> 09:53 PM) If the Royals were the Sox, would u be incensed at their behavior in celebrating the mere wildcard? KC had a real chance to tie Detroit tonight. I personally think they were dumb in celebrating so hard last night. I tell you there's a big difference in winning the division and playing in the suicidal wildcard game. I'd hope if the Sox are ever in that position again they pop a little bit of bubbly but tone down the celebrations IF the divisional title is still in balance. Stupid KC falling short tonight against our abysmal Sox. 29 years without the playoffs, let them celebrate making the playoffs. If you are making them more regularly, maybe then tone it down.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Sep 27, 2014 -> 09:15 PM) Congrats. You've caught a minor error. You may now celebrate your 75 win, $100 million team. So in the same thread you falsely accuse me of exaggeration you now claim signing him bumps the Sox payroll up to $100 million and only will improve tithe team 1 or 2 games. LMAO

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Sep 27, 2014 -> 09:09 PM) This isn't true. My question is whether signing the guy over 30 is likely to put us over the top during the next season. From my impression of the current White Sox, this seems almost certainly to not be the case. We're going to be running a rookie out at 2b, Danks and a rookie and Noesi in the rotation, a completely reassembled bullpen again, and a bunch of other injury questions out there. We need a helluva bunch of people to massively improve next year for a 37 year old DH to suddenly make a difference. We got the 8th best OPS in MLB out of our DH spot this year and a moderate upgrade to VMart isn't going to be a huge push from that. It's a small upgrade. If we're an 88 win team without Martinez, fine. Right now, we are no where close to that. Find me an all star caliber right fielder in a trade and a new closer and we're set and I'm ok to blow money on the DH spot to win next year. If we're a 75 win team next year without Martinez, and we're going to sign him to a 3 year deal so that he can help us win next year, this makes no sense to me. He will be a 37 year old DH in 2016.

QUOTE (shysocks @ Sep 27, 2014 -> 04:18 PM) Beltran was two years removed from anything resembling a season like the one Victor is having now. I agree that signing him at that price would be a good call. And when it's that easy, you can bet he'll get more money. Also, notice how Beltran had his worst season ever this year. The risks of signing a player that old are very real, guys. The White Sox signed Adam Dunn for his age 31 season. He had one of the worst seasons ever for anyone. Maybe due to risks, the Sox should only draft guys who will sign for slot or below or pick up guys on waivers.

QUOTE (Dam8610 @ Sep 27, 2014 -> 04:07 PM) Magglio Ordonez Age 36 Season Slash Line: .303/.378/.852 Magglio Ordonez Age 37 Season Slash Line: .255/.303/.634 Magglio Ordonez Age 38 Season Slash Line: Not Available I'm sensing a trend here. Are you. Check out some of the names I mentioned earlier in the thread. To say every ages the same way is the most ridiculous thing I have ever read. If Victor has some sort of condition that would lead one to believe he cannot remain healthy for 3 seasons, then I would agree with you. But to say, Konerko fell apart after injury at 36, Maggs got hurt and dropped off a cliff at 36, therefore, everyone should drop off a cliff at 36 makes no sense. Look at Edgar Martinez's numbers. Look at Harold Baines' numbers. Look at Frank Thomas, Jim Thome....these guys were mostly DH's which is where Victor will mostly be. Show me the trend.

QUOTE (raBBit @ Sep 27, 2014 -> 03:10 PM) Balta: "Andy Wilkins can be a part time player with an .800+ OPS." Balta: "Victor Martinez is not a great hitter because of his career .848 OPS." There are 6 players, including Victor, that have at least a .306/.373./848 line during the 2014 season.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Sep 27, 2014 -> 03:03 PM) You have a really weak definition of a "great hitter". Next time a White Sox puts up that line, his average line for a season, while everyone will be enjoying it, you can sit around and convince yourself it was just a solid above averag year.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Sep 27, 2014 -> 02:07 PM) It tells me a lot that in order to sell him you have to exaggerate so much. He is not by any means a "great hitter". He's a solid above average hitter having one great season late in his career. This is literally the first season out of either of their careers where he's been anywhere close to the production of a guy like Miguel Cabrera who is actually a great hitter. He's a great hitter if he can, in his late 30's, do what he's never done in his career prior to this year for several more seasons. .306/.373/.848 for his career. An average hitter this year is .251/.314/.701. I think he is a bit better than above average. He is a great hitter. His career split line and Magglio's career split line are almost identical.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Sep 27, 2014 -> 01:01 PM) Would that "really alter the lineup" though? There are another 15 who have an OPS over .817. The difference between a guy at the top of that list and a guy in the mid .800s is huge. Adding 2 of those latter guys, yeah that's a big lineup change. Adding one more of them? Nice contributor, but not going to suddenly turn this lineup into a force. Why wouldn't it? Switch hitter, high OBP. Low k rate. The White Sox are most likely not going to sign him, but he is a great hitter who, if you gave him a 3 year contract, would be 38 when that contract ended. Saying he will physically fall apart like Paulie just based on age is silly. There are plenty of examples of elite hitters remaining elite at this age.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Sep 27, 2014 -> 12:50 PM) How good is this other left handed bat? Because I look at Martinez's career and how much of an outlier this year is compared to the rest of it and think that adding his normal .850 OPS would be a good addition but wouldn't do anything like Abreu in "really altering the lineup". There are currently 15 qualified players in the major leagues who have at least an .850 OPS.

QUOTE (shysocks @ Sep 26, 2014 -> 03:13 PM) My whole point is, take Jeter's career and transplant it to some other city. That is a hall-of-famer and a legend when you throw in all the postseason accomplishments. It is not somebody that 12% of the people voting in a dumb poll are calling one of the 5 greatest players ever. That's all I'm saying. Right, but why take that out on Jeter? Borderline HOFer, took 27 steps after he caught a ball and stupidly dove into the stands...those are a couple of BS examples in this thread. And when you get these types of polls, laugh them off. His fans stuff the ballot box. I'm a Rush fan. Other bands have bigger fanbases, but Rush fans have chips on their shoulders. Anytime there is some sort of Rock poll with Rush involved, they will always finish near the top because their fans will spend all day voting.

QUOTE (StRoostifer @ Sep 26, 2014 -> 02:58 PM) Well said Dick, I could not agree more. Honestly, I always have liked Jeter and did not understand the hate. I realize the media hypes him up a bit, so hate the media and not the player. I just don't get it... Exactly.

QUOTE (shysocks @ Sep 26, 2014 -> 02:43 PM) He also hit .200 or worse in seven postseason series and .250 or worse in twelve. Guess he forgot to be clutch for those. All we learn from this is that he was in the playoffs a lot, and we know his numbers there came out remarkably similar to his career line. Derek Jeter would need to have been about 40% better as a White Sox to receive the same attention. He had a great career and he is a no-doubt, deserving hall-of-famer, but he would not have near the status he does if he weren't a Yankee. He is still 6th all time in hits, 10th all time in runs, and last night was the first home game he ever played with the Yankees eliminated from postseason contention. 5 World Series wins, 7 World Series appearances, His peers hold him in very high regard. If he were a guy who was out seeking the attention, I could maybe understand some of the flap, but really he hasn't. I don't watch ESPN much when it's about baseball, but if it bothers people so much Jeter is getting praised, they could always change the channel instead of venting and being even more obnoxious the other way.

I think Jim Kaat said last night he had 10 postseason series where he hit over .400. If Derek Jeter was a White Sox and received the same attention, the haters here would have a different spin on his career.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Sep 26, 2014 -> 01:30 PM) Again just to point out...these sort of things were said about Paul Konerko, especially when he had that ridiculous first half of his 2012 season. He then had one small injury that built and fell off a cliff. You literally would never have seen it coming. We didn't and we wound up paying a big salary last year to a guy who was really, really bad. We found out this week White Sox doctors didn't expect Paulie's hip to hold up through the 2010 season, and Mark Gonzalez in his tribute said he was playing with a bad hip and bad back., and he has been off the Sox beat for a couple of seasons. So it really wasn't one small injury that did him in. It is part of aging, but not everyone ages like Konerko. We didn't see it coming because it was kept quiet. Now if Victor has some sort of condition that no one knows about, I agree, don't sign him. But he blew a knee and missed his age 33 season. The age guys would probably have said the end is near or at least a steady decline, and were probably patting themselves on the back the first part of last year for being so smart, but it turns out they were really wrong.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Sep 26, 2014 -> 12:33 PM) I just realized I misquoted the article -- it's a 30 year sample, not 15. It is still going to be on a case by case thing. Martin may be better 3 years from now, or he may be collecting a check. When the Sox signed Carlton Fisk for the 1981 season, he was 33 years old. I remember Roland Hemond saying he told JR he thought Fisk had 2 productive years left, but needed to go to 3 to sign him. What did he have 13 seasons in a White Sox uniform, and probably 10 pretty productive ones. Obviously there is no way anyone could expect something similar to happen again, but weird stuff does happen. If Martin winds up a White Sox, I won't be kicking and screaming, but I'm very leary of him putting up numbers and being a presence where it would be a consensus thought with hindsight, that he was a good signing, but I will acknowledge it is possible. And maybe the discrepancy at the age 33 is the time they start platooning more. Who knows? One thing that is certain is if you knew exactly how someone would age, you would be winning a lot of titles.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Sep 26, 2014 -> 10:40 AM) I don't think so either, intuitively, but that's why I was pointing to that article to show that over the last 15 years or so, that HASN'T been the case on the aggregate. The last 15 years has been dominated by steroids. Also, only the better guys even catch much after 34 or 35. The numbers on that graph showed regular position players declining every year, but catchers actually improving at age 33 after several years of decline before declining again, which to me indicates a sample size problem or something else a little out of whack. Maybe that is the year the elite guys still catch and the back ups and not so good guys move on to other things.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Sep 26, 2014 -> 10:10 AM) Interestingly, it was also noted above that "improving pitch framing" is one thing that can help a catcher age well with time, so that might be a skill Flowers could make up some ground on as well. That said, Martin's been really good at that for a long time, but it is probably worth asking how much we really believe the numbers on how big a difference it makes at this time. IIRC, pitch framing seems to be an advanced stat that is looked at a couple of different ways. One, Flowers is near the bottom, in another, he is better than average. I think the Russell Martin you see the next couple years is the Russell Martin that played with the Yankees. Not a bad player but you will be paying him for what he's done since, and those last couple years IMO, will drop off. I am all for an upgrade. I congratulate Flowers for coming back after a slump that many wouldn't come back from, but I think he is too inconsistent to be a regular, although good enough to bide some time until something better that makes a lot of sense comes around. Lillian will be happy when I write the Sox need a LH presence in their line up. That is where they should be spending some cash.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Sep 26, 2014 -> 07:49 AM) Since we are talking about a three/four year deal, how did Konerko's 37 and 38 year old seasons look? Not as good as Harold Baines and Edgar Martinez. Paulie was doing pretty well and probably still would be had the wrist, back and hips held up. JR just said White Sox doctors didn't think he would make it to 2010. Obviously, something could go wrong with Victor that can make him drop off and the odds do increase with age, but Victor has been a really good hitter for a while. He started off really slow in 2013 after missing 2012, but picked it up the second half. As long as he stays relatively healthy, there is no reason to think he can't be a really productive hitter for several more seasons. If there was a choice between him and Russell Martin, I would take Victor as they say in the the Reed threads, 10 times out of 10.

QUOTE (Dam8610 @ Sep 26, 2014 -> 12:38 AM) Your argument in favor of Martinez is actually the problem with him. You're right, he had a career year at 35. What do you think the probability he'll repeat at 36 is? How about at 37? 38? Let's put it this way, the types of players that continue to produce at elite levels through their age 38 seasons usually end up in Cooperstown. I don't see Martinez as that caliber of player, and if you hated Adam Dunn at 4/$56, it's highly probable that you'll despise Victor Martinez at 3/$60. Look at Paul Konerko's last 4 seasons. Konerko's age 35 season was near MVP caliber, and his decline began at age 36. The last 3 seasons of Konerko are a decent window into what Victor Martinez is likely to give you for 3/$60. If you still think that's a good idea, then I hope that either the White Sox disagree or Victor Martinez defies probability and logic. .303/.376/.847 lifetime. If hehas his career average year, he is pretty damn good.

QUOTE (IlliniKrush @ Sep 25, 2014 -> 11:56 PM) He's involved in the most overrated catch of all time. You know, the one where he caught a pop up, took 27 steps and then stupidly dove into the stands face first and hit a chair. OMG WHAT A PLAY You need to look at it again. While not the greatest play of all time, it is closer to that than the event you described.

I have never understood the Jeter hate. He basically is hated, not by what he does, but because of the perception the media likes him too much. Personally, I wish he had his first ballot HOF career with the White Sox.

QUOTE (Rowand44 @ Sep 25, 2014 -> 01:43 PM) I'm all for Ackley and Butler if that means we're using our resources on acquiring a top line starting pitcher. And no I don't know where that pitcher is coming from, just throwing it out there. Ackley and Butler both have lower OPSs this season than Alejandro De Aza. I am not buying the Sox interest. I do agree if that is their offense moves, they are goimg to be spending a ton on pitching.