Dick Allen

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ May 30, 2014 -> 05:11 AM) Will the real Gordon Beckham show his face? 2014 OPS 1.177 vs. lefties (30+ AB's), .655 vs. righties 2011-2013 .592 vs. lefties, .683 vs. righties 2009 .890 vs. lefties, .755 vs. righties The numbers against righties have stayed within a 100 point range/spectrum for most of his career, but the real dramatic fluctuations have always been against left-handers. Is it a troubling sign for him going forward his numbers against righties look so average/pedestrian? That's a huge differential between the two sets of numbers. Throw away the first 2 games after he came back from his rehab and his OPS is over .700.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ May 30, 2014 -> 08:59 AM) To the first portion, it's $1.75 million towards the payroll this year and a $250K buyout. That is not expensive in terms of MLB payroll whatsoever, and with a guy that averages 94 with the fastball, I have no problem with that price. I posted the link to the initial signing and no one had any problem with it then either. If you're asking me why I prefer a $2 million committment over a $50 million commitment PLUS giving up a draft pick, then figure that one out yourself. I didn't ask you why you prefer. I asked why you wouldn't be concerned about blowing $2 million which is what it amounts to, unless they want to bring him back next season and blow some more.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ May 30, 2014 -> 08:51 AM) Seriously? You don't understand why I'm less concerned about $2m than I am about $50m and a draft pick? What is the price point where your concern about money kicks in? I think it's pretty much assured at this point the $2 million is sunk for Paulino. Jimenez has a 0.8 WAR and is still pitching.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ May 30, 2014 -> 08:48 AM) No one is nervous, we just aren't interested in how you're insisting on ignoring the entire argument solely for the sake of finding one pointless piece of data you can be right about. Everyone's opposition to signing Jimenez was always about way, way, way more than whatever his ERA is this year, whether you choose to acknowledge it or not. I don't ignore the argument. I have stated it many times. You just like to ignore it. The argument is 4 years and $50 million and a second round pick is IMO going to be cheaper than what it will cost for a similar pitcher next offseason as prices rarely go down and the compensation becomes a 1st rounder. You have responded to my position several times. Why are you saying I am ignoring it? Please. This is silly. We will see where Jimenez is at when the season ends. IMO he would have helped the White Sox this year and in the future. Then by all means call me a fool. I couldn't care less.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ May 30, 2014 -> 08:42 AM) I'm concerned about salary because it affects what my favorite baseball team can commit to players moving forward. Why WOULDN'T you be concerned about salary? Would you be just a-ok paying Albert Pujols $25 million a year right now? Either way, stay on topic. You believe that Ubaldo Jimenez, at $12.5 million per year on average, is a better investment than spending no money to try and find a 4th and 5th starter. That's the bet I'm making BUDDY. Also, Adam Dunn didn't cost a draft pick this year so take that rubber hose and shove it up your nose. Then why weren't you concerned about the $2 million they would be blowing on Paulino? Isn't that money that could have been spent elsewhere BUDDY? Gregor Polanco was signed for $175k. There is plenty of money, and not a lot of future committments.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ May 30, 2014 -> 08:33 AM) Or if we REALLY want to make it fair, it's the salary/WAR of Jimenez over the lifetime of the deal vs. salary/WAR of the sum of the 5th starters the Sox use + the salary/WAR of the second round pick this year, with an asterisk for concessions made for the value attained if the second round pick is traded or other picks are signed overslot as a result of the bonus pool money attributed to the second round pick. Our collective point, of course, being that this argument is so much more complex than Hector Noesi's ERA in 2014, and everyone knows it. My wager proposition was with Balta because of the Jimenez/Noesi ERA issue. For some people who think Jimenez sucks and always will, you guys sure do seem nervous he might wind up with a decent ERA.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ May 30, 2014 -> 08:24 AM) You make it salary/WAR, and you have a deal, since that's the entire point of anybody's argument anyway. You know what, even that's a silly agreement, since if Noesi bombs, the Sox can just DFA him, whereas if Jimenez bombs, the Orioles are stuck. Nope, you know what, forget you and Jimenez. I can't believe you're still this hung up on him. Considering you were using ERA to rank relief pitchers of all things and never even mentioned salary when telling us Addison Reed was really a middle reliever, I am shocked now ERA doesn't mean anything. And why are so many people hung up on salary? Are you an heir to JR? You have often stuck up for Adam Dunn. He probably has about as bad of a salary/WAR as any player who has actually played the last 4 season. All I know is you did say this team would have nowhere near the record it has without Adam Dunn. Thus far in 2014 Jimenez salary $11,250,000 WAR 0.8 Dunn salary $15,000,000 WAR 0.4

QUOTE (maggsmaggs @ May 30, 2014 -> 07:43 AM) Although Law is a pompous jackass oftentimes, I do really enjoy his listen. I think he is much more realistic (thus pessimistic) on prospects and gives a much different view than the other pundit like Callis, Mayo, McDaniel, the BA Team. None of those guys ever sat in the room, and while it can be debated how much influence Law had with the Blue Jays, he at least has that inside view. I will give him credit for putting his neck on the line... if he's available and the White Sox don't select Kolek, he loses a lot of credibility, although I'm sure a good portion of his sheep would have some excuse.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ May 30, 2014 -> 08:08 AM) At the very least I can dismiss the work he did with Texas, and IMO it's almost as silly when comparing the two to count runs he gave up in those first couple starts when he hit the 4th and 5th innings and kept pitching to stretch his arm out. Why don't we make a wager. The loser has to say in his signature the other is the best poster on this site. I will say Jimenez's ERA at the end of the season will be lower than Noesi's, and we will only count Noesi's White Sox numbers.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ May 30, 2014 -> 07:41 AM) With the White Sox Noesi absolutely does. And that even undersells how he's been for us since he gave up some runs due to not being stretched out. With the White Sox, but you cannot dismiss the rest of his work. Most of his runs were given up in early innings. It had nothing to do with not being stretched out. Jimenez gave up some runs late during his first few starts. Should those not count? We will see where everything settles at the end of the season.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ May 29, 2014 -> 05:23 PM) Compared to who? We have 5 starters with a better ERA than that. Noesi, Rienzo, Sale, Danks, Quintana. Noesi didnt. Now Danks doesn't. Love him or hate him, Jimenez would have been the 3rd best starter on this team.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ May 29, 2014 -> 04:25 PM) Sure you can. But you haven't. How about a 4.98 ERA. Yeah, that would look real sexy in our rotation right about now. It actually would. Comparatively

QUOTE (IowaSoxFan @ May 29, 2014 -> 02:37 PM) There is probably a less than 40% chance that any of the pitchers reach their ceilings, if you can get the guy you originally wanted and add two more 1st round caliber players later in the draft, like Kodi Medeiros and Jacob Gatewood, I would take that as a win. Edit: I don't think this is the path the Sox will take, but I think that it should at least be in the discussion. I prefer Aiken to anyone in the draft followed by Jackson and then could care less who they take if those two are gone. I still hope the Sox get Rodon. Last seasons losing was the Rodon Sweepstakes. He wasn't injured. His offseason routine did change and he struggled out of the gate. He was getting dominant again. If the Sox get him, I believe we will all be happy they did 4 or 5 years from now. The others, I'm not so sure.

QUOTE (raBBit @ May 29, 2014 -> 03:07 PM) I don't understand this argument. Why would a team in offseason give more than desperate team in July? In Beckham's case, his spot is permitting potential future pieces from getting playing time. If you trade Beckham in July, you can give the playing time to Semien/Johnson. For one thing, your market gets bigger. Usually only contenders are picking up money during the season. And the other thing is money, although Beckham's contract isn't huge. Many teams have already spent their budget. Maybe you could get a desperate team to really pay up, but generally teams taking on money during the season, don't tend to give up much.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ May 29, 2014 -> 02:49 PM) Unless he regain 4 mph in FB velocity, I don't see any reason to believe Ubaldo has the upside to be what he once was. He is down about 1.5 MPH from last season. Last year his numbers up until this point were far worse than they are this year. He came back pretty strong. Fangraphs said last year he put up a 3.2 WAR and his performance was worth $16.1 million. Even his performance this season they claim is worth $3.5 million. You can think he won't be any better, but to say definitively he will not is what I object to. When the season is over, bury me all you want about me wanting the Sox to sign him. Not now. I am probably Beckham's biggest backer on this board. I don't think for a minute he is better than Pedroia. To take numbers with these small sample sizes, when one or two good starts or bad games switches things around, and come to 4 year conclusions is silly.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ May 29, 2014 -> 02:11 PM) This post is documented evidence that you don't even read what I write. I did read it, but when someone types this: I would agree that Dustin Pedroia "hasn't hit any better than" Dustin Pedroia you have to admit, it's a little unclear and doesn't make a lot of sense. Well, it was 4y/$50m and he hasn't pitched any better than Andre Rienzo. I think it's safe to say that there are many pitchers on that list who can be expected to pitch as well as Andre Rienzo and can be had for 4y/$50m. I would agree that Dustin Pedroia "hasn't hit any better than" Dustin Pedroia, I wouldn't say "Gordon Beckham is better than Dustin Pedroia." These are your 2 comments. If you are being consistent, if Ubaldo Jimenez at this point can only be expected to pitch as well as Andre Rienzo, wouldn't you have to say Gordon Beckham now should be expected to be better Dustin Pedroia? You can say he hasn't pitched better than Rienzo, I don't agree, but I can understand that, but you did lock his performance into Rienzo-like forever with the second part of your comment based on 10 starts.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ May 29, 2014 -> 01:52 PM) Lots of errors in your logic here, Dick Allen. Let me help you out. 1. WAR is a counting stat. Jimenez's current, barely significant advantage of 0.5 fWAR is marginalized further if you control for innings pitched. And before you argue that Jimenez should get credit for having more innings, note that Jimenez has three additional starts. Rienzo actually has more IP per start. So, on a per start basis, we're talking about a difference in fWAR of roughly 0.3. Remember this the next time you make your bimonthly post about how WAR is BS because it says a guy with 7.0 WAR is definitively better than a guy with 6.7 WAR. 2. Once again I'll point out the difference between what I type and what you claim I type: the phrase "he hasn't pitched any better than" is not the same thing as "he is better than." I would agree that Dustin Pedroia "hasn't hit any better than" Dustin Pedroia, I wouldn't say "Gordon Beckham is better than Dustin Pedroia." 3. There is a major disconnect between your understanding of the $/WAR figures your referencing and the inherent value of an individuals performance in relation to actual wins. The $/WAR figures are descriptive figures about what the free agent market chooses to pay per WAR. This does not apply, at all, to pre-free agency players and therefore cannot be used compare salaries across those player types. This is why we say "needs to do X to live up to his contract" but we DON'T say "his performance is/isn't worth having because he is paid more/less than $5-6m per WAR." This is because the free agent market is NOT the only place one can get WAR. Ubaldo's contract, in a vaccuum, could break even in free agent dollars if he averages about 2.5 fWAR per season (which, btw, he is NOT on pace to reach in this season), but in the context of roster construction, you have to compare that with what you can already receive at a much mroe efficient valuation internally (someone like Rienzo could give you, say 2 fWAR at like $200k per). The only time you'd opt for the higher rate production you'd get from the free agent is if (1) the production simply cannot be matched more efficiently elsewhere, either with a single replacement player or several, and (2) the difference you're getting is enough to make a substantial difference in the outcome of your season (like if Ubaldo was the final piece to push the Sox over the edge.) In summary, given that the marginal difference between the production of Ubaldo and that of Rienzo has been both (1) not statistically significant and (2) not even remotely close to enough to make a difference in the White Sox season, I would conclude that, for all practical purposes, the White Sox would not be any better off with Ubaldo and would have a bad contract, too. I would liken it to choosing between a hamburger for $2 and a hamburger with fries for $75. Neither will help you reach your goal weight, but at least one only cost you $2. So would that mean Beckham is better than Pedroia? The problem with your "what I typed" thing is you are basically claiming Jimenez will perform like Rienzo for the duration of his 4 year contract. I think it's safe to say that there are many pitchers on that list who can be expected to pitch as well as Andre Rienzo and can be had for 4y/$50m.

It would really be interesting to see which one of these guys with "inside knowledge and sources" really had what they claimed. But the only way that would happen is if all 3 of the pitchers were available. Frankly, right now there is probably a 95% chance the Sox will pick one of the guys the Charlotte writer listed. Any of us could come up with that list though. Some say they really want Aiken. Some say they love Kolek, some say Rodon is their man. Supposedly Hoffman was their guy until he had surgery. Sounds like a lot of insiders are full of you know what.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ May 29, 2014 -> 11:23 AM) Well, it was 4y/$50m and he hasn't pitched any better than Andre Rienzo. I think it's safe to say that there are many pitchers on that list who can be expected to pitch as well as Andre Rienzo and can be had for 4y/$50m. Using your logic, wouldn't that mean Gordon Beckham is as good as Dustin Pedroia? Rienzo FIP 4.85 xFIP 4.44 WAR 0.1 Jimenez FIP 4.22 xFIP 3.98 WAR 0.6. Yeah that's about the same. If you pay $5 million a year for a 1.0 WAR (and there has been chatter it is actually closer to $6 million), despite having a performance that is vomit-inducing, Jimenez is barely below breakeven. But I guess you throw the advanced stats out when they don't help make your point.

QUOTE (SoxAce @ May 29, 2014 -> 06:53 AM) Sanchez has never had more than 1 homer in a season in the minors. BP said he has Juan Pierre power.

QUOTE (The Ultimate Champion @ May 29, 2014 -> 12:01 PM) I'll be upset if they take Nola over any of those guys. I don't want Rodon's negotiation difficulties but the talent is there. I guess I cap it at #3 slot money and tell the kid he can either take it or re-enter the draft, just be a f***ing hardass with Borass from Day 1. I could see that. No way am I playing Borass' stupid f***ing games though, f*** that guy. Sox have a FO that likes to make fair deals and Borass with his #1 guys never ever ever even considers a fair deal. He'll ask for #1 slot money & I'd tell him to buy a fleshlight and go f*** himself. Boras can only advise. He cannot negotiate. The White Sox are one of the teams that have turned in a player for using an "advisor" as an agent. I really think it is overblown how tough of a signing he will be if he is a top 3 pick. He loses all leverage next year. Boras had Appel come back and he wound up going #1 but signed for 18% below slot.

You can't roll the dice with Hoffman. I think they said last night the full recovery rate of TJ surgery right now is 90%. You can't bet the ranch he will be a stud to begin with and he won't be one of the 10%. Ironically, if they were drafting where they normally draft, it could be a good role of the dice.

QUOTE (The Ultimate Champion @ May 29, 2014 -> 11:02 AM) Context, probably. But in reality you would want to have a 4 & 5 in case of injury or something, or just some information that comes out very near to draft day that prompts a revision/change in course. Due diligence/covering your bases and such. But overall, not sure why this guy would have information that is truly that specific. Either someone he trusts is feeding him some BS or he is probably trying to look like a shooter. The scouts might know who they like best, but I doubt they would know the order.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ May 28, 2014 -> 10:56 PM) Who is Seth Lasko? And why do you need a top 5 if you are picking 3rd? Seems this guy just wants to sound like an insider. Nothing earthshattering on that list.

One thing we all can agree on is Bellisario is one goofy looking man. He probably even looks goofier without a baseball hat as it appears he is sporting a mohawk.