Dick Allen

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Sep 29, 2014 -> 06:32 AM) Not only do you need to factor injury risk, but we also need to realize that Victor Martinez is having his BEST season by far. This is a career year. He's not likely to repeat even if he DOES stay healthy. You're suggesting that he's been a superstar his entire career, but he never approached this type of season at the plate even in his prime. He's a career 125 wRC+ -- which is very good, especially for a catcher -- but is at 167 this year. That's in a different ballpark altogether. Additionally, there are several outlier peripherals that are major red flags for regression. Chiefly: 6.6% K rate (compared to a career 10.4%) and a 16.0% HR/FB rate (compared to a career 10.7%). All the performance risk that applies to Russell Martin's career year applies to Victor's. More injury risk applies to Victor thanks to age. Because half of Martin's value comes from defense (and most of that from aspects of defense that age well), he's MUCH more valuable even if they both regress 25%. And Victor is probably going to make more money, at least on an AAV basis, despite the fact that they were similarly valuable this year: Victor @ 4.4 fWAR, Martin at 5.2 fWAR. They both come with risk, for sure, as any free agent does. But I definitely think Martinez comes with more, and it's primarily due to age. Victor is having his best season. Still he is a lifetime wRC+ 125 . If he has an average for him year that is a lot more help in a spot the team has nothing than if Wilson has an average year for him vs. Flowers.

QUOTE (Chilihead90 @ Sep 28, 2014 -> 01:40 PM) He could have easily slid during or after that catch to avoid going in to the stands. Not saying he did it on purpose to be flashy, but saying he played it wrong and stupidly, yet it's constantly being shown as one of the greatest SS plays of all time. And if he slid he would have crashed into the wall maybe breaking a leg or ankle or screwing up a knee.

I guess all of us who thought Hester was done were a little off.

Brutal call on Peppers to keep the drive alive. Sweet.

Will today's attendance vs last night's resemble Opening Day vs. game 2 in 42 degree weather with a slight mist and winds from the NE at 25 MPH?

If Detroit loses 3 out of 4, including the last 3 to the last place Twins, and want to blame the White Sox, they should be the laughingstocks of baseball.

QUOTE (IlliniKrush @ Sep 27, 2014 -> 12:24 AM) The guy made a running catch that shortstops make every year (and a better one may have been almost standing under), took million steps and stupidly dove face first into a seat, because TOUGHNESS AND LEADERSHIP. Please. He was shifted over by second base. If your version is how you saw that play, you should quit umpiring. You must be turrible.

QUOTE (shysocks @ Sep 28, 2014 -> 08:47 AM) I don't even know if you can expect 80% of his current production. His OPS is 100 points above his previous career high. Then add in the aging curve. I would not prefer to wait for the magical core; I want things to happen this offseason. I just don't think he's the right answer. Can you find an example of a team that paid a guy that age after a career year and didn't regret it? I am sure the Red Sox don't regret hanging on to Big Papi.

Navarro once b****ed about run support after a game he allowed 9 runs. That is pretty much all you need to know about him.

QUOTE (fathom @ Sep 27, 2014 -> 11:44 PM) Was at the game tonight, I thought it was awesome to see the place packed to honor Konerko. Did they ever say on the broadcast why Frank had no involvement at all? I am guessing he was working for Fox Sports 1 or they probably didn't want him overshadowing the event. It was Paulie"s night. Frank being there would have taken some of the spotlight away. I do know Paulie called out Frank during their playing days, but I don't think that had anything to do with it. Robin called him out once as well. I think Frank, Paulie and Robin are all fine.

QUOTE (Dam8610 @ Sep 27, 2014 -> 10:32 PM) raBBit, since I cannot quote your post, if you read the WHOLE thread, you'll notice that my FIRST example of an aging decline was Paul Konerko, and my SECOND example of an aging decline was Magglio Ordonez. To the naysayers, Konerko's decline was ONLY because of injury, and now according to you, Ordonez's decline was ONLY because he was a steroid user. So I am asking, how many good hitters do I need to find who fell off the face of the Earth performance wise before age 37 for you and all the other naysayers to believe that it's a trend? I think the fact that the first two I examined had an almost identical decline pattern speaks volumes on the issue, but I'm curious how many it would take to show that signing Martinez is a bad idea? I would like you to show someome who had Martinez's career numbers, and a guy who lead the league in Ops and OBP as a 35 year old, who becomes as useless as you claim the next 3 seasons. Paulie had wrist, back and hip problems, Maggs had a vertical fracture of his ankle, which supposedly is much mor of a problem than a horizontal fracture, and he wound up fractuiring again in the same spot, His lifetime slash line is also almost identical to Paul Molitor, except Victor's slugging is a little higher. Check out his 36-38 seasons.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Sep 27, 2014 -> 09:54 PM) Because I can't think of any team with a $120 million opening day payroll that won 63 games in recent memory. I have no idea how this fits in with yor posts or my replies, but I like it. Whenever someone stumps me or shows me I am totally wrong, I will just say "2013", giving you full credit of course.

QUOTE (greg775 @ Sep 27, 2014 -> 09:53 PM) If the Royals were the Sox, would u be incensed at their behavior in celebrating the mere wildcard? KC had a real chance to tie Detroit tonight. I personally think they were dumb in celebrating so hard last night. I tell you there's a big difference in winning the division and playing in the suicidal wildcard game. I'd hope if the Sox are ever in that position again they pop a little bit of bubbly but tone down the celebrations IF the divisional title is still in balance. Stupid KC falling short tonight against our abysmal Sox. 29 years without the playoffs, let them celebrate making the playoffs. If you are making them more regularly, maybe then tone it down.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Sep 27, 2014 -> 09:15 PM) Congrats. You've caught a minor error. You may now celebrate your 75 win, $100 million team. So in the same thread you falsely accuse me of exaggeration you now claim signing him bumps the Sox payroll up to $100 million and only will improve tithe team 1 or 2 games. LMAO

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Sep 27, 2014 -> 09:09 PM) This isn't true. My question is whether signing the guy over 30 is likely to put us over the top during the next season. From my impression of the current White Sox, this seems almost certainly to not be the case. We're going to be running a rookie out at 2b, Danks and a rookie and Noesi in the rotation, a completely reassembled bullpen again, and a bunch of other injury questions out there. We need a helluva bunch of people to massively improve next year for a 37 year old DH to suddenly make a difference. We got the 8th best OPS in MLB out of our DH spot this year and a moderate upgrade to VMart isn't going to be a huge push from that. It's a small upgrade. If we're an 88 win team without Martinez, fine. Right now, we are no where close to that. Find me an all star caliber right fielder in a trade and a new closer and we're set and I'm ok to blow money on the DH spot to win next year. If we're a 75 win team next year without Martinez, and we're going to sign him to a 3 year deal so that he can help us win next year, this makes no sense to me. He will be a 37 year old DH in 2016.

QUOTE (shysocks @ Sep 27, 2014 -> 04:18 PM) Beltran was two years removed from anything resembling a season like the one Victor is having now. I agree that signing him at that price would be a good call. And when it's that easy, you can bet he'll get more money. Also, notice how Beltran had his worst season ever this year. The risks of signing a player that old are very real, guys. The White Sox signed Adam Dunn for his age 31 season. He had one of the worst seasons ever for anyone. Maybe due to risks, the Sox should only draft guys who will sign for slot or below or pick up guys on waivers.

QUOTE (Dam8610 @ Sep 27, 2014 -> 04:07 PM) Magglio Ordonez Age 36 Season Slash Line: .303/.378/.852 Magglio Ordonez Age 37 Season Slash Line: .255/.303/.634 Magglio Ordonez Age 38 Season Slash Line: Not Available I'm sensing a trend here. Are you. Check out some of the names I mentioned earlier in the thread. To say every ages the same way is the most ridiculous thing I have ever read. If Victor has some sort of condition that would lead one to believe he cannot remain healthy for 3 seasons, then I would agree with you. But to say, Konerko fell apart after injury at 36, Maggs got hurt and dropped off a cliff at 36, therefore, everyone should drop off a cliff at 36 makes no sense. Look at Edgar Martinez's numbers. Look at Harold Baines' numbers. Look at Frank Thomas, Jim Thome....these guys were mostly DH's which is where Victor will mostly be. Show me the trend.

QUOTE (raBBit @ Sep 27, 2014 -> 03:10 PM) Balta: "Andy Wilkins can be a part time player with an .800+ OPS." Balta: "Victor Martinez is not a great hitter because of his career .848 OPS." There are 6 players, including Victor, that have at least a .306/.373./848 line during the 2014 season.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Sep 27, 2014 -> 03:03 PM) You have a really weak definition of a "great hitter". Next time a White Sox puts up that line, his average line for a season, while everyone will be enjoying it, you can sit around and convince yourself it was just a solid above averag year.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Sep 27, 2014 -> 02:07 PM) It tells me a lot that in order to sell him you have to exaggerate so much. He is not by any means a "great hitter". He's a solid above average hitter having one great season late in his career. This is literally the first season out of either of their careers where he's been anywhere close to the production of a guy like Miguel Cabrera who is actually a great hitter. He's a great hitter if he can, in his late 30's, do what he's never done in his career prior to this year for several more seasons. .306/.373/.848 for his career. An average hitter this year is .251/.314/.701. I think he is a bit better than above average. He is a great hitter. His career split line and Magglio's career split line are almost identical.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Sep 27, 2014 -> 01:01 PM) Would that "really alter the lineup" though? There are another 15 who have an OPS over .817. The difference between a guy at the top of that list and a guy in the mid .800s is huge. Adding 2 of those latter guys, yeah that's a big lineup change. Adding one more of them? Nice contributor, but not going to suddenly turn this lineup into a force. Why wouldn't it? Switch hitter, high OBP. Low k rate. The White Sox are most likely not going to sign him, but he is a great hitter who, if you gave him a 3 year contract, would be 38 when that contract ended. Saying he will physically fall apart like Paulie just based on age is silly. There are plenty of examples of elite hitters remaining elite at this age.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Sep 27, 2014 -> 12:50 PM) How good is this other left handed bat? Because I look at Martinez's career and how much of an outlier this year is compared to the rest of it and think that adding his normal .850 OPS would be a good addition but wouldn't do anything like Abreu in "really altering the lineup". There are currently 15 qualified players in the major leagues who have at least an .850 OPS.

QUOTE (shysocks @ Sep 26, 2014 -> 03:13 PM) My whole point is, take Jeter's career and transplant it to some other city. That is a hall-of-famer and a legend when you throw in all the postseason accomplishments. It is not somebody that 12% of the people voting in a dumb poll are calling one of the 5 greatest players ever. That's all I'm saying. Right, but why take that out on Jeter? Borderline HOFer, took 27 steps after he caught a ball and stupidly dove into the stands...those are a couple of BS examples in this thread. And when you get these types of polls, laugh them off. His fans stuff the ballot box. I'm a Rush fan. Other bands have bigger fanbases, but Rush fans have chips on their shoulders. Anytime there is some sort of Rock poll with Rush involved, they will always finish near the top because their fans will spend all day voting.

QUOTE (StRoostifer @ Sep 26, 2014 -> 02:58 PM) Well said Dick, I could not agree more. Honestly, I always have liked Jeter and did not understand the hate. I realize the media hypes him up a bit, so hate the media and not the player. I just don't get it... Exactly.

QUOTE (shysocks @ Sep 26, 2014 -> 02:43 PM) He also hit .200 or worse in seven postseason series and .250 or worse in twelve. Guess he forgot to be clutch for those. All we learn from this is that he was in the playoffs a lot, and we know his numbers there came out remarkably similar to his career line. Derek Jeter would need to have been about 40% better as a White Sox to receive the same attention. He had a great career and he is a no-doubt, deserving hall-of-famer, but he would not have near the status he does if he weren't a Yankee. He is still 6th all time in hits, 10th all time in runs, and last night was the first home game he ever played with the Yankees eliminated from postseason contention. 5 World Series wins, 7 World Series appearances, His peers hold him in very high regard. If he were a guy who was out seeking the attention, I could maybe understand some of the flap, but really he hasn't. I don't watch ESPN much when it's about baseball, but if it bothers people so much Jeter is getting praised, they could always change the channel instead of venting and being even more obnoxious the other way.